NFL 2012 – Week 13, “Rooting for the House” Edition

Note: I use the LVH Lines from vegasinsider.com. The Super Contest lines are not live, but instead are set and held the entire week.

The “Super Contest” picks:
Cincinnati (-1.5) over San Diego – Even in the midst of this crap season by the Chargers I still had them favored in this game by 2 to 2.5 points. When I noticed the line I immediately thought, oh, Chargers are a great play. Then I thought back to that gutless effort by San Diego on Sunday against a Ravens team that neither wanted to be in San Diego nor attempt to win that game. And fresh in my mind was the Flacco give up 4th and 29 screen pass; though a screen pass carries the implication that there is at least some semblance of blockers out in front of the running back where as this was more of a two yard dump off that Ray Rice essentially willed his way through eight of the 11 Charger defenders for the first down. Did I mention the Chargers were gutless last weekend?

In fairness, I know what I’m get when betting on Norv, but goodness is there a head coach in the NFL who is so below average at every head coaching category? I don’t think there is, but by all means Bolt management, bring him back for another four years. The USA would do it!

Need proof, how about the lack of a timeout before halftime, which likely cost the Chargers points, or at least a chance at points. Norv steadfastly refused to call timeout even though QB Phil Rivers was screaming for one. Even the announcers were at a lost, as Ian Eagle feeble attempt to explain the non-timeout was absurd. Eagle, “Norv’s not calling a timeout here because the Ravens have their offense on the field.” WTF? Are you kidding me, Norv? If the Ravens are going to attempt a 4th and 1 from their 30 in the 2nd quarter of a game they are trailing, why would you stand in their way? Are you really worried about them scoring? Even if you plan nothing more than to run a couple safe plays, you have to call timeout there to force the opposition to punt and give yourself enough time to put some pressure on the defense. Pathetic!

Yeah, I cannot trust this Norv Turner Chargers team ever again.

Baltimore (-7.0) over Pittsburgh – Um, it’s Charlie Batch in Baltimore with the Ravens a win away from nailing the coffin shut on the Steelers in the division. In addition, dealing the Steelers another loss cripples their playoff chances. That is important to the Ravens as they have no desire to see a Roethlisberger led Steelers team that they defeated twice in the regular season, both times without the quarterback. Remember in Die Hard when John McClain didn’t kill the terrorist when he had the chance. That’s a rule in life to live by – never let someone who would should kill, live to haunt you!

San Francisco (-7.0) over St. Louis – This is a contradiction of my belief that when rebuilding a coach will focus from the division outward. The Rams are clearly rebuilding, but Jeff Fisher has the Rams playing at a very high level against the NFC West, as evidence by their 3-0-1 record against divisional foes. But this feels like a “flex their muscles” spot for the 49ers, who were out-played by the Rams in Frisco.

Dallas (-10.0) over Philadelphia – I have to admit that I am shocked by this line, regardless of how poor the Eagles are playing. The Cowboys have trouble covering any spread at home, how can Vegas give money away like this? Exactly, they’re not giving money away, they realize that the Eagles have officially quit after the loss to the Panthers and the Cowboys can throw up a big number to quiet the masses of fans clamoring for changes.

Miami (+7.5) over New England – I have always believed that there are two key spread numbers that tell the story about who to bet, with those numbers being 6.5 and 7.5. Without researching, I have blindly believed that 6.5 was a clear play on the underdog while 7.5 was an indication to make play on the favorite. Basically my logic is that why would the odds-makers not simply make a game a solid seven as opposed to adjusting the line a half point? The adjustment, in my mind, is to entice the action towards the natural comfort of the bettor. Most betters feel more comfortable laying 6.5 on the favorite for the obvious reason – they win with a touchdown margin, conversely, with 7.5, the bettor can afford a loss by a touchdown. In a nutshell, my plays are contrarian which side with the house.
Fortunately, it’s 2012 and we have the technology to research. Since 2002, teams favored by 7.5 are just 40-52 ATS, while teams receiving 6.5 points are 84-61 ATS. So, that actual numbers make logically sense to me but refute my blind theory. A number like 6.5 is frowned upon by the favorite loving general public, who are chalk bettors and can’t get their money to the window fast enough at 6.5.
A 7.5 point number is also hammered by public, chalk bettors with similar results, they don;t care about the .5 point because “the favorite is a better team and will win easily.” So, essentially what these numbers tell me is that betting the favorites will get me beat more often than not. Look at me, I’m a “sharp”!

