North Carolina (-7.5, O/U 69.0) @ Miami – My first though on this game was “Wow, that is a low total for a college basketball game.” Because there is no way the Canes are getting that many points at home from the UNC football team, right? This is the same Tar Heel team that hasn’t won a road game and was beaten by Wake Forest earlier this season. That team is favored by 7.5 against the Canes, in Miami, no less? Yikes, that is way too many points, but after looking to see if the entire Canes offense was hit by a bus I uncovered this nugget – the line opened at 3.5. So a four point movement, over a key number like 7 means there is some serious sharp money on this game. And even though my numbers tell me the sharps are getting spanked this season, I prefer to side with the proven handicappers over the “bet my entire bankroll on this lock” fly by night guys.
Give me the Heels and the Over. . .
Play: North Carolina -7.5 & Over 69.0
Wisconsin @ Purdue (-1.0, O/U 50.0) – It would like Christmas every week if the Huskers would play road games against ranked opponents. Unfortunately, I have to look elsewhere this week. I know the Big Ten fairly well, at least enough to know that both of these teams are garbage. But Purdue is less garbage. Plus, the Boilermakers are celebrating their most famous alum Drew Brees’ consecutive touchdown pass record.
Play: Purdue -1.0
South Carolina @ LSU (-3.0, 39.5) – My “third game flat” rule will apply to both of these teams next week when the ‘Cocks head to the Swamp to play the Gators and LSU plays Texas A&M. This week though I expect both teams to come out as normal.
Though I am having trouble figuring out why the Tigers are favored. Here are some the reasons I think the Tigers are favored in this game – 1. It’s a night game in Baton Rouge, meaning the normal home field advantage of 4 points is like a 7; 2. Les Miles doesn’t lose back-to-back games; 3. The Tigers are mad about losing last week to Florida and will take it out on South Carolina; and 4. South Carolina is not road tested.
True those are valid reasons, but give me South Carolina; they simply are the better team. Plus, check out this total. In a year where a typical week features numerous totals in the 60s and a handful in the 70s, it’s refreshing to see an old school total. This game figures to be like an old school Ravens v. Steelers game, you know before both defenses got old and couldn’t cover mediocre receivers.
USC-East will play defense, run the ball and win a close game.
Play: South Carolina +3.0 & under 39.5
Utah State @ San Jose State (-3.0, 50.5) – With conference play underway, it makes it very easy to do comparative lines amongst conference opponents. My opinion is that Vegas will make adjustments to a power ranking but generally they are slower to react, while the public is quick to over-react. Therefore, from week to week, barring injuries, we should see fairly consistent numbers that line up with previous weeks. The public over-reacts to a previous week result and hammers accordingly and viola, billions dollar casinos are built!
Well the consistency is not there in this game. And we have a recent compare as both teams just played Colorado State. San Jose State was favored by 11.5 at home, translating to true advantage of 7.5 when removing the standard HFA. Utah State, a week later, was a 12 point favorite in Fort Collins, translating to a true advantage of Utah State +16. Comparing the two teams yields a Utah State advantage of 8.5, or on the road they should be favored by 4-4.5. Yet they’re getting points. Hmm, ok, I feel a trap coming, but give me the 7.5 points of value.
Play: Utah State +3.0
Alabama (-21.5, 44) @ Missouri – Projected score for this game – Alabama 32.75 Missouri 11.25. How the hell is Missouri going to score 11.25? The answer is obvious, they can’t, but you get the point, they will be extremely lucky to score 10 points against a well rested, hungry Bama team. Plus, my guess is the SEC “old man” teams want to destroy the Tigers this season.
As you can probably tell, I hate laying big numbers, but this is a mismatch.
Play: Alabama -21.5
Good luck this week.
Note: I use the LVH Lines from vegasinsider.com.