NFL 2011 Week 16 Picks, Christmas Edition

Week 15 was one of the first times this season where I was able to watch the early games from start to finish. Why, you ask? Well, believe it or not I have a real job, which requires me to be on-call once every four months or so. On-call weekends are effectively “house arrest”, but who am I to complain when I can use that as the excuse to watch nine hours of football, while hoping not to get paged with a problem that would divert my attention.

Depending on the situation it is not uncommon to receive a dozen or pages titled, “JOB XXX FINISHED NOT OK” with additional details on the actual problem. I thought about what it would be like if this blog actually was paying the bills. I figured that I would essentially be on-call 24×7. I would receive similar pages titled “GAME XXX FINISHED NOT OK”, with details like “Hey F***Face, nice call on the Texans last night. Thanks to you, my daughter and I have cancelled our trip to Harvard and will be visiting the local community college this weekend. I feel like dunking you in a vat of sulfuric acid, allowing your outer skin to burn off exposing your flesh. And oh no, I would be far from finished with you. Next I would wash off the acid, roll you in sugar, strap you down and release a billion, yes a billion, fire ants! I am done with you.”  Maybe it’s a good thing that this blog hasn’t exploded!

And for the record, I agree with the above – only switch me with T.J. Yates, Gary Kubiak and the rest of the Texans who clearly had no desire to (a). Earn a bye in the playoffs; (b). snap the 0-fer Indianapolis streak; and (c). resemble a playoff team in any way, shape or form. The playoffs cannot get here fast enough for me to bet against them in the playoff opener. I hope the NFL makes them the early Saturday game on wildcard weekend, that way the playoff experience for them will last roughly three hours, after which they will return to the under-achieving, mediocre bunch of losers that we all know and love year after year.

T.J. Yates reminds me little of a soft Jim Everett (early 90s quarterback for the Rams, google: Jim Everett and Phantom Sack) because dude has very little courage in the pocket.  At least three times last night, he tucked and ducked with mild pressure.  And the Texans are going to the playoffs with him as their starter or Jeff Garcia or Jake Delhomme.  Cha ching!  But let’s keep it quiet, we don’t want the odds makers to figure out that the Texans are going to get killed or they will suck the value out of the line.  

Before I get to the  week 16 picks, I thought I would share running log documenting my thoughts for the early games last week, enjoy:

11:04 AM – Rams out in throwbacks – now they just need to throwback to ’99 Warner, Holt and Bruce to give them a chance. Based on the first three plays of the game – the Rams are easy winners today – they look fired up to end this season on a positive note. And they have the original beast Steven Jackson.

11:05 AM – Two early turnovers for Minnesota and Carolina– both teams are touchdown underdogs – both need to score a quick easy touchdown, which would be a good sign for the cover.

11:07 AM – Can we please get Joe Webb in the game – Ponder is horrible! remember that great field position for the Vikings? It ends with a single yard gained and disappointing field goal. Field goals for the underdog is finding out your gas gauge is broken halfway between gas stations 100 miles apart. You know it’s not going to be enough – especially against the Saints!

11:09 AM – Touchdown, Panthers! I loved them today, you know because it just felt like the spot where the Texans would be flat and the fact the Panthers never quit coming at you.

11:10 AM – Ahh, that’s the Rams I know and love – drive stalls at mid-field.

11:11 AM – Kansas City is on the 1, opening drive of the game. Is this the day? Quick question for you aspiring coaches out there, leaving aside the fact that going for the touchdown on 4th and goal from the 1 is always the correct decision, let’s focus on the other variables – huge underdog at home, virtually nothing to play for, interim coach with nothing to lose and you won’t win this game with field goals – given those, you absolutely go for this, right? Not Romeo Crennell, he kicks the field goal.

11:13 AM – The Redskins are in the red zone looking to go up early on the Giants; while the Bears Johnny Knox does his best Marion Barber impersonation by fumbling deep in Bears territory, oh wow, he also did his best Gumby impersonation, dude’s spine was curved backward like the letter C. I am not sure this Bears team wants to make the playoffs. Field Goal for Washington, 3-0.

11:15 AM – The Bengals look like crap on their first possession, but they get bailed out by a rougher the passer call. Then the Bengals hit s deep pass to Aj Green, forget about this game – easy money, if you’re on the Bengals! Wow, Green just made two great catches in the end zone but both were out of bounds – that dude is the real deal!

11:19 AM – Mid way through most of the early games and the touchdown to field goal ratio looks like Ryan Leaf career TD-to-INT ratio – 1 to 4.

11:21 AM – Hakeem Nicks just dropped a sure touchdown, that won’t make Nicks fantasy owners very happy. I can’t tell you how great it is to not have anything on the line fantasy wise this week. I don’t have to worry about the Bengals covering the spread but needing AJ Green to not score. Fantasy clouds so much that it is nice to not have to worry about it for a weekend.

11:24 AM – The Bears hold the Seahawks to a field goal after the Hawks had a first and goal at the one, no Skittles for you Marshawn!

11:25 AM – I see the Vikings haven’t shored up that secondary problem of letting WR run free down the field – Brees to Meachem for a long Saints TD. You know because daring a quarterback to throw deep to a wide open receiver works really well in Pop Warner but not so much in the NFL.

Megan Wynner’s Week 16 Picks

Oakland @ Kansas City (-2.5) – I think that Kansas City will win because they have won many games this season.
Pick: Kansas +2.5
Denver @ Buffalo (-2.5) – I think that the Buffalo Bills will win because they have done well in this season so far. Also, I think that buffalo are stronger than broncos so they can destroy Denver!

Pick: Buffalo-2.5

Miami @ New England (-9.5) – I think that the Miami Dolphins will win because I like dolphins. Also because they have done better than New England this season!

Pick: Miami -9.5

Atlanta @ New Orleans (-7.0) – I think that the New Orleans Saints will win because they have a strong team!

Pick: New Orleans -7.0

Jacksonville @ Tennessee (-7.5) – I think that the Jacksonville Jaguars will win because they have done much better than Tennessee this season! So basically the Tennessee Titans will be destroyed!

Pick: Jacksonville +7.5

Colin’s Comment: And you thought the Bucs had mailed in the season! I am always a little skeptical when Megan has the exact same games as Juana. Something stinks in Wynner-ville!

The rest:

Cincinnati -4.5, Cleveland +13.0, N.Y. Jets -3, Washington -7, Carolina +8, Pittsburgh -12.5, Detroit -2.0, Seattle +1.0, Dallas -1.5, Chicago +12

11:28 AM – The Bears commit a personal foul on the successful field goal attempt, the Hawks take the points off the board and now Marshawn is feeding his gold grill with a handful of Skittles. I think most Bears fans would consider it a net gain if Janikowski kicked them in the balls but they got to call this season done right now!

11:31 AM – A penalty nullifies that previous Saints touchdown, for roughly six minutes real time – 7-3, Saints – Brees to Lance Moore.

11:32 AM – Bizzarro day in the NFL – Colts lead Titans, Packers look like absolute crap and are down 3-0. Right now this Packers team couldn’t beat a high school team. If the Chiefs beat the Pack, I am going to claim at least a little bit of it after boldly predicting the Raiders would beat them last week. Many of the same reasons apply – out of conference, lack of focus, wanting to lose a game so they can rest players – especially with the injury to Jennings last week – now 6-0 Chiefs. The thing is the Pack is one play away from leading a game they have no business leading.

11:36 AM – No teams in the Red Zone right now, so here is something I need from DirecTV’s Sunday ticket – they have the GameMix channel which displays up to seven games along with the Red Zone channel in eight equal grids for the early games. However, the late games usually have less than five games do DTV will split the screen four ways, thus making the grid big enough to actually watch without going blind. My idea is for DTV to give the viewer the ability to control the split screen anyway they want and place any game in the empty grids. For example, I could make a primary grid of half the screen and four mini grids in the other half. Then I could switch out the games as I see fit. Come on DirecTV, make it happen!

11:38 AM – Oh wow, the Bears just recovered a fumble for a touchdown – 7-7! The play itself was one of the better examples of lack of field awareness I have ever seen. It featured captain oblivious, Tavaris Jackson, sitting in his end zone surveying the field like he had his red “don’t touch me” jersey on, then BAM, sack-fumble bye-bye lead!

11:40 AM – Watching Rodgers today is like watching paint dry – wow, buddy you have no idea the wrath coming your way from the fantasy community, you’re killing a million fantasy geeks today Aaron!

11:42 AM – Wow, what a surprise Eli Manning and the Giants struggling at home – down 10-0, though I don’t think Moss got two feet in bounds! Let’s see if Coughlin challenges! Nope good catch! Let’s see if Coughlin challenges!!

11:45 AM – 14-0 Panthers over Texans, I guess clinching a playoff berth made their season – bye weeks in the playoffs are over-rated anyway!

11:46 AM – I’ve watched about three Packer pass plays in the Packers/Chiefs game and two of them have featured Jermichael Finley drops – he has been horrible lately!

11:47 AM – CJ Spiller sighting in the Bills/Dolphins game – I would love to see Spiller come out with 200-3TD type of game and the eight fantasy owners who are playing against him can whine all off season. While I can openly admit I am a fantasy whiner, I delight hearing other people whine about their fantasy teams – I know that’s mean, very mean.

11:49 AM – The Packers have dropped eight passes in a little over a quarter – Finley the leader with three, though one of them would have been a great catch but count me among the people who believe that if you make millions to play a game and you’re considered the best in the world, you should make tough catches look routine. The play to Finley would have been made by Joe Blow in a Sunday morning pick-up game one out of five times, therefore a freak like Finley should make that catch every time!

11:52 AM – Man, Kyle Orton is taking it to the Packers, he must still harbor some of that Chicago Bearian hatred for the Pack! And Jimmhy Graham with a touchdown that puts the Saints up by .5.

11:53 AM – This first half is shaping up to be the mother lode of second half bets on alleged better teams needing to only win the game to cover a 2nd half – Texans, Packers and Giants.

11:59 AM –When did the Vikings sign Hank Baskett? The Saints try a surprise on-side. Joe Webb is in the game, Joe Webb is in the game! Finally, we can salvage a cover for the Vikings now. Oh, and the Redskins now lead the Giants 17-0. Toby Gerhart scores a touchdown to bring the Vikings within a point. Cue the Adrian Peterson fantasy owners whining about his fantasy performance today.

12:04 PM – I see Romeo Crennell hasn’t changed much – now he goes for a fourth and goal at the 1, up 6-0, when a field goal would give you a two score lead! Look I hate the call to kick the field goal, but if you have already established that you’re a pussy, why change now? Predictably, they don’t convert, just watch the Packers will lead this game 7-6 at half.

12:10 PM – I played the Bengals primarily because the Rams are so wretched. I should have thought about how bad the Bengals have been over the past month.

12:13 PM – Nice job, Pierre – Garcon fumbles at the Colts 40, the Titans will now go into halftime with the lead.

12:15 PM – The Panthers go up 21-0 on the Brockel TD run. Brockel? Dammit, I was going to pick that guy up and play him this week. Cue the fantasy queer complaining about Brockel getting a touchdown and not Cam Newton.

12:20 PM – 6-3 Rams at half – it’s the throwbacks.

12:22 PM – 6-0 Chiefs at halftime – it could be 21-0, but then that wouldn’t be the Chiefs, would it. This game is meaningless to the Packers and they’re playing like it.

12:36 PM – Back after my halftime. I made a couple adjustments that really hurt me in the first half, most notably I will not use the “Q” word when referring to fantasy owners. Packers first play of the second half looks like they got lit up at halftime by McCarthy. T-Minus five minutes until the Packers lead 7-6.

12:39 PM – Uh, check that last comment, now it’s more like I need to McCarthy get off his knees because he’s blowing the game! McCarthy is re-writing the book on “how to lose but make it look like we are trying, so we can get valuable rest and avoid any injuries”. The Packers are already giving a half-ass effort while the Chiefs, at least defensively, are gambling to win. Facing a third and one, why not play-action and go deep? I mean when Kuhn is lined up in the backfield it was obvious what they are going to do. Even Rodgers was disgusted with that play call. Wow, there is very little doubt in my mind that McCarthy feels like a loss here is a benefit to his team.

12:42 PM – Eli Manning is worthless today! A pick to start the second half.

12:44 PM – Really bad play calling by the Redskins bails out Eli – maybe the Redskins hate the Cowboys more than the Giants! Three straight runs and a field goal after the pick!

12:51 PM – So, it was 15 minutes until the Pack took the lead 7-6. Remember that bit about the Pack losing today, yeah you can’t forget about that. Rodgers to Driver. And that erases Brett Favre’s green Bay TD pass record. Oh don’t worry Favre you still hold the interception record.

12:53 PM – Uh no, Saints score, 2 yard touchdown to John Gilmore, who was one of three Saints wide open in the end zone. Wasn’t Leslie Frazier a defensive coach?

12:54 PM – The Colts take the lead over the Titans – you know what the Colts and the Chiefs should be playing each other today, as should the Titans and Packers. At least we could avoid the Titans and Packers game!

12:56 PM – Brandon Marshall with a 65 yard touchdown in the snow. Man, the Bills started out like a slightly above average Wonderlic and have now fallen into the Vince Young territory. This Dolphins team might one of the top teams in the AFC, sadly will not get to see them in the post-season because of three ridiculous losses.

12:58 PM – Ugh, I see the Bears have caught Vikingitis, as they fail to cover Ben Obanmananobi-wan. First and goal at the two. Anyone want to bet that Marshawn Lynch gets the touchdown here. Isn’t it funny how certain teams are so predictable inside the 10, like the Saints never run inside the 10 on first down. I am not sure if that is because Payton thinks it is more efficient to pass or if he owns Brees in a dynasty league. Yep, Marshawn in the end zone. You know what Marshawn Lynch is like the poster child for NFL Fantasy Football 2011. No one thought this guy would do much, and if they claim they did they’re a damn liar, but now he is dominating the last few weeks and might make the All-Fitzgerald fantasy team.

1:01 PM – Kyle Orton just stood in the pocket for seemingly an eternity on third down no less and finally found an open receiver for a first down. The tackle responsible for blocking Matthews should mock him by doing his dance every time he completely stifles him like he just did.

1:03 PM – Hey, there is something you don’t see everyday a Marion Barber rush without a fumble.

1:04 PM – Seattle 21-14 after Caleb Hanie throws the ball right to the belly of Red Bryant, a 900 pound defensive linemen, who scampers into the end zone. Yeah, the playoffs are not in the cards for the Bears this season.

1:06 PM – Fitzpatrick just overthrew Steve Johnson, who was 10 yards behind the defense, by 10 yards. After the play Fitzpatrick stuck up his middle finger and mouthed the words, “FU Colin Wynner! How do you like that arm?” Seconds later Drew Brees under throws a wide open Robert Meachem. In fairness to Drew he had to think that the invisible man was deep for the Vikings, because I am sure he could not believe that Meachem was that open. Honest mistake, but watch some film Drew, it happens to the Vikings every week at least a dozen times.

1:09 PM – I think we have a little Favre thing going on in Tennessee with Hasselbeck. He just threw a pick-6 to give the Colts an 11 point lead, but somehow he won’t come even though Locker has been impressive. I have always thought that Hasselbeck was a selfish prick, now I think it’s confirmed.

1:11 PM – Chiefs go up 9-7, Saints go up 35-13, as the Vikings match their covering incompetence with equally incompetent tackling while Lance Moore scoots 40 yards for a touchdown. Lance Moore = Marshawn Lynch.

1:15 PM – Underdogs are ruling the day – eight games, seven dogs covering. Including three outright winners of spreads over 6 – Washington, Carolina, Kansas City and Indianapolis.

1:19 PM – Redskins go up 23-3. I am wondering how Eli plays next week when the Giants travel to New York to play the Jets.

1:22 PM – For the first time in 20 games the Packers are trailing heading into the 4th quarter. Wow that is impressive. And the team they choose to trail is – the Chiefs. That’s like a girl saving her virginity through the captain of the football team in high school, then losing it to some band geek first year in college. Horrible!

1:28 PM – You know what else pisses me off? The fact that the Saints can be such an effective screen team – like shouldn’t that be a point of emphasis for the opposing defensive coordinator. I am sure it is, but being an NFL head coach is like being a baby-sitter since most of those defensive players are ignorant Neanderthals.

1:31 PM – Ok, now there is no doubt at all that McCarthy wants to lose this game. The Chiefs just completed a pass to the two yard line, but at the end of the play the receiver fumbled the ball out of the end zone, which should be a safety. Somehow the officials missed the play, yeah I know, what a surprise. Anyway McCarthy with a full complement of challenges and timeouts doesn’t challenge a game changing play. He wants to lose. And now I am off on a rant – look I don’t really care if the Packers win or lose, in fact I picked the Chiefs so I would prefer they cover. But quoting the cook from Vision Quest, “you only get a few chances at greatness”. You know what, most people can’t tell you who won the 2002 Super Bowl, because it wasn’t memorable, but those same people can tell you that the 1972 Dolphins went undefeated! When you have the chance, you owe to yourself to go for it. If you don’t, well then God help you, because the football gods will not be happy. Today is the day, I know for sure that the 2011 Packers will not win the Super Bowl! Well, unless they come back to win this game and actually do “go for it”.

1:35 PM – The Giants are threaten to pull with 13 points of the Redskins. Being a Giants fan must be like living with a alcoholic, sober they’re great, but when drinking they can get a little mean.

1:36 PM – The Colts are up 20-6, can we please see Jake Locker. I will repeat the same thing for the Colts, when you have a chance do to something memorable, you do it.

1:38 PM – It might just be me, but I seem to remember Reggie Bush riding the bench early in the year for the Dolphins. Right? I mean if that little girl, Daniel Thomas, didn’t have to nurse that tender nipple (hamstring) for roughly five weeks does the Reggie Bush era ever happen? The guy is killing it right now, but beware next fantsy qu, uh, dude.

1:41 PM – Nice job, Pierre! Thomas that is – touchdown for him as the Saints go up 42-13. I said that game is over. Meanwhile the Bengals go up 20-6 over the Rams. Please, Rams, hire Jeff Fisher and draft Justin Blackmon!

1:43 PM – I really think that Joe Webb covers that spread for the Vikings, but Ponder sucks! Yeah, that didn’t make sense but Ponder sucks. Pretty much, Ponder sucks!

1:45 PM – Did Solomon Wilcotts just say the Bills need three scores to catch the Dolphins? Yep, he sure did. I guess the ability to solve simple math problems isn’t a requirement to work as a color guy for CBS. Solomon, it’s 23-7 Miami, which is difference of 16 points. Now if Buffalo can get 8 points per touchdown and successfully two point conversion, how many scores do they need?

1:48 PM – Let’s catch up on some scores – Seattle 31 Chicago 14, bye-bye Bears! Kansas City is now up 19-7, I guarantee the Packers come right back and score a touchdown to make it close. McCarthy has to try and make it look good. Doom on you McCarthy!

1:50 PM – I just noticed the Texans are back in the game against Carolinal, 20-13 now! And the Titans score a touchdown – Nate Washington from, yeah, Jake Locker. Eff U Tennessee letting that jackass Hasselbeck stay in the game long enough to lose to the Colts. Enjoy the playoffs from home, losers.

1:53 PM – Maybe Solomon is clairvoyant and he knew that the Bills would score and miss the two point conversion because that is exactly what happened and now the Bills will, as it turns out, need three scores.

1:57 PM – Surest sign that apocalypse will be here today – Reggie Bush has over 200 yards rushing today. And sure enough the Packers drive down to score a touchdown – 19-14 with the two minute warning and all three timeouts left.

1:59 PM – Toby Gerhart pours salt in the AP owners wound as he scores his second touchdown of the day. But the Saints cover easily – loss for me.

2:02 PM – The Packers can kick deep, which is the smart move by a coach that wants to win, but a coach that wants to lose will onside here. Yep, onside attempt and it fails. Good luck trying to repeat effing McCarthy. The best future bet available right now is the AFC +4.5 in the Super Bowl, because that is solely based on the Packers being the representative in the Super Bowl. So, we know that the Packers are not winning the Super Bowl this season, so if they win the NFC, it’s a cover for the AFC regardless of the actual SB spread. But let’s say they lose in the NFC playoffs – well, the Patriots would be a slight favorite over the Saints and a fairly substantial favorite over the 49ers, which opens up a huge middle opp.

2:05 PM – Game over – Packers lose the Super Bowl. Seriously Green Bay get together a lynch mob and beat the piss out of McCarthy tonight!

2:07 PM – Holy crap, the Seahawks are up 38-14 over the Bears.

2:15 PM – Early gams over – here are some highlights:

  • The four team money line parlay of Chiefs, Panthers, Redskins and Colts had to pay some astronomical odds.
  • Guys who better watch out for crazed fantasy quee, uh guy, Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Hakeem Nicks and Caleb Hanie.
  • Houston is one and done in the playoffs, they are now looking at the Jets in the first round, which is a terrible match-up for them.
  • Seattle might sneak into the playoffs, which would give the much maligned NFC West two playoff teams.

I went 2-0 in the Super Contest – Bengals and Panthers winning. Pats, Jets and Cardinals can make it a perfect day.

Here are the Super Wynner standings after week 15:

The Super Wynner Contest Standings Week 15
Contestant Last Week Record
G-Dub 9-5-2 124-93-7 (.569)
Juana Wynner 8-6-2 114-103-7 (.525)
Colin Wynner 7-7-2 107-110-7 (.493)
Megan Wynner 5-9-2 105-112-7 (.484)

Much thanks to Ken Whisenhunt and the Jets for costing me two games in the Super Contest.

LVHSC: 3-2, 33-39-3 (Tied for 408th)

Note: I use the Las Vegas Hilton Lines from vegasinsider.com. The Super Contest lines are not live, but instead are set and held the entire week.

Oakland @ Kansas City (-2.5) – My buddy Randy, who is a huge Raider fan, has been telling for weeks that the Raiders will crush the Chiefs in this spot. He is the biggest, and quite possibly the most knowledgeable, Raider fan I know so I am inclined to trust him here. But you know what I don’t think the Raiders have the horses here, it’s just not going to happen for them this year.

G-Dub’s Week 16 Picks

Denver, Detroit, Kansas City, Arizona, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Tennessee,
NY Giants, Minnesota, St. Louis, New England,
Dallas, Seattle, Chicago, Atlanta

Pick: Kansas City -2.5

Denver (-2.5) @ Buffalo – Look this Bills team is dead. Couple that with the fact the nasty Buffalo weather isn’t going to affect Tebow’s accuracy one bit but it will have a major impact on the candy-ass armed Ryan Fitzpatrick and this game won’t be close.

Pick: Denver -2.5

Jacksonville @ Tennessee (-7.5) – Yeah, I trust a hobbling, worn out, candy-ass armed Matt Hasselbeck to cover a 7.5 point spread. Plus, I think Blaine Gabbert will play a great game this weekend, since ESPN analyst Tim Hasselbeck essentially called Gabbert a pussy this week.

Pick: Jacksonville +7.5

Arizona @ Cincinnati (-4.5) – This is the “it’s just the spot” game of the week. The Cardinals have played back-to-back-to-back emotional games – two in overtime, therefore, it’s just the spot for them to lose and lose big.

Pick: Cincinnati -4.5

Miami @ New England (-9.5) – So, I was watching the replay of the Pats game and on the touchdown pass to Ocho-Cinco the Denver safety sold out for the flat route to Welker, even though Welker was covered. My theory is that during film study the defensive coaches told the Broncos defense that “when 85 is in the game they don’t throw to him, but use him as a decoy for the flat route to Welker”. The safety seeing 85 in the game remembered what coach told him and jumped the flat. Now the funny part of that is just two years ago Ocho Cinco was a premeire receiver now he is simply known as 85, which I guess was hi goal all along.

Pick: Miami +9.5

Cleveland @ Baltimore (-13.0) – You know what – “F*** the F***ing Harbaugh brothers! F*** ’em all! I’ll bury those cockroaches.” Thanks as always to Tony Montana. Give me the feisty Browns.

Juana Wynner’s Week 16 Picks

Oakland @ Kansas City (-2.5) – Kansas City has a pretty strong offensive line. They can hold people off and then have their running back run the ball or complete a pass. They are not good under intense pressure though. This is just like Ozzy in the last challenge of Survivor. He was under pressure to win the challenge to get immunity and he totally choked. This is how I feel Kansas City will be when they play this week.
Oakland +2.5
Denver @ Buffalo (-2.5) – The Bills do not have a strong team at all. They have a few decent players who can run the ball but nothing compared to other teams. This team is like the Savaii tribe on survivor. They had one person on the tribe, Coach, who led the whole team. He would win the challenges for his team and control them. If he didn’t like something it wasn’t going to happen. This is exactly how the Bills are; they only have a few players who can make something happen.

Denver -2.5

Miami @ New England (-9.5) – Tom Brady is ranked #1 in the NFL. He is a very strong quarterback who starts a lot of the plays and gets the ball up field. Coach, in survivor, was just like him. He would make his team successful because of what he would do. He was always coming up with a strategy and leading his teams to victories.

New England -9.5

Atlanta @ New Orleans (-7.0) – The Falcons have Mike Smith as their head coach. He’s not bad but he’s not the brightest tool in the shed. When the Falcons played the Saints he totally cost them all of their chances of winning. When they were on their own 29 yard-line with inches to go he told them to go for it. They lost by a field goal. This coach is like Cochran from survivor. He made a choice to switch over to the Savaii tribe and then he got voted off a few days later. Stupid decisions like that cost him his whole game.

New Orleans -7.0

Jacksonville @ Tennessee (-7.5) – Starter Chris Johnson is not a very good player. He has very little yards this season and I’m pretty sure that he won’t put up any more in this game. Chris is just like Rick in Survivior. Rick did nothing the whole game and he still made it to the final 5. Chris Johnson still puts up some numbers but nothing like other running backs.

Jacksonville +7.5

The rest:

Cincinnati -4.5, Cleveland +13.0, N.Y. Jets -3, Washington -7, Tampa Bay +8, Pittsburgh -12.5, Detroit -2.5, San Francisco -1, Dallas -1.5, Chicago +12

Pick: Cleveland +13.0

NY Giants @ NY Jets (-3.0) – My favorite fact about this game is that it is technically a road game for Eli, so maybe, just maybe he will overcome those Meadowlands demons. Though I doubt it because this seems par for the course for the Jets – back into the playoffs, get a gift-wrapped matchup in the first round, play a great game against a rival and lose in the AFC Championship game. Goodness, I hate reruns!

Pick: NY Jets -3.0

Minnesota @ Washington (-7.0) – No Joe Webb, no chance!

Pick: Washington -7.0

Tampa Bay @ Carolina (-8.0) – I don’t want to do this, but I simply cannot allow myself to be fooled by the Raheem Morris Bucs any longer. But I have to admit those eight points are very tempting, until it’s 21-0 at the end of the first quarter. At that point I am pulling an Albert Brooks in Lost in America with my book, “Uh, listen as a marketing ploy, just give me my money back!”

Pick: Carolina -8.0

St. Louis @ Pittsburgh (-12.5) – No Ben, no problem! Listen this Rams team has a chance at the number one overall pick, which can bring in the type of haul that the talent depleted Rams need to turn that franchise around. Trust me, they won’t take any chances in this game that Kellen Clemens catches fire late, they will mail this thing early and often. You get the picture!

Pick: Pittsburgh -12.5

San Diego @ Detroit (-2.0) – This season’s wild card round is setting up to be one of the most lucrative weekends of Colin’s young life. I cannot wait to bet against teams like the Texans and Lions. Yeah. I think they suck!

Pick: San Diego +2.0

San Francisco (-1.0) @ Seattle – Frisco is coming off a Monday night physical battle with the Steelers, the Seahawks are coming off practice against the Bears. Plus, this Seahawk team is secretly pretty good! Bonus: Marshawn Lynch scores a rushing TD this weekend.

Pick: Seattle +1.0

Philadelphia @ Dallas (-1.5) – Factors working against the Cowboys include, 1. It’s December; 2, Sammy Morris, who wasbn;t good enough to be part of the 15-head monster in New England, is now the starting running back; and 3. Jerry Jones is scared of the Eagles. Screw that, the Cowboys find a way!

Pick: Dallas -1.5

Chicago @ Green Bay (-12.0) – I am taking the Bears for one reason and one reason only – the fact that the 49ers are going to lose on Saturday which means the Packers will have home field wrapped up. And that means that the McCarthy led Packers will pack it in. I cannot wait to bet against the Packers in the playoffs.

Pick: Chicago +12.0

Atlanta @ New Orleans (-7.0) – I would love to see the Falcons go into New Orleans and smack the Saints around, but my guess is it won’t happen. Yeah, the Saints are the play here and I will give you the lock of the century – New Orleans second half! Take them no matter, the Falcons are exceptionall early in games, but once Matt Ryan has to make adjustments they go to hell.

Pick: New Orleans -7.0

Colin Wynner calls the winners! Good Luck to all! And Happy Holidays to all!