The “Breaking the Rules” pick:
Jacksonville (+6.5) over Buffalo – I mentioned a couple weeks ago that I was done taking the Jaguars and Chiefs. Of course, that was before Chad Henne showed up to save the day in Jacksonville. So, in the interest of fairness, I have amended my rule to “I will no longer pick a team quarterbacked by Blaine Gabbert.”

One more thing on this game, why is that by the end of the year whoever is quarterbacking the Bills has less arm strength than Chad Pennington immediately after his 18th shoulder fusion surgery. Think about it – from Flutie to Van Pelt to Losman to Edwards to Fitzpatrick – each of those guys have below average arms to begin with, but by December they literally cannot throw the ball more than 15 yards. Is there something in the water in Buffalo? Is it the 100 wings or so that the quarterback of Bills is mandated to eat each week? The result of these candy-ass armed quarterbacks is that the Bills become very easy to defend even for the Jaguars.

Kansas City (+3.5) over Carolina – Yeah, I am supposed to believe the Panthers are back because they beat the Eagles on Monday. Not buying it. First off, the two touchdown passes for the Panthers last weekend looked like they were in pre-game warm-ups without a defense. And let’s look at that defense of the Panthers that allowed a rookie, making his first start, to look like Walter Payton, imagine what Jamaal Charles will do to them. Without the turnovers, they probably lose that game. Just sayin’ they aren’t good and they certainly should not be giving points to any team.

 Edit: Wow, I just heard the news on ESPN about Chiefs linebacker Javon Belcher. Terribly sad news for all parties involved. I will tell you can never understand the depths of where people will go when they lose hope. To say that this type behavior is not in everyone of us, is to say that not everyone of us has been pushed to the brink, made a terrible mistake, lost hope and completely bottomed out. Being a fan, handicapper, sports investor, soccer dad should prepare us well for bleak situations since things are never as bad nor as good as they seem. It’s important to remember that in all facets of life.

My prayers go out to the families of those involved in this tragedy.

The “PED Bowl” pick:

Chicago (-3.0) over Seattle – The big question is how much impact will not being on PEDs have on Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner? I guess we now we know why these guys are big, physical corners.
The funniest part of this story is that Brandon Marshall jumped in with the “guys are on Viagra” statement. That’s hilarious. And opens up a plethora of bad puns, “He hits you hard. . .” and “Oh no, an offside penalty on the Bears, that’s quite a boner. . .” But the reality is Viagra could in fact help an athlete. The drug is designed to expand the blood vessels, thus allowing more oxygen carried to the muscles, which might help an athlete with bursts of speed and strength. In addition to being ready immediately after the final whistle for the groupies.
I am sure the NFL is already putting together the “eunuch policy”, where a player has to prove they truly have erectile dysfunction by putting them through a series provocative tests.

The “Kick on the Balls” pick:
Detroit (-6.0) over Indianapolis – Look I have three kids, so I have seen plenty of my share of “turning of the head while sticking the foot out to trip your sibling” acts in my time. “What did I do,” is the typical response. I might even consider myself an expert. Given that there is no way Suh’s kick Matt Schuab’s balls was unintentional. I virtually guarantee Suh is a middle child.

Honestly, the Lions are a dumb team, but I don’t trust this Colts team on the road against any semi-competent team. Personally, I think Andrew Luck has hit the rookie wall, coincidentally right after I traded for him in fantasy (reason #2130 why I am not playing fantasy ever again).

And this line is way too high, I have no choice but to back the house.

