NFL 2012 Predictions – Week 07, “Your NFL team’s coach could be worse” edition

I was prepared to write a 1500 word column with the week seven picks integrated, but then I witnessed a Joe Bugel-esque coaching performance by my kid’s soccer coach. I have been stewing about it all day long and thus, I only have time to explain what happened.

So, here goes. First off, Joe Bugel was a hell of a nice guy, a real charming man that the players adored. As you can imagine he was a “player’s coach”, but not just that, he was more like a buddy to his players. There was no separation between coach and player, they were essentially drinking buddies. Now no one likes to lose friends and have people dislike them, especially coach Bugel, so he went to extremes to make sure everyone loved him.

I give the Bugel background for context, if I merely wanted to point out shitty coaches, I have a plethora of choices, from Romeo Crennel to Bo Pelini to Norv Turner to Jason Garrett to Andy Reid to Scott Linehan to Mike Martz to, well, you get the picture. Bugel is different than these coaches because he didn’t want to hurt anyones feelings, he wanted his players to like him and if they like him, he thought, then they would produce for him. Trouble with that is you don’t put players in a position to fail because you want them to like you.

For the benefit of the reader here is some context around the specific soccer team, this “alleged coach” coaches. First off, they’re one of the more talented teams in the state, possibly the most talented. The team’s has one extraordinary athlete, who is a top five player in the state and two other high-end players. The remaining eight players are more than adequate “role” players. So, it is a good team, but that has not translated into wins. In fact, “the coach” has seen merely a single win on the young season.

But the team has had success this year. They lost in the finals of a very tough tournament earlier in the year. Problem is they weren’t coached by “the coach” but rather a couple non-soccer pedigreed, yet soccer knowledgeable parents. . .

Yeah, you guessed it, one of them is me. And no I never played soccer which means that I cannot be part of this exclusive “soccer guy” club. Which infuriates me, because you can be a successful football coach without ever playing the game, but soccer, if you haven’t played its like, “Oh, my, you never played? Really? Wow! He can’t be in our queer club then.” First off, “soccer coach”, the game isn’t that complicated. I mean, “oooo, wow, soccer coach did you just tell your players to execute an over-lapping run. BRILLANT!” And secondly, in my book if you’re a Gen Xer and you actually played soccer beyond like pee-wee age, it was because either a. you were too big of a pussy to play football; b. you sucked at football and couldn’t make the team or c. both. So, I guess you can say “soccer guy” has been re-born with the onset of the sport’s popularity in this country and he is pulling a Ronald McDonald Miller “now I’m popular” scam. Not buying it!

. . .Anyway, so “the coach” resents the success the parent coaches had and refuses to ask them what went well. But with another tournament looming with similar teams, this gives “the coach” a chance to prove themselves.

 

This, finally, brings us to the point of this over-stated rant – the Joe Bugel move. After dropping the first game of the tournament to, oh by the way a team that we have beaten soundly three times in a row, “the coach” asks a parent, “why can’t we get a win?” Not sure the parent is qualified to answer the question because they never played a minute of soccer. But nonetheless the question is asked by “the coach.” Now wouldn’t you think that if “the coach” was given the chance to win a game that they would pull out all the stops? Yeah, me too!

Well, maybe not at the expense of a player being upset with her. Fast forward to today, with a spot in the finals depending on a 3-0 win (don’t ask, it’s a screwy points system that awards a point for seemingly every time you head a ball, have a corner, etc.), “the coach” performs well leading the team to a 2-0 halftime lead.

Now raise your hand if you think a 2-0 lead is insurmountable? Hmm, no hands. That is correct, in fact, a 2-0 lead in soccer at halftime is probably the football equivalent of 14-0. We just witnessed, less than a week ago, a team come back from 24-0 at halftime. So clearly a 2-0 lead at halftime of a soccer is not insurmountable!

But let’s say it was, the team still needed to win 3-0, therefore, they still needed to push for that third goal, while tighten down the defense to allow nothing.

