2012 NFL Predictions – Week 6, “Thursday” Edition

Most years about this time, I start to whisper, “Wow, it’s already week six, this year is going by too fast!” This year, however, it’s more like, “Is it over yet?” Translation – it is getting tougher with each passing year to enjoy the NFL. The several reasons for this, but at the forefront is the reality that the league is watered down with essentially random results week in and week out. That makes it tough to be successful handicapper, fantasy player or pool participant.

Sunday afternoon I texted a buddy this message, “If I go 0-5 this week, I think I’m be done with football.” Turns out, I went 1-4, but the fact remains, I almost called it a career before finding some fire to help me move forward this week. Still, I was close. Someday, I envision myself running a rehab center for addicted fans of football – the name of the center “One Game At A Time.”

And by “calling it a career”, I mean freaking going “cold turkey” without any peripheral football – no Sunday Ticket, no NFL rewind, no football related subscriptions, no picks columns, no picks, no bets, no pools and no fantasy. Well to be honest I have about 278 reasons why fantasy football is gone after this year regardless of whether I retire or not, but you get the idea, I would watch occasionally, but watch for the purity of the game, which would put all the power back in my hands.

I no longer sit through a crappy performance by my team just because they are the final play on a three team teaser. It wouldn’t take me nince hours to vacuum a house that normally takes 1.5 hours (humble brag, right! Yeah, I live in a mansion that normally takes 90 minutes to vacuum), I wouldn’t have to watch an otherwise unwatchable Monday night game because I have fantasy player X going against fantasy player Y. And I wouldn’t have to spend the time I spend on this freaking sport!

Some day very soon, you might show up on this site to see what teams you want to fade for the week and see the following:

I’M OUT THIS BITCH!

OK, enough about me, on to the game:

Pittsburgh (-6.0) @ Tennessee – The NFL changed the Rashard Mendenhall rushing touchdown to a receiving touchdown this week. Real nice, thanks, NFL. The effects of this monumental change will be felt for years to come as all fantasy league commissioners scurry to update the week 5 stat changes. In one of my leagues a two games will be affected where both winning teams will see a win snatched from their helpless hands. Great, I already had to sweat the Sunday and Monday night games, now I have to wait out the NFL until Thursday to make sure I get the win.

The ridiculous part of this change is that it was obvious that it was a touchdown pass in live action and even more apparent on the replay, how did it get by the officials? I thought the “real” refs were back. Honestly, the real ref vs. scab ref is a little like trying to tell the difference between New Coke and Classic Coke. If I am a ardent Classic Coke drinker and you put a can of New Coke in front of me, I would rather go thirsty than drink that crap. But if you blindfold me and give it to me, I couldn’t tell the difference. That’s pretty much how I feel about the scabs and the regular refs, don’t tell me and, for goodness sake, don’t let them speak and I probably couldn’t tell the difference.

  1. Rashard Mendenhall looked fantastic last weekend, so much that I actually might recommend suffering a torn ACL in week 16 of the previous season. Kidding, kidding, but he looks faster and shifter than ever. Of course, that might be the Jonathon Dwyer and Isaac Redman effect as well.
  2. We know the weapons the Steelers have on the outside, but don’t forget about Heath Miller tonight. In fact if you have a chance to play a few props, I would strongly recommend Miller for 1st touchdown, over 45 yards and “Yes” he will score a touchdown. The Titans can’t cover anyone, but they are atrocious against the tight end.

  3. The Titans might be the worst team in the NFL, but their emotionally leader, Chris Johnson, commented this week:

    “We need somebody in this locker room to make plays and give us a spark.”

    Uh, you mean somebody like you? I mean CJ_K the Titans have all that money tied up in you, I think they expect you to make plays and give them a spark. Wow, totally clueless. If I am Titans ownership, I would be willing to give Titans coach Mike Munchak another year sans CJ_K. I have to believe CJ_K is impacting the morale and chemistry of a very young team. In fact, the Titans would be better off just cutting his lousy ass right now.