The “though logic generally fails in the NFL, I will try, try again” pick:
Minnesota (+7.5) over Green Bay – Green Bay cannot protect the passer, Minnesota can rush the passer, therefore Green Bay cannot protect Rodgers from Minnesota.

The “we will make the playoffs” pick:
NY Jets (-5.0) over Arizona – What is there to like about the Cardinals this week? Sure the Jets looked bad against the Pats, but a lot teams look bad against them. Here is the deal with the Jets, they went to St. Louis a couple weeks back and spanked the Rams right after an embarrassing home loss to the Dolphins. Aren’t we essentially in the same spot for them this week? And guess what, let’s assume the Bengals, Steelers, Dolphins and Colts all lose this week, the 5-7 Jets would be just one game out of the playoffs with an upcoming schedule that includes the Bills, Chargers, Titans and Jags. I can absolutely see this team finishing 9-7 and making the playoffs.

Bottom line – the only way you can play the Cardinals in this game is if you believe the Jets have quit. I think the above contradicts that notion.

The “so what” pick:
Tampa Bay (+7.5) over Denver – I have to admit that I am very surprised by this Broncos team. I mean not as surprised as I was when I found out that Dustin from the Battle of the Seasons has done “a few gay porn movies.” Uh, wait, rewind that, what did he say? Quoting Dustin, “Frank is bringing up that I have done a few gay porn movies. So what?” So what? Wow, that was the day I realized that I am old, really old, like Methuselah old because I’m like that would be the last thing I would say if I did “a few gay porn movies.”

Not that there is anything wrong with that, but there was a day when once you’re in porn, your options were either porn or more porn. All of a sudden it’s socially accepted to be in porn? Are you telling me banks are now willing to give loans to porn actors trying to start a store named “Buck’s Super Stereo World”? Yeah, I’m old.

Anyway, this Tampa team will find a way to keep it close and if you’re so inclined maybe throw a few nickels down on the money line.

The “when do the playoffs start” pick:
Tennessee (+6.5) over Houston – I give you eight reasons why the Titans will cover – 1. Houston is bored with the regular season; 2. Matt Schuab’s balls still hurt; 3. Wade Phillips is more concerned with all goodies associated with the holiday season than he is with designing defenses to shut down mediocre offenses; 4. Tennessee is in the same boat as the Jets, except they’re thinking if we win this we have the Colts, Jags, Packers and Jets left, all winnable; 5. There is a new offensive coordinator in Tennessee, “it’s probably that pederast Loggains”, but nonetheless there’s new blood and a new system that an over-eating Phillips hasn’t thought about; 6. The Titans are 7-3 lifetime at home against the Texans; 7. Jake Locker has a 102.7 rating in his last two starts at home; and 8. The Texans are just 1-3 when giving 6.5 or more points on the road.

The “I only pick real teams” pick:

Oakland (+2.5) over Cleveland – I’ve got some balls picking the Raiders when they just suspended starting LB Rolando McClain. I mean we’ve already seen a rookie running back run for roughly 1000 yards against them with McClain, how many yards will Richardson have?

The disgruntled McCalin took to social media to vent with the following, “I can’t wait to play for a real team.” Hmm, Rolando, let’s hope that the “real team” has a need for an inside linebacker who can’t cover, runs himself into blocks, is not physical unless he holds a clear size advantage, is not a leader despite manning the “play calling” defensive position and is a cancer in the locker room. I am sure your agent’s phone will be ringing off the hook as every team in the NFL wants an ILB just like that. Don’t hold your breath Rolando!

Trust me, as I have it on good authority from my Raiders fan buddy, this suspension is a positive move for the Raiders. Plus, how pissed do you think the Raiders have to be at getting 2.5 at home against the Browns. They have to be madder than cat hater swerving in an attempt to hit a cat but narrowly missing.