Since this is technically a football column, I am going to describe what happened in football terms and I will use the 2012 St. Louis Rams as my example only if they were coached by Joe Bugel:

Kicker Greg Zuerlein: “Coach Bugel, remember when you said I could get some reps at quarterback in a game? Well, please, pretty please can I go in at quarterback to start the second half?”

Coach Bugel: “Sure Gregor, not a problem!”

Missouri Running Back Marcus Murphy (requested to come up by Bugel for depth): “Coach, I haven’t played in this game yet. I am seriously considering not coming out with you for beers after this game.”

Coach Bugel: “Marcus, come on, you’re simply not ready for this level. But if it means your friendship, you start at running back in the second half.”

Coach Bugel: “OK, guys let’s keep up the good work. Here are a couple more changes – (OT) Wayne Hunter, I’ve seen you tackle on Bradford’s interception, very impressive, now let’s see if you can cover, you go to cornerback. (WR) Brandon Gibson, you go to linebacker, remember, plug the middle and make all the calls. (WR) Chris Givens, head to nose tackle, stay low, man, stay low, you’ll be fine. Sam Bradford, Steven Jackson and Chris Long, to the bench. Let’s go get’em guys!”

Yep, that’s effectively what “the coach” did today – put the three best players on the bench, started two players at forward that couldn’t score a goal if the net was empty and placed two players back on defense that had never played the position before. When I saw the lineup, I pissed myself, but before I finished the score was already tied 2-2. Then, and only then, did “the coach” decide to put the best player back in the game at their normal position (Center Mid) but no other subs.

I am sure you can guess what happened next, the best player has a run towards the potential tie-breaking goal, but one of the out of position players gets in the way, actually stealing the ball from the player and then weakly kicking it to nowheresville, which leads directly to a goal for the opposition. 3-2, bye-bye finals! Only now is everyone is back in their normal positions.

The final? 3-3, the best player, only the normal starters on the field, broke through and scored a goal to tie, but such little time remained, that is how it ended in a tie, which essentially ended all hopes of a championship this weekend!

In a life full of bad beats related to sports, I have never been more pissed off than I was today. And that my friends is the reason why you didn’t 1500 words of “why we should put David Wilson in the Hall of Fame right now.”

Note: I use the LVH Lines from vegasinsider.com. The Super Contest lines are not live, but instead are set and held the entire week.

The “SuperContest” picks:

Dallas (-2.5) over Carolina – There aren’t many times when you can actually get value on “America’s Team”, this is one of those times.

Minnesota (-6.5) over Arizona – On Thursday, I dubbed this weekend, “Favorite’s Revenge”, though I might be tempted to change that to “Shitty Soccer Coaches Revenge.” I cannot call this Arizona team correct, but for some reason this feels like a terrible match-up for the Cards.

Cincinnati (+2.5) over Pittsburgh – I cannot pick the Bengals correctly, either, so it makes sense to make them one of my top five picks this week, right? Look, next time you go 10-4 in a week you can question my methods!

St. Louis (+5.5) over Green Bay – This is based solely on the idea that Greg Zuerlein take exactly zero snaps at quarterback.

Tampa Bay (+2.0) over New Orleans – Please, why are the Saints favored? Because they beat a team that just blew a 24 point halftime lead? Plus, they won’t have Jimmy Graham to trot out as a decoy this week because of a badly sprained vagina, ankle.

 The “Rest of the Winners” picks:

Tennessee (+3.5) over Buffalo – Two bad teams, give me the points.

Indianapolis (-2.5) over Cleveland – Yeah, Cleveland is better than Indianapolis. And that second lineup “the coach” put out there today gave us the best chance to win.

NY Giants (-5.5) over Washington – If I didn’t already “survive” with the 49ers this week, this would be my survivor pick. There is way, way too much being made of the Skins owning the Giants last season.

Baltimore(+7.0) over Houston – Unless Ray Lewis’ pre-game cheer is worth four points, I don’t see how the Ravens are getting seven here. Bottom line is most defensive players are Plug and Play ready.

