2012 NFL Predictions – Week 6, “Thursday” Edition

Most years about this time, I start to whisper, “Wow, it’s already week six, this year is going by too fast!” This year, however, it’s more like, “Is it over yet?” Translation – it is getting tougher with each passing year to enjoy the NFL. The several reasons for this, but at the forefront is the reality that the league is watered down with essentially random results week in and week out. That makes it tough to be successful handicapper, fantasy player or pool participant.

Sunday afternoon I texted a buddy this message, “If I go 0-5 this week, I think I’m be done with football.” Turns out, I went 1-4, but the fact remains, I almost called it a career before finding some fire to help me move forward this week. Still, I was close. Someday, I envision myself running a rehab center for addicted fans of football – the name of the center “One Game At A Time.”

And by “calling it a career”, I mean freaking going “cold turkey” without any peripheral football – no Sunday Ticket, no NFL rewind, no football related subscriptions, no picks columns, no picks, no bets, no pools and no fantasy. Well to be honest I have about 278 reasons why fantasy football is gone after this year regardless of whether I retire or not, but you get the idea, I would watch occasionally, but watch for the purity of the game, which would put all the power back in my hands.

I no longer sit through a crappy performance by my team just because they are the final play on a three team teaser. It wouldn’t take me nince hours to vacuum a house that normally takes 1.5 hours (humble brag, right! Yeah, I live in a mansion that normally takes 90 minutes to vacuum), I wouldn’t have to watch an otherwise unwatchable Monday night game because I have fantasy player X going against fantasy player Y. And I wouldn’t have to spend the time I spend on this freaking sport!

Some day very soon, you might show up on this site to see what teams you want to fade for the week and see the following:

I’M OUT THIS BITCH!

OK, enough about me, on to the game:

Pittsburgh (-6.0) @ Tennessee – The NFL changed the Rashard Mendenhall rushing touchdown to a receiving touchdown this week. Real nice, thanks, NFL. The effects of this monumental change will be felt for years to come as all fantasy league commissioners scurry to update the week 5 stat changes. In one of my leagues a two games will be affected where both winning teams will see a win snatched from their helpless hands. Great, I already had to sweat the Sunday and Monday night games, now I have to wait out the NFL until Thursday to make sure I get the win.

The ridiculous part of this change is that it was obvious that it was a touchdown pass in live action and even more apparent on the replay, how did it get by the officials? I thought the “real” refs were back. Honestly, the real ref vs. scab ref is a little like trying to tell the difference between New Coke and Classic Coke. If I am a ardent Classic Coke drinker and you put a can of New Coke in front of me, I would rather go thirsty than drink that crap. But if you blindfold me and give it to me, I couldn’t tell the difference. That’s pretty much how I feel about the scabs and the regular refs, don’t tell me and, for goodness sake, don’t let them speak and I probably couldn’t tell the difference.

  1. Rashard Mendenhall looked fantastic last weekend, so much that I actually might recommend suffering a torn ACL in week 16 of the previous season. Kidding, kidding, but he looks faster and shifter than ever. Of course, that might be the Jonathon Dwyer and Isaac Redman effect as well.
  2. We know the weapons the Steelers have on the outside, but don’t forget about Heath Miller tonight. In fact if you have a chance to play a few props, I would strongly recommend Miller for 1st touchdown, over 45 yards and “Yes” he will score a touchdown. The Titans can’t cover anyone, but they are atrocious against the tight end.

  3. The Titans might be the worst team in the NFL, but their emotionally leader, Chris Johnson, commented this week:

    “We need somebody in this locker room to make plays and give us a spark.”

    Uh, you mean somebody like you? I mean CJ_K the Titans have all that money tied up in you, I think they expect you to make plays and give them a spark. Wow, totally clueless. If I am Titans ownership, I would be willing to give Titans coach Mike Munchak another year sans CJ_K. I have to believe CJ_K is impacting the morale and chemistry of a very young team. In fact, the Titans would be better off just cutting his lousy ass right now.

  4. Matt Hasselbeck has been a solid quarterback to back as the starter for a home team underdog over his career, but this is not the Seattle Hasselbeck, this is the “I am hanging on for a paycheck while trying to mentor a young guy into a great quarterback, so I can someday land a head coaching job and continue to be the favorite son over my d-bag brother who is a self proclaimed fantasy football expert, yet somehow pops is favoring him because he gave him Alfred Morris as a sleeper this year” Hasselbeck. Remember, when Michael Jordan went to the Wizards? Albeit smaller scale, but just as big of a drop-off.
  5. The only way the Steelers don’t cover this number is if they come out flat. I don’t see that happening. Why? Well, while it might be might be thin, I checked out Roethlisberger’s biorhythm chart for 10/12/2012. Here it is:

The above shows Roethlisberger is ready to peak physically, which is good news. He is also very high emotionally, which will allow him to withstand the numerous “you’re a raper” taunts. Unfortunately, Big Ben’s intellect is so far down that if given the Wonderlich test before the game tonight, Vince Young might look like a genius. I have a solution for that – don’t let Ben call the plays or audible. Ben never calls the plays, so that part is a non factor. In terms of audibling, the Titans won’t present anything overly complicated nor present much resistance, therefore, even poor decisions by Big Ben likely won’t cost the Steelers.