The “eff the spread and pile up fantasy points or else” pick:
Washington (+3.0) over NY Giants – Look I am quitting fantasy football next season, that’s a given, but I am still playing this year and this game most likely will decide my fate in one of my leagues. Therefore, I need Manning, Nicks and Garcon to pile up fantasy points like it’s 1999. I don’t know what that means, but it seems like back in 1999 I could count on some sort of fantasy consistency.

Good luck this week.

Calling the 2011 NFL Season Wins!!

The great thing about the NFL is that it is a league that is completely predictable. That’s right despite what you might think, the NFL is predictable, in fact so much so that it is almost eerie. Need proof, take the following numbers into consideration:

Season

Home Wins

Playoff Teams

+/- 4 Wins

2010

143

8

13

2009

146

6

13

2008

146

7

12

2007

147

6

10

 

Based on the data above we can be fairly certain of a few things for the 2011 season – 1. The home teams will win somewhere between 144-146 games; 2. We will have at least 6 new playoff teams; and 3. There will be at least 12 teams that have a difference of wins from 2010 of four or more.

Now based on the above data one would agree that the NFL is predictable, however, the big catch is that while being predictable at the summary level, it is capriciously un-predictable at the detail level. Yup, that’s the problem. Unfortunately, I cannot make a wager that there will be six new playoff teams; I actually have to figure out the specific teams and make the wagers accordingly!

Armed with a wealth of data at my finger tips, I set out to do a more thorough job of predicting the season win totals for every single team using the following parameters:

  1. Six 2010 teams will not be back in the playoffs in 2011. That might be a bit low but that should be safe.
  2. 12 2010 teams will have a difference of wins equal to +/- 4. That seems like the right number. In addition, my numbers tell me that at least two teams will have +/- 6 wins category, 3-4 teams will be in the +/- 5 wins range. Also, based on the data, more teams that fall into the plus range than the minus range. Therefore, I decided that I will have 7 “plus” teams and 5 “minus” teams. Of the 7 plus teams, 4 will be +4, 2 at +5 and 1 at +6. On the minus side, I have 2 at -4, 2 at -5 and 1 at -6.
  3. Home teams will win 146 games.

Steps to essentially back into the predictions:

  1. Predict the six teams that will not return to the playoffs
  2. Determine the win difference teams on both the plus and minus sides. This is much easier than one would think. First off, you can throw out any record that would cause a team to go over 16 wins or under 0 wins. Next, since the likelihood of 0, 1, 15 or 16 wins is about once every third season, I will eliminate those records as well. Then 14 win seasons happen about once a season, so I will allow one 14-2 team, but no 2-14 teams. After applying that logic, the list of candidates is reduced dramatically.
  3. Apply wins and losses to the teams identified in step 2.
  4. Apply wins and losses to the remaining teams.
  5. Normalize home wins to 146
  6. Final sweep to make sure I have followed the rules and fix teams that are seem slightly “off”. We call this step “Colin’s personal touch”. Yup, this is where the whole thing goes up in smoke!

Step 1:

Determine2010 playoff teams that will not return, in order of confidence:

  1. Seattle (99.99% they are out of the 2011 playoffs) – Pete Carroll thinks he is still in college with roster turnover representing graduation. And two words – Tavaris. Jackson.
  2. Indianapolis (95%) – This is the equivalent of the one foot tap-in, a gimmie! But Colin, you respond, the Pats without Tom Brady almost made the playoffs in 2008. True, but the Colts aren’t the Patriots as they have more holes than Tony Montana at the end of Scarface. Further, Caldwell has a deer in the headlights look when Peyton is whispering in his ear, “Don’t worry, I got this”, I imagine this year the Colts might want to employee someone whose only job is to make sure Caldwell is still breathing on the sideline.
  3. Kansas City (75%) – Still in the gimmie range, but tougher because you just never know about San Diego, however, I expect Denver will be tougher to offset a Charger implosion, Kansas City is one of those teams that benefitted from a weak schedule, playing teams at the right time and a lucky breaks that turned losses into wins. You know what – that almost never happens in back-to-back seasons. And the schedule is much, much tougher this season.
  4. Chicago (70%) – A more of a three-foot, knee knocker for 5 skins, but no team was luckier than the Bears last season. Change two plays last year – 1. Give Calvin Johnson what was rightfully his, a touchdown in week one; and 2. Remove James Jones fumble in week three – and the Bears would have been 9-7. Throw in they got Buffalo in Toronto, eh, and caught the Dolphins in the middle of a quarterback crisis and those NFC Championship participants are sitting out the playoffs out last season.
  5. Atlanta (35%) – Now it gets tough. And leaving the Falcons out is blasphemy to most ardent football fans. Someone has to go, we know that, so it might as well be the Falcons, who are not as good as the Saints or Eagles. Plus, look at their 2010 season, they had a considerable amount of good fortune – a. The first New Orleans game where the Saints missed a game-winning 35 yard field goal; b. the improbable win against the 49ers; and c. both wins against the Bucs were crazy lucky. They will be good, but reverse fortunes in four games and that is enough to keep them home.
  6. New York Jets (20%) – If we flashback to week 16 of the 2009 season, and instead of forgoing an undefeated season by resting their starters, the Colts play to win the game, the Jets don’t make the playoffs. Good fortune, right? It’s almost unprecedented, but last season the Jets continued their run of luck, especially true in four games of extreme good fortune – 1. Denver, the game ending pass interference call; 2. Detroit, when Julian Peterson commits the personal foul that allows the Jets to kick a game tying field goal; 3. The Cleveland game when Chansi Stuckey (possible imbedded Jet?) fumbles when the Browns would have had a first down in field goal range; and 4. The Houston game where the Texans inexplicably failed to cover Braylon Edwards deep down the sideline, despite that being the only way the Jets could win the game. That’s a lot of good fortune that has gone their way over the last two seasons. I expect it to end this season. The JETS are out.

Step 2:

Determine the 12 2010 teams that will have +/- 4 wins this season:

On the “plus” side (7 teams):

  1. Houston (12-4, +6) – Gulp! My plus 6 team is the Texans, gulp! Yes, the aforementioned team that blew a game by allowing a receiver to run free deep down the sideline. No worries though, Wade Phillips is here to save the day. Gulp! OK, here is the deal – it’s no secret that the Texans have 12-win talent, the Colts are without Peyton, the Jaguars ready to move to LA and draft Andrew Luck and the Titans are, well, meh! This is the most logical team to make that this type of leap. That’s it – logic!
  2. Detroit (11-5, +5) – The bandwagon teams never seem to pan out; you know the ones with all the hype in the pre-season as “the surprise team” and “the this is their year team”. Think about it, last season it was the 49ers and we know how that ended. The season before it was the 49ers and they failed to meet those expectations. In 2008 it was the 49ers, hang on, forget all that, maybe it’s the 49ers. Plus, in the middle of last season, I called the 2011 NFC championship would be the Lions @ St. Louis, so I have to stick with my original prediction.
  3. Dallas (11-5, +5) – Loads of talent, better coaching and more favorable schedule. Add it all up, throw it some better fortune and the Pokes are +5.
  4. St. Louis (11-5, +4) – There are six very losable games in the first seven weeks, but I have a good feeling about this team. Nothing more than that, it just feels like they are ready to make that move from mediocre to playoff factor. You know kind of like the “due” theory, uh oh!
  5. San Diego (13-3, +4) – This list is filled with perennial under-achievers. San Diego is the president of that club, but if they can get off to a decent start they will roll to an easy 13 wins in a very weak division.
  6. Cleveland (9-4, +4) – I love Colt McCoy, well the post-Texas version at least. This is a very solid team and good compete for a division if the Steelers falter. By my count they lost four games last season that teams normally win.
  7. Denver (8-8, +4) – This is all about John Fox, a great coach who basically needed a change from Carolina. If San Diego falters in any way, this is the team in the NFC West that will be a surprise division champ.