New England (-10.5) over NY Jets – It’s either a Jets out-right win or a Patriots swift ass-kicking. I will go with the latter.

Oakland (-6) over Jacksonville – Dumbest line of the week, but since I know “Sharps” move the line and this line moved, I am left no choice but to jump of the bandwagon.

Chicago (-6.5) over Detroit – “Favorite’s Revenge” finishes the week with a win and manages to clear .500 for the first time this year.

Colin Wynner does, in fact, call winners!

2012 NFL Predictions – Week 06, “Mendoza Line” Edition

4-10? How does a great handicapper like Colin Wynner manage to go 4-10? Well, by catching a lucky Willis McGahee fumble as the Broncos were about to close to within three points of the Patriots last week, that’s how!
It was a bad, bad week. It has left me well below the Mendoza line overall, I dropped 150 places in the SuperContest and my confidence has taken a beating. That’s right my confidence is not busting out of my head with a harmonica, it’s sheepishly peering out to see if the “bad man” is still around.
And I started out this week 0-1, because I let myself get talked out of the Titans Thursday. When it is going bad, it is going bad. But just as easily I can be back over the Mendoza line with an eye on the penthouse suite at the Bellagio by the end of this week.

Note: I use the LVH Lines from vegasinsider.com. The Super Contest lines are not live, but instead are set and held the entire week.

The “SuperContest” picks:

Indianapolis @ NY Jets (-3.0) – The hype on the Colts is a little much. So what, they rallied to beat the Packers, who are much more like the 2009 Packers than the 2011 Packers. They’ve also beaten the Vikings at home. But this is a road game after an emotional comeback win. Call it the “come out flat after you leave everything on the field for your coach, who was just diagnosed with Leukemia” angle. Pick: NY Jets -3.0

Oakland @ Atlanta (-9.0) – Three straight weeks the Falcons have flirted with a loss. As my wife tells me, there is no such thing as innocent flirtation. This might be the week the Falcons give into the temptation and just lose. Plus, that will take down roughly 80% of the remaining entries in Survivor pools, good times, this NFL is. Pick: Oakland +9.0

Green Bay @ Houston (-3.5) – The 2012 Packers might be closer to the 2009 version than the 2011 version but I like them getting points in any situation. Do you realize the Packers haven’t lost a game as an underdog since December 12th, 2010? Pick: Green Bay +3.5

Minnesota (-2.5) @ Washington (-1.5) – Yeah, the contest line is Washington +2.5, while the actual betting line is Washington -1.5. I am predicting a Washington one point victory! Not really, it the Vikings time, come on this team is not going to be 5-1. Pick: Washington +2.5


Dallas @ Baltimore (-3.5) – Love the Cowboys in this spot because the Ravens seem to be so concerned with making sure the world knows that Joe Flacco is an elite quarterback that they have gotten away from what they do best – run the ball to setup the pass. Well, the Cowboys strength on defense happens to be the secondary, therefore, when those stubborn Ravens have Flacco throwing all over the place like they’re coached by Mike Martz, they probably will struggle to win. Pick: Dallas +3.5

The “Free Money” pick:

Cincinnati (-2.5) @ Cleveland – Sucker bet, I know, but you know what suckers win sometimes. Pick: Cincinnati -2.5

The “Movable Object vs. Resistible Force” pick:

St. Louis @ Miami (-4.5) – I cannot see this Rams team moving to 4-2, but I cannot see the Dolphins winning two in a row, especially when one of those games is at home. Uh, uh, give me the points. . . Pick: St. Louis +4.5

The “Suicide Watch” pick:

Detroit @ Philadelphia (-3.5) – One of my buddies is a diehard Eagles fan, who when I saw him after loss to the Steelers, I asked him what he thought. His reply, “I won’t watch another Eagles game until Michael Vick is no longer the quarterback and Andy Reid is no longer the coach.” Wow, that’s harsh, even for the most pessimistic Philly fan, goodness this team is 3-2 after all. But what he knows, and what all Eagles fans know, is that the Eagles are three plays away from being 0-5. And that the Eagles simply aren’t very good. But the football gods need to have some mercy on these Philly fans, I am not saying Super Bowl necessarily, but give them a week reprieve, allow Vick to play well and the Iggles to win big. Done and done! Pick: Philadelphia -3.5

The “In Over their Head” pick:

New England (-3.5) @ Seattle – The Seahawks have a legit defense, great special teams, but their rookie quarterback is limiting what they can do, and thus truncating how far they can go this season. In other words, he is killing them! I get it, Petey, you effed up by naming Wilson the starter in the first place. And now you’re screwed, if you go to Flynn, Wilson’s confidence will be a little like mine right now, constantly looking over his shoulder and afraid to bend over. Then if Flynn sucks, you are trapped, you’ve got no options! Dammit, why, oh why, did the Seahawks trade Tavaris Jackson! That aside the Seabags need to figure out a way to win at least one of their next three games: Pats, @49ers and @Lions. No way, Russell Wilson wins in SF and Detroit may have things figured out by then. Therefore, this is the game. Look for craziness to ensue, maybe along the lines of an onside kick to open the game, a couple extra long field goals, a return TD and an amazing goal line stand to end the game. Pick: Seattle +3.5

The “Sunday Night Hangover” pick:

Denver @ San Diego (-1.5) – I am sure it sucks to lose any time in the NFL, but to have the game literally stolen away because of Goodell’s hidden agenda, must really, really suck. It is obvious that Goodell wanted to soften the blow of the bounty suspensions by giving the Saints a win last week. It was painfully obvious to some of us. Now the question is – will he repay the Chargers this week or sometime later in the season? It would be far too obvious if were to happen this week. Pick: Denver +1.5

The “Ass Kickin” pick:

Buffalo @ Arizona (-4.5) – Since 1989 three teams have given up more than 96 points in consecutive weeks. Last week the 2012 Bills joined the 1989 Bucs, 2004 Browns and 2004 Titans in that illustrious group. The combined ATS record of those teams the following week is 0-3. Uh, make that 0-4 after this week. Oh, if the Cardinals lay 44 points on the Bills, the Bills will have the record for most points given up in a three game stretch. Imagine, if they didn’t throw all that money Mario Williams way. Pick: Arizona -4.5

The “Brady Quinn Era Begins” pick:

Kansas City @ Tampa Bay (-4.0) – Here is something incredibly bizarre about the psychology of point spreads – if this line is 3.5, I love the Chiefs, but at 4.0 I will take the Bucs. I know it’s nuts, but the best I can explain it is like this, at 3.5, I feel like the teams are equal but I get the gift hook; at 4.0 I feel like the favored team is superior, therefore, give me the better team. Oh, that AND BRADY EFFING QUINN is starting on the road in a hostile environment. Pick: Tampa Bay -4.0

The “Sure, I will cheer for the house” pick:

NY Giants @ San Francisco (-6.5) – The road warriors are getting 6.5 points? Ok, here is the deal, if this was the posted number, I take the 49ers because that would be out of line by the odds-makers therefore, I would assume they know something and have posted a number to attract as much Giants action as possible. But this game was bet up to 6.5 by the public. And spare me the line about, “Only Sharp money moves lines.” You’re right unless everyone from San Francisco to Manhattan is playing the 49ers. That’s the case here, as the books are heavily exposed on the 49ers. And guess what it’s never a bad idea to jump in bed with the house. Well, unless the house has syphilis of course. Pick: NY Giants +6.5

Colin Wynner makes prank calls!

2012 NFL Predictions – Week 6, “Thursday” Edition

Most years about this time, I start to whisper, “Wow, it’s already week six, this year is going by too fast!” This year, however, it’s more like, “Is it over yet?” Translation – it is getting tougher with each passing year to enjoy the NFL. The several reasons for this, but at the forefront is the reality that the league is watered down with essentially random results week in and week out. That makes it tough to be successful handicapper, fantasy player or pool participant.

Sunday afternoon I texted a buddy this message, “If I go 0-5 this week, I think I’m be done with football.” Turns out, I went 1-4, but the fact remains, I almost called it a career before finding some fire to help me move forward this week. Still, I was close. Someday, I envision myself running a rehab center for addicted fans of football – the name of the center “One Game At A Time.”

And by “calling it a career”, I mean freaking going “cold turkey” without any peripheral football – no Sunday Ticket, no NFL rewind, no football related subscriptions, no picks columns, no picks, no bets, no pools and no fantasy. Well to be honest I have about 278 reasons why fantasy football is gone after this year regardless of whether I retire or not, but you get the idea, I would watch occasionally, but watch for the purity of the game, which would put all the power back in my hands.

I no longer sit through a crappy performance by my team just because they are the final play on a three team teaser. It wouldn’t take me nince hours to vacuum a house that normally takes 1.5 hours (humble brag, right! Yeah, I live in a mansion that normally takes 90 minutes to vacuum), I wouldn’t have to watch an otherwise unwatchable Monday night game because I have fantasy player X going against fantasy player Y. And I wouldn’t have to spend the time I spend on this freaking sport!

Some day very soon, you might show up on this site to see what teams you want to fade for the week and see the following:

I’M OUT THIS BITCH!

OK, enough about me, on to the game:

Pittsburgh (-6.0) @ Tennessee – The NFL changed the Rashard Mendenhall rushing touchdown to a receiving touchdown this week. Real nice, thanks, NFL. The effects of this monumental change will be felt for years to come as all fantasy league commissioners scurry to update the week 5 stat changes. In one of my leagues a two games will be affected where both winning teams will see a win snatched from their helpless hands. Great, I already had to sweat the Sunday and Monday night games, now I have to wait out the NFL until Thursday to make sure I get the win.

The ridiculous part of this change is that it was obvious that it was a touchdown pass in live action and even more apparent on the replay, how did it get by the officials? I thought the “real” refs were back. Honestly, the real ref vs. scab ref is a little like trying to tell the difference between New Coke and Classic Coke. If I am a ardent Classic Coke drinker and you put a can of New Coke in front of me, I would rather go thirsty than drink that crap. But if you blindfold me and give it to me, I couldn’t tell the difference. That’s pretty much how I feel about the scabs and the regular refs, don’t tell me and, for goodness sake, don’t let them speak and I probably couldn’t tell the difference.

  1. Rashard Mendenhall looked fantastic last weekend, so much that I actually might recommend suffering a torn ACL in week 16 of the previous season. Kidding, kidding, but he looks faster and shifter than ever. Of course, that might be the Jonathon Dwyer and Isaac Redman effect as well.
  2. We know the weapons the Steelers have on the outside, but don’t forget about Heath Miller tonight. In fact if you have a chance to play a few props, I would strongly recommend Miller for 1st touchdown, over 45 yards and “Yes” he will score a touchdown. The Titans can’t cover anyone, but they are atrocious against the tight end.

  3. The Titans might be the worst team in the NFL, but their emotionally leader, Chris Johnson, commented this week:

    “We need somebody in this locker room to make plays and give us a spark.”

    Uh, you mean somebody like you? I mean CJ_K the Titans have all that money tied up in you, I think they expect you to make plays and give them a spark. Wow, totally clueless. If I am Titans ownership, I would be willing to give Titans coach Mike Munchak another year sans CJ_K. I have to believe CJ_K is impacting the morale and chemistry of a very young team. In fact, the Titans would be better off just cutting his lousy ass right now.

  4. Matt Hasselbeck has been a solid quarterback to back as the starter for a home team underdog over his career, but this is not the Seattle Hasselbeck, this is the “I am hanging on for a paycheck while trying to mentor a young guy into a great quarterback, so I can someday land a head coaching job and continue to be the favorite son over my d-bag brother who is a self proclaimed fantasy football expert, yet somehow pops is favoring him because he gave him Alfred Morris as a sleeper this year” Hasselbeck. Remember, when Michael Jordan went to the Wizards? Albeit smaller scale, but just as big of a drop-off.
  5. The only way the Steelers don’t cover this number is if they come out flat. I don’t see that happening. Why? Well, while it might be might be thin, I checked out Roethlisberger’s biorhythm chart for 10/12/2012. Here it is:

The above shows Roethlisberger is ready to peak physically, which is good news. He is also very high emotionally, which will allow him to withstand the numerous “you’re a raper” taunts. Unfortunately, Big Ben’s intellect is so far down that if given the Wonderlich test before the game tonight, Vince Young might look like a genius. I have a solution for that – don’t let Ben call the plays or audible. Ben never calls the plays, so that part is a non factor. In terms of audibling, the Titans won’t present anything overly complicated nor present much resistance, therefore, even poor decisions by Big Ben likely won’t cost the Steelers.

Pick: Pittsburgh -6.0

Disclaimer: I use the LVH Lines from vegasinsider.com. The Super Contest lines are not live, but instead are set and held the entire week. In cases where I’ve made a contest pick, I will use that line, as opposed to the current line. Yeah, it’s a bit of a cheat and you wouldn’t be able to get that line once you’ve printed out my picks to head to the betting window but in the rare event that I win a contest bet but caught in the middle on a live play, rest assured I will adjust my record.

2012 NFL Predictions – Week 05 Picks, “Soccer Induced Quick Picks” Edition

I have spent the last two days at the soccer fields, so you get quick picks for NFL week #5. Mind you though, I put the same effort into each and every pick. But I must inform you that I feel this is the week where the odds-makers have caught on – very, very tough! Upon making my picks, I just about pulled out the UNO
Reverse card and reversed every one of them.

Note: I use the LVH Lines from vegasinsider.com. The Super Contest lines are not live, but instead are set and held the entire week.

The “SuperContest” picks:

Arizona (-1.0) @ St. Louis – I feel like the Cardinals are who I thought they were. Shame me for thinking otherwise and making them a top 5 play this week. Pick: Arizona -1.0

San Diego @ New Orleans (-3.5) – Why are the Saints favored in this game? And by 3.5, no less, wow!! – “Free Money”. Pick: San Diego +3.5

Tennessee @ Minnesota (-5.5) – Game was a pick’em in the pre-season, now it’s 5.5. So this Vikings team is good because they’ve beaten the Jags, a sleep-walking 49ers team and the Lions? Uh, ok. They might win but the line of 5.5 is way, way too many points. Pick: Minnesota -5.5

Seattle @ Carolina (-3.0) – I don’t completely trust Panthers safety Haruki Nakamura and his band of incompetent brothers roaming the defensive backfield, but I trust Russell Wilson on the road less. In fact, Russell might be the only quarterback capable of making Haruki look like a competent NFL safety. The Hawks really, really need to go to Matt Flynn, Wilson will be the guy long term but he is killing an otherwise very good team. Pick: Carolina -3.0

Baltimore (-5.5) @ Kansas City – How is this not a repeat of the 2010 playoff game between these teams? Oh and the Ravens just had their early season “mail it in” game against the Browns last week. It’s going to be a long day for the Chiefs. Pick: Baltimore -5.5

The “Good Bad Team” pick:

Miami @ Cincinnati (-3.0) – The Bengals beat bad teams badly, though Miami is pesky, I wouldn’t consider them good. Pick: Cincinnati -3.0

The “Final Destination” pick:

Atlanta (-3.0) @ Washington – The Falcons should have lost last week. You can only cheat death so long. . . Pick: Washington +3.0


The “Look Ahead” picks:

Green Bay (-6.5) @ Indianapolis – With a showdown against the Texans on deck, look for the Packers to get caught sleeping against the Colts. Pick: Indianapolis +6.5

Cleveland @ NY Giants (-8.5) – Come on, it’s the Giants, they’re