  4. Matt Hasselbeck has been a solid quarterback to back as the starter for a home team underdog over his career, but this is not the Seattle Hasselbeck, this is the “I am hanging on for a paycheck while trying to mentor a young guy into a great quarterback, so I can someday land a head coaching job and continue to be the favorite son over my d-bag brother who is a self proclaimed fantasy football expert, yet somehow pops is favoring him because he gave him Alfred Morris as a sleeper this year” Hasselbeck. Remember, when Michael Jordan went to the Wizards? Albeit smaller scale, but just as big of a drop-off.
  5. The only way the Steelers don’t cover this number is if they come out flat. I don’t see that happening. Why? Well, while it might be might be thin, I checked out Roethlisberger’s biorhythm chart for 10/12/2012. Here it is:

The above shows Roethlisberger is ready to peak physically, which is good news. He is also very high emotionally, which will allow him to withstand the numerous “you’re a raper” taunts. Unfortunately, Big Ben’s intellect is so far down that if given the Wonderlich test before the game tonight, Vince Young might look like a genius. I have a solution for that – don’t let Ben call the plays or audible. Ben never calls the plays, so that part is a non factor. In terms of audibling, the Titans won’t present anything overly complicated nor present much resistance, therefore, even poor decisions by Big Ben likely won’t cost the Steelers.

Pick: Pittsburgh -6.0

Disclaimer: I use the LVH Lines from vegasinsider.com. The Super Contest lines are not live, but instead are set and held the entire week. In cases where I’ve made a contest pick, I will use that line, as opposed to the current line. Yeah, it’s a bit of a cheat and you wouldn’t be able to get that line once you’ve printed out my picks to head to the betting window but in the rare event that I win a contest bet but caught in the middle on a live play, rest assured I will adjust my record.

NFL 2011 Week One Picks – Part II

OK, boys and girls let’s get on with the 2011 NFL week one picks. I have stared at the opening week lines for six weeks, but I know about as much now as I knew during the lockout – very little. But that won’t stop me from picking these games; it’s just a little disclaimer of “buyer beware”.

In an effort to spice things up this year, I have created the “Super Wynner” contest, which matches your truly with two of my kids. You know it’s never too early to get the kids in on the family business. In fact, they don’t remember but back when my oldest was two years old, I already was consulting her on picks. For example, let’s say the Bears and Lions were playing I would show her a picture of a Lion and a Bear and ask her who she liked better? Those were some dark handicapping days!

Officially, the entries are as follows:

Colin Wynner – “Calls the winners”; heavy; heavy favorite to win this contest

Juana Wynner – “Want winners? Call Juana Wynner”; very likely to finish last

Megan Wynner – “Tired of being a loser, let Megan Wynner make you a winner”; sleeper pick

G-Dub – “I do a 2160 and come down with a perfect winner”; the proverbial coin-flip not expected to exceed 50%

Note: I use the Las Vegas Hilton Lines from vegasinsider.com. The Super Contest lines are not live, but instead are set and held the entire week.

Megan Wynner Week One Picks

Season Totals: 1-0-0 (1.000)

Philadelphia (-4.0) @ St. Louis – I think that the St. Louis Rams will win because I like the team colors. Also I think that Rams are stronger than Eagles. So that might affect how the teams play.

Pick: St. Louis +3.5

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore (-1.5) – I think that the Pittsburgh Steelers will win because they won the super bowl in 2008. Therefore they have a strong team. So I think they will outplay the other team.

Pick: Pittsburgh +1.5

Cincinnati @ Cleveland (-6.5) – I think that the Cincinnati Bengals will win because I like their team colors. I also like their mascot and their uniforms. I think that they can beat the Indians by communicating more.

Pick: Cincinnati +6.5

Carolina @ Arizona (-7.0) – I think that Arizona Cardinals will win because they are my states team! Also they made it to the super bowl in 2008. I also like their team colors.

Pick: Arizona -7.0

Seattle @ San Francisco (-5.5) – I think that Seattle will win because I like their team colors. Also because their mascot is awesome! And I think they will be able to outplay San Francisco.