On the “minus” side (5 teams):

  1. Kansas City (4-12, -6) – We already know they’re not going back to the playoffs, so we know they won’t finish any better than 8-8. Throw in the tougher schedule which knocks them down another two losses. They won’t sweep Denver (one more loss) and they won’t beat San Diego (one). Of course, they will get one of the games back against Oakland, but still I need a -6, they’re it.
  2. Chicago (6-10, -5) – Six wins seems about right for them, though if Lovie gets the hook at mid-year and Martz takes over, flip them with KC and make both teams 5-11. Yeah Martz sucks that bad!
  3. Jacksonville (3-13, -5) – And I had to struggle to find three wins. The Los Angeles Jaguars are now on the clock.
  4. Atlanta (9-7, -4) – Mentioned above. The defense is terrible. They added Julio Jones, but unless he can play corner the Falcons are going to be a lot of shootouts this season.
  5. Oakland (4-12, -4) – I flip-flopped on this one. First I had them lucky to win two games, then I talked with my buddy, who I would consider a very realistic Raider fan, and he told me that no doubt the Raiders would be “at least 9-7”. That forced me to go back to the numbers. When I did, I eventually came back to my original assessment – losing Nnamdi doesn’t improve this team (a no brainer, right?), in fact, I think it makes them significantly worse (look at me, turning into Eric Dickerson as you read this, how about this for information – “Arizona in August is very hot , back to you Al”). There are very few corners that have earned 9th level wizard status, aka lockdown corner, i.e., a team will ignore said corners half of the field. So, losing Nnamdi opens up the entire field to opponents. That isn’t good. And they lost Zach Miller, they’re most reliable pass catching threat and replaced him with Kevin Boss, who isn’t a pass catching threat. And finally, they didn’t re-up Tom Cable, right when Cable had something working in Oak-town. Makes sense, right? You haven’t sniffed .500 since 2002, so instead of rewarding the coach, you let him walk for a guy named Hue. Don’t get me wrong, I love that move, not for football reasons but because it brings “eff-Hue” into play on a weekly basis.

Here are the 2011 official NFL Standings complete with record, division/conference/Super Bowl odds, season win total:

AFC East

Colin’s Prediction

Las Vegas Hilton

Rank

Team

W

L

Div

Conf

SB

Wins

Ov

Un

1

New England

13

3

-180

225

450

11.5

100

-120

2

NY Jets

9

7

175

500

1200

10

100

-120

3

Miami

6

10

800

3000

6000

7.5

100

-120

4

Buffalo

5

11

2500

10000

20000

5.5

-135

115

 

AFC North

Colin’s Prediction

Las Vegas Hilton

Rank

Team

W

L

Div

Conf

SB

Wins

Ov

Un

1

Pittsburgh

12

4

-150

350

800

10.5

-115

-105

2

Cleveland

9

7

1000

3000

6000

7

-110

-110

3

Baltimore

9

7

130

700

1500

10

-120

100

4

Cincinnati

5

11

2800

10000

20000

5.5

130

-150

 

AFC South

Colin’s Prediction

Las Vegas Hilton

Rank

Team

W

L

Div

Conf

SB

Wins

Ov

Un

1

Houston

12

4

OFF

1100

2500

9

-150

130

2

Tennessee

8

8

OFF

5000

10000

6.5

-120

100

3

Indianapolis

5

11

OFF

1100

2500

OFF

OFF

OFF

4

Jacksonville

3

13

OFF

5000

10000

6.5

100

-120

 

AFC West

Colin’s Prediction

Las Vegas Hilton

Rank

Team

W

L

Div

Conf

SB

Wins

Ov

Un

1

San Diego

13

3

-400

450

1000

10.5

-130

110

2

Denver

8

8

800

3500

7500

6

-120

100

3

Oakland

4

12

700

3500

7500

6.5

110

-130

4

Kansas City

4

12

700

2500

5000

OFF

OFF

OFF

 

