2011 NFL Week Seven Fantasy Football – Diamonds and Not So Rough

Now it’s time to move on to lucky Week 7 of the Diamonds and Not So Rough column. Once again I struggled with my Diamonds in Week 6 as only one of my
picks hit the 15 point mark, while once again all five of My Not So Rough players
scored under 20 points.

Week 5 Diamonds (20% wins):

  • James Jones had the TD catch I expected, but on his only catch of the game. He totaled just 10 points.
  • Greg Olsen five catches, 42 yards and a paltry 9.2 points.
  • Colt McCoy was my only hit at 22.20 and his stats were awfully close to what I predicted.
  • Michael Crabtree 9 catches for 77 yards and a TD away from making me a winner. 12.20 points was not quite enough.
  • Shonn Greene pitiful Monday night performance resulted in 7.95 points.

Week 5 Not So Rough (100% wins):

  • Brandon Marshall I said 5 for 60 and he wound up with 6 catches for 109 yards. Take out his fluke 46 yard catch and I’m pretty much right on the mark. Either way his 13.90 points made me a winner.
  • Reggie Wayne Predicted 5 for 75 and he was even worse and 5 for 58 for 8.30 points. An easy winner this week.
  • Maurice Jones-Drew I predicted 100 total yards and no TDs or 10 points. He checked in with 104 total yards and no TDs. Add in 2 catches and he had a pedestrian 10.90 points.
  • Arian Foster was even worse than I expected with 49 rushing yards and 52 receiving yards on 6 catches. No TDs led to a 11.60 week and a win for me.
  • DeSean Jackson 3 catches for 46 yards underwhelmed all of us as he was even under my lowly prediction of 4 catches for 80 yards and a TD.

As a reminder, the scoring system I will use to grade my performance is this:

  • All touchdowns 6 points
  • .04 point per yard passing
  • .1 per yard for rushing/receiving,
  • points per receptions > .25 RB/.50 WR/1.00 all others;
  • -1 per interception
  • -3 for interception return for TDs (also known as pick sixes).

Also to remind the readers for the Diamonds I’m looking for a 60% success ratio and I’m looking for the same 60% for the Not So Rough players. A Diamond must score at least 15 points in the scoring system listed above while a Not So Rough player must score under 20 to be considered a success.

Now it’s time to look at the Week 7 Diamonds:

Greg Little WR Cleveland – Breakout week coming against Seattle this week. Little had a good game against Oakland even with his stumbling out of bounds at the ½ inch line after making a wide open catch. No worries this week as he does scores a TD and adds 8 catches for 100 yards or 20 points.

Antonio Brown WR Pittsburgh – I know I’ve been touting this guy since last year, but you know what? He finally gets his dream matchup against the Arizona Cardinals secondary. He’ll have 2 long grabs with one going for a TD. 4 catches 130 yards and a score. 21 points is on the agenda for the week.

Curtis Painter QB Indianapolis – My reason for liking Painter this week is simple, I’m feeling a blowout in the Bayou and a lot of throws from Painter. 300 yards, 2 TDs and a couple of INTs are in store for Painter this week. 22 points from him and I’ll be a winner.

Brandon Marshall WR Miami – I’m flipping my perspective on Marshall this week for two reasons despite the fact that Matt Moore remains the QB. I know he’ll see a lot of Champ Bailey, but I still like the matchup and he’s playing against the team that traded him. Similar stat line to last week but add in a TD. 6 catches for 101 yards and a TD which is good enough for 19.1 points.

Kellen Winslow TE Tampa Bay – I’m looking for the silent Soldier to light up the Bears defense this week for 5 catches, 88 yards and 2 TDs. 25.8 points makes me a winner this week with Jr.

Now for the Not So Roughs:

Jason Witten TE Dallas – Usually I ignore points allowed by position stats but I watched the Rams totally shut down Finley of the Packers last week and the Ravens shut down Daniels of the Texans. So what you say? Well those two teams were 1 and 2 in points allowed to TEs. So this week I’ll buy into that theory and give Witten 4 catches for 60 yards and a TD. That 16 point performance makes me a winner.

Shonn Greene RB New York Jets – Another reversal on my part, this time to the underperforming side. The Chargers are good against the run and LT is lurking to beat up on his old team. Greene may smell paydirt, but even with a TD he will be lucky to break 15 points at best.

Matt Ryan QB Atlanta – The Falcons will take a lesson from the 49ers and realize the best way to beat the Lions is on the ground (see Frank Gore Week 6). They will also take a lesson from themselves and see they play better when the run first, pass second. Ryan will have his moments this week but it will add up to 250 yards, 2 TD and 3 INTs. That’s only 19 points in our scoring system.

Chris Johnson RB Tennessee – Many are expecting CJ2K to break out against the Texans defense, especially since he had the BYE week to get himself right. Not this week my faithful readers, as CJ2K becomes CJL (L being Roman for 50). 50 yards rushing, 50 yards receiving (including a long TD reception) bring CJ in 18 points (with his catches).

Vincent Jackson WR San Diego – Good Afternoon Vincent, welcome to the Tropical Island called Revis Island. Please enjoy your stay and your 3 catches for 60 yards and a TD. Those 13.5 points will be nice, but also low enough to make me a winner with you this week.