Pick: Seattle +5.5

Detroit @ Tampa Bay (-1.5) – I think the Detroit Lions will win because Tampa Bay has Geno Hayes as a weak linebacker. Therefore the Lions will be able to score lots of touchdowns! Also Detroit team colors and uniforms are cool.

Pick: Detroit +1.5

Atlanta @ Chicago (+2.5) – I think that the Chicago bears will win because bears are better than falcons. Also the Bear’s team colors are awesome! Lastly they have cool uniforms.

Pick: Chicago +2.5

The rest:

Houston -8.5, Tennessee +1.5, Buffalo +5.5, Minnesota +8.5, N.Y. Giants -3.0, Dallas +5.5, Miami +7.0, Denver -3

Season Totals: 1-0-0 (1.000)

LHSC: 0-0-0 (Tied for 1st)

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore (-1.5) – “This is the whole season right here” – expect that to be mentioned in the stands at M&T Bank stadium this weekend. Literally this is the whole season for the Ravens, it’s a much of a must-win game in week one as there ever has been. Unfortunately, this Steelers team has the Ravens number and might be best Steeler team in over a decade.

Pick: Pittsburgh +1.5

Detroit @ Tampa Bay (-1.5) – Is there anything more terrifying right now in the NFL than Suh? He’s like a cross of Breaking Bad’s Tuco Salamanca and 48 Hours Albert Ganz only if Suh got the worst parts of both those guys.

I am on record with the Lions going 11-5, but I see them taking the loss here. At the end of the year, the Lions will look back at this game as necessary to focus them for the rest of the season.

Pick: Tampa -1.5

Atlanta (-2.5) @ Chicago – So, I am in total agreement that the Bears are going to be nowhere near what they were last year. But my big question is why are the Falcons being considered a great team? What have the Falcons done? Think about it, this nucleus (Smith, Ryan, Turner and White) hasn’t won a playoff game together, yet somehow they respect like they’re the second coming the 70’s Steelers.

Pick: Chicago +2.5

Buffalo @ Kansas City (-5.5) – “Live by the ribs, die by the ribs”. As in KC lives by B-B-Q ribs and dies with Matt Cassel’s bruised ribs. If there has ever been a quarterback who needed to be 100% healthy to be 75% effective, it’s Cassel. FOUR WINS, CHIEFS, THAT’S IT – 4-12!

Interesting fact – in the Super Contest Buffalo is the most picked team. Who am I to argue with the “best of the best”?

Pick: Buffalo +5.5

Indianapolis @ Houston (-8.5) – How much is Peyton Manning worth? 9.5 points! This line opened at Indy -1. Yikes! Either way, you want to know what happens in Houston when Indianapolis visits with Manning scheduled to start at quarterback. The rest of the team hits the world famous, tastefully done strip clubs the night before. About 3AM, some rookie will ask Jeff Saturday, “Dude, shouldn’t we get home? We got a game tomorrow.” Saturday’s likely response, “Dude, relax, P’s got it.”

This week Saturday will be heading up bed checks at 9PM. I’m jumping on the Kerry Collins bandwagon.

Pick: Indianapolis +8.5

Philadelphia (-4.0) @ St. Louis – Remember what happened in the Heat’s (“dream team”) first game? They got hammered by the Celtics. Remember that the Heat ended up in the NBA Finals. As dumb as that comment by Vince Young was, it may turn out to be very prophetic. Translation – the Eagles will struggle early in the year.

Pick: St. Louis +4.0

Cincinnati @ Cleveland (-6.5) – The odds-makers cleverly posted this at 6.5, enticing everyone who looks at the Bengals as clearly the worst team in the NFL to bet on the Browns. First off, the Browns should be giving any team 6.5 points; secondly, this Bengal team is going to be a lot better than most people believe. In fact, I will call my shot right here, the Bengals will finish with at least a .500 verse the spread.

They record win number one this week.

Pick: Cincinnati +6.5

Tennessee @ Jacksonville (-1.5) – So, Peyton Manning is worth 9.5, I wonder what David Garrard is worth? Fortunately for me the budget conscience Jaguars cut Garrard this week, so we don’t have to guess. He is worth a single point – 1! Wouldn’t have been hilarious if after Garrard was cut the number went up to Jags -6?

Pick: Tennessee +1.5

NY Giants (-3.0) @ Washington – How many starting defenders have the Giants lost? Exactly. And this Skins team is under-rated.

Pick: Washington +3.0

Carolina @ Arizona (-6.5) – Look at the balls on the odds-maker at Las Vegas Hilton – everyone else has this line at 7, but this guy, with balls the size of Jupiter, is daring bettors to take the Cardinals.

Are the Panthers with Cam Newton really worse than the 2009 Panthers with Jake Delhomme? No way. In fact, at least Newton can make plays with his legs. Oh by the way, that 2009 Panther team blew the Cardinals out at UOP.

Pick: Carolina +6.5

Seattle @ San Francisco (-5.0) – The “Andrew Luck” bowl. The Jaguars are on the clock, but they just invested a #1 pick on a quarterback, which means the loser of this game will have the inside track.

But, Jim Harbaugh’s hate for Pete Carroll is greater than his love of Andrew Luck.

Pick: San Francisco -5.0

Juana Wynner Week One Picks

Season Totals: 1-0-0 (1.000)

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore (-1.5) – The Steelers are cheaters who really aren’t that good at football. I hate them because they beat the Cardinals in Super Bowl 43. The Ravens got this one.

Pick: Baltimore -1.5

Cincinnati @ Cleveland (-6.5) – I’ve never understood why someone would name a team “Browns”? It just doesn’t make any sense to me at all. Pick: Cincinnati +6.5

Carolina @ Arizona (-7.0) – Arizona is my team! Even though they suck sometimes really really bad I got to support my states team!

Pick: Arizona -7.0

Minnesota @ San Diego (-8.5) – I love Adrian Peterson! So therefore the Vikings will win because he is such an amazing player.

Pick: Minnesota +8.5

New England (-7.0) @ Miami – Boston is one of my favorite states because I love the Red Sox! Even though I’m not much of a fan of New England I think they will win. They usually dominate their games.


Pick: New England -7.0

Colin’s Comment: I guess it’s better than her stating that “being high” is one of her favorite “states”, but yikes, I guess I am left with no choice but to blame the public school system.

The Rest:

Detroit -1.5, Chicago +2.5, Buffalo +5.5, Indianapolis +8.5,Philadelphia -4.0, Tennessee +1.5, New York G -3.0, San Francisco -5.5, New York Jets -5.5, Oakland +3.0

Minnesota @ San Diego (-8.5) – I love the Chargers this year, absolutely love them. Part of that love is based on my belief that the Chargers will start fast this year. Super Bowl contenders don’t mess around with bad teams like the Vikings. Sure, I am slightly worried that the Chargers will be looking ahead to the match-up with the Patriots in week two, but come on its Donovan McNabb on road, with less than six weeks to absorb the new playbook (not even close to enough time for him).

Pick: San Diego -8.5

Dallas @ NY Jets (-5.5) – This line has moved 1.5 points in the last day, but let’s be real a 4 to 5.5 point is almost worthless. See those bookies are sharp!

Pick: NY Jets -5.5


New England (-7.0) @ Miami –
I will admit it, I had this pick from the minute I saw the opening day lines. Of course that when the line was 3.0, now at 7.0. Plus with roughly 1 out of every 1 person is betting on the Patriots (81%) and this game being on Monday night, I am a little nervous. But my logic here is that Vegas is giving this week away. It is solid logic, every company is willing to invest in a free preview in hopes that you pony up cash to buy their product. Plus, if a person is going to invest in sports this season and decides that their line in the sand is $500, how do you get them to go past their line – by taking all $500 week one or allowing them to double their money week one? The latter, of course, will cause investor to “go for the kill” and will be more likely to think he can have another “week one” to dig himself out of any hole. Not that I would know!

Pick: New England -7.0


Oakland @ Denver (-3.0) –
Love John fox, hate the Raiders. My only regret is not having this game at Denver +1.0 like it was in the pre-season. That’s the Tim Tebow factor – he is worth -4 points.

Remember sports investors, Colin Wynner calls the winners!

Pick: Denver -3.0