NFC East

Colin’s Prediction

Las Vegas Hilton

Rank

Team

W

L

Div

Conf

SB

Wins

Ov

Un

1

Dallas

11

5

300

900

2000

9

115

-135

2

Philadelphia

10

6

-175

350

800

10.5

-150

130

3

Washington

8

8

2200

5000

10000

6

-120

100

4

NY Giants

7

9

350

1500

3000

9

100

-120

 

NFC North

Colin’s Prediction

Las Vegas Hilton

Rank

Team

W

L

Div

Conf

SB

Wins

Ov

Un

1

Green Bay

12

4

-325

225

500

11.5

135

-155

2

Detroit

11

5

400

1200

2500

8

-160

140

3

Chicago

6

10

800

2500

5000

8

120

-140

4

Minnesota

6

10

1200

2000

4000

7

-120

100

 

NFC South

Colin’s Prediction

Las Vegas Hilton

Rank

Team

W

L

Div

Conf

SB

Wins

Ov

Un

1

New Orleans

12

4

-120

500

2000

10

-160

140

2

Atlanta

9

7

130

700

800

10

-110

-110

3

Tampa Bay

8

8

600

1500

3000

8

120

-140

4

Carolina

3

13

3000

15000

30000

4.5

-110

-110

 

NFC West

Colin’s Prediction

Las Vegas Hilton

Rank

Team

W

L

Div

Conf

SB

Wins

Ov

Un

1

St. Louis

11

5

160

2000

4000

7.5

-110

-110

2

Arizona

7

9

200

2500

5000

7.5

-110

-110

3

Seattle

5

11

900

5000

10000

6

135

-155

4

San Francisco

5

11

200

3000

6000

7.5

130

-150

 

A couple interesting notes on the futures

  • Chicago is 8-1 to win division, but 25-1 and 50-1 for conference and Super Bowl, while Minnesota is 12-1 to win division but 20-1 and 40-1 for NFC and Super Bowl. Does that mean that the books think it is more likely that Donovan McNabb can lead a team to the conference championship via the road than Jay Cutler? I imagine Culter’s family started the warm bath water and pulled blade out of the razor at reading that comment.
  • Tampa Bay is 15-1, 30-1 as the projected third best team in the NFC South, yet the projected winner of the NFC West is 20-1, 40-1. While the NFC West may be a joke, they get a home playoff game in a (outside of San Francisco) tough place to play. Oh, by the way, the last three seasons the NFC West winner has knocked off the best wildcard team in the playoffs.

Playoff predictions:

AFC:

Wildcard RoundPittsburgh over Baltimore and Houston over Cleveland

Divisional RoundNew England over Houston and San Diego over Pittsburgh (hey at least New England can finally win a playoff game, possibly putting the curse of Asante Samuel to rest)

AFC ChampionshipSan Diego over New England

 

NFC:

 

Wildcard Round Detroit over St. Louis (the streak is over, see the bookies know what they’re doing) and Philadelphia over Dallas

Divisional Round Green Bay over Philadelphia and New Orleans over Detroit

NFC ChampionshipGreen Bay over New Orleans

 

Super Bowl XLVI – San Diego over Green Bay

And the big question is – can Norv Turner lift the Lombardi trophy without help?

Finally, I am taking 20% ($2000) of my bankroll to place on futures, here are those bets:

  • Houston over 9 wins – $300 to win $200, I hate laying that kind of juice but there doesn’t seem to be any possible way the Texans don’t win at least 9 games (look at those last four lines – San Diego to win a Super Bowl and a Houston prediction that states they cannot win less than 9 games, I am crazy!)
  • Jacksonville under 6.5 – $240 to win $200 – They are on the clock. . .
  • San Diego over 10.5 – $260 to win $200
  • San Diego to win AFC and Super Bowl, $100 on each
  • Dallas to win NFC East, $100 to win $300
  • Detroit over 8 wins – $320 to win $200
  • Detroit to win NFC North – $100 to win $400, to win NFC and Super Bowl, $100 each
  • St. Louis over 7.5 wins – $220 to win $200, to win NFC and Super Bowl, $100 each

Enjoy football and remember Colin Wynner calls the winners!