 

2011 NFL Week Five Fantasy – Diamonds and Not So Rough

Welcome to Week 5 of the fantasy and NFL season and the debut of my “Diamonds and Not So Rough” column. This column will focus on five players that are highly rated that I see with the probability of high scoring weeks and five players that are rated highly that in my mind will disappear this week and disappoint their owners.  These opinions are just that opinions and I’m certainly not recommending that if I happen to be down on Ray Rice for a week that you bench him and play Chester Taylor in his place (sorry Chester but you were washed up at least two years ago). Place kickers and defensive players will not be discussed in this column on a weekly basis.

The scoring system I will use to grade my performance is this:

  • All touchdowns 6 points
  • .04 point per yard passing
  • .1 per yard for rushing/receiving,
  • points per receptions > .25 RB/.50 WR/1.00 all others;
  • -1 per interception
  • -3 for interception return for TDs (also known as pick sixes).

Diamonds: I’m looking for a 60% success ratio and I’m looking for the same 60% for the Not So Rough players. A Diamond must score at least 15 points in the scoring system listed above while a Not So Rough player must score under 20 to be considered a success.

So without further adieu here are this week’s picks for Diamonds:

Willis McGahee RB Denver Broncos.

Willis is now the #1 running back in Denver, but a somewhat healthy Knowshown Moreno is lurking in the background. This week he faces the San Diego Chargers at home. The Chargers have the 5th best pass defense and the 12th ranked rush defense in the NFL. Denver has to rely a little more on their running game as putting the ball in Kyle Orton’s hands too much is proving to be their downfall. The Chargers may have their way with the Broncos but the good news is Willis can catch. Willis should crack my goal of 15 points this week with 80 yards rushing, 30 yards receiving and my bold call – a short TD pass from Tim Tebow!

Greg Olsen TE Carolina Panthers.

We all know the Saints pass defense is not very good and Panthers QB Cam Newton has established a fine chemistry with Olsen. I’ve seen at least one of his touchdowns and a few other nice catches called back on penalties. Couple his matchup, plus the face I traded him this week and Olsen is looking at a 6 catch, 100 yard receiving and 1 TD game. That’s good for 22 points in our scoring system.

Mark Sanchez QB New York Jets

Coming off a negative week in most scoring systems along with Rex Ryan’s assertion that the team will be more “ground n’ pound” makes this prediction a scary proposition.  The good news is Sanchez gets to play the Patriots horrific pass defense. 280 yards along with 2 TDs and 2 INTs make this a 21 point day for Mr. Sanchez.

Julio Jones WR Atlanta Falcons

Tune in to NBC to watch the rookie breakout game for Falcons #2 WR rookie Julio Jones. The Green Bay pass defense is struggling andAtlantais out for a little revenge after last season’s playoff whipping. My Diamond prediction for Jones is 8 catches, 125 yards and 2 TDs or close to 28 points.

Mario Manningham WR New York Giants

Mario was projected as a top wide receiver heading into the season and he’s been nothing short of disappointing so far. That will all change this week againstSeattle. They have a decent pass defense but they won’t stop Super Mario this week. 100+ yards, 6 catches and a TD are looking like conservative projections this week.

Now for the Not So Roughs:

Cedric Benson RB Cincinnati Bengals

He has a suspension looming, but something tells me it’s taking so long he will avoid the suspension. So while some will see this as his farewell for three weeks game, I just see it as another disappointing game in what’s become a pretty disappointing career.Jacksonvillecan stop the run and they will this week too. No TDs and 75 total yards for “Ced.”

Stevie Johnson WR Buffalo Bills

 

Nnamdi orAsante, pick your poison this week, Stevie. The “Dream Team” is struggling and they face pretty close to a “must win” this week. I think the Bills play them tough and beat them but RB Fred Jackson, not the passing game leads the way. Stevie will probably find the end zone for one TD but 4 catches and 60 yards receiving keep him under my goal of 20 points.

Maurice Jones-Drew RB Jacksonville Jaguars

The Bengals defense does not get a lot of respect, but they have played the run pretty good so far this year. MJD faces a bigger challenge then he’s probably expecting this week. He probably needs a lot of catches this week to exceed the 20 point barrier. I don’t see him doing that. One TD and less than 100 total yards won’t get him to 20 points.

Brandon Lloyd WR Denver Broncos

Lloyd faces a tough matchup with the Chargers 5th ranked pass defense. His QB is struggling and Lloyd has not come close to approaching last year’s numbers. In some ways WR Eric Decker has taken over as the #1 wide receiver inDenver. Lloyd will have some catches this week but he’ll be under 100 yards again and not in the end zone. Anyway you slice it it’s less than 20 points.

Chris “Beanie” Wells RB Arizona Cardinals

Coming off last week’s three TD game he’s rated high on most people’s list this week. This week he faces two challenges, one the hamstring is still not 100% and the Vikings staunch run defense. I see Beanie scoring a TD this week, but that coupled with less than 100 total yards does not equal 20 points so he’s a Not So Rough this week.