Pick: Pittsburgh -6.0

Disclaimer: I use the LVH Lines from vegasinsider.com. The Super Contest lines are not live, but instead are set and held the entire week. In cases where I’ve made a contest pick, I will use that line, as opposed to the current line. Yeah, it’s a bit of a cheat and you wouldn’t be able to get that line once you’ve printed out my picks to head to the betting window but in the rare event that I win a contest bet but caught in the middle on a live play, rest assured I will adjust my record.

2011 NFL Week Seven Fantasy Football – Diamonds and Not So Rough

Now it’s time to move on to lucky Week 7 of the Diamonds and Not So Rough column. Once again I struggled with my Diamonds in Week 6 as only one of my
picks hit the 15 point mark, while once again all five of My Not So Rough players
scored under 20 points.

Week 5 Diamonds (20% wins):

  • James Jones had the TD catch I expected, but on his only catch of the game. He totaled just 10 points.
  • Greg Olsen five catches, 42 yards and a paltry 9.2 points.
  • Colt McCoy was my only hit at 22.20 and his stats were awfully close to what I predicted.
  • Michael Crabtree 9 catches for 77 yards and a TD away from making me a winner. 12.20 points was not quite enough.
  • Shonn Greene pitiful Monday night performance resulted in 7.95 points.

Week 5 Not So Rough (100% wins):

  • Brandon Marshall I said 5 for 60 and he wound up with 6 catches for 109 yards. Take out his fluke 46 yard catch and I’m pretty much right on the mark. Either way his 13.90 points made me a winner.
  • Reggie Wayne Predicted 5 for 75 and he was even worse and 5 for 58 for 8.30 points. An easy winner this week.
  • Maurice Jones-Drew I predicted 100 total yards and no TDs or 10 points. He checked in with 104 total yards and no TDs. Add in 2 catches and he had a pedestrian 10.90 points.
  • Arian Foster was even worse than I expected with 49 rushing yards and 52 receiving yards on 6 catches. No TDs led to a 11.60 week and a win for me.
  • DeSean Jackson 3 catches for 46 yards underwhelmed all of us as he was even under my lowly prediction of 4 catches for 80 yards and a TD.

As a reminder, the scoring system I will use to grade my performance is this:

  • All touchdowns 6 points
  • .04 point per yard passing
  • .1 per yard for rushing/receiving,
  • points per receptions > .25 RB/.50 WR/1.00 all others;
  • -1 per interception
  • -3 for interception return for TDs (also known as pick sixes).

Also to remind the readers for the Diamonds I’m looking for a 60% success ratio and I’m looking for the same 60% for the Not So Rough players. A Diamond must score at least 15 points in the scoring system listed above while a Not So Rough player must score under 20 to be considered a success.

Now it’s time to look at the Week 7 Diamonds:

Greg Little WR Cleveland – Breakout week coming against Seattle this week. Little had a good game against Oakland even with his stumbling out of bounds at the ½ inch line after making a wide open catch. No worries this week as he does scores a TD and adds 8 catches for 100 yards or 20 points.

Antonio Brown WR Pittsburgh – I know I’ve been touting this guy since last year, but you know what? He finally gets his dream matchup against the Arizona Cardinals secondary. He’ll have 2 long grabs with one going for a TD. 4 catches 130 yards and a score. 21 points is on the agenda for the week.

Curtis Painter QB Indianapolis – My reason for liking Painter this week is simple, I’m feeling a blowout in the Bayou and a lot of throws from Painter. 300 yards, 2 TDs and a couple of INTs are in store for Painter this week. 22 points from him and I’ll be a winner.

Brandon Marshall WR Miami – I’m flipping my perspective on Marshall this week for two reasons despite the fact that Matt Moore remains the QB. I know he’ll see a lot of Champ Bailey, but I still like the matchup and he’s playing against the team that traded him. Similar stat line to last week but add in a TD. 6 catches for 101 yards and a TD which is good enough for 19.1 points.

Kellen Winslow TE Tampa Bay – I’m looking for the silent Soldier to light up the Bears defense this week for 5 catches, 88 yards and 2 TDs. 25.8 points makes me a winner this week with Jr.

Now for the Not So Roughs:

Jason Witten TE Dallas – Usually I ignore points allowed by position stats but I watched the Rams totally shut down Finley of the Packers last week and the Ravens shut down Daniels of the Texans. So what you say? Well those two teams were 1 and 2 in points allowed to TEs. So this week I’ll buy into that theory and give Witten 4 catches for 60 yards and a TD. That 16 point performance makes me a winner.

Shonn Greene RB New York Jets – Another reversal on my part, this time to the underperforming side. The Chargers are good against the run and LT is lurking to beat up on his old team. Greene may smell paydirt, but even with a TD he will be lucky to break 15 points at best.

Matt Ryan QB Atlanta – The Falcons will take a lesson from the 49ers and realize the best way to beat the Lions is on the ground (see Frank Gore Week 6). They will also take a lesson from themselves and see they play better when the run first, pass second. Ryan will have his moments this week but it will add up to 250 yards, 2 TD and 3 INTs. That’s only 19 points in our scoring system.

Chris Johnson RB Tennessee – Many are expecting CJ2K to break out against the Texans defense, especially since he had the BYE week to get himself right. Not this week my faithful readers, as CJ2K becomes CJL (L being Roman for 50). 50 yards rushing, 50 yards receiving (including a long TD reception) bring CJ in 18 points (with his catches).

Vincent Jackson WR San Diego – Good Afternoon Vincent, welcome to the Tropical Island called Revis Island. Please enjoy your stay and your 3 catches for 60 yards and a TD. Those 13.5 points will be nice, but also low enough to make me a winner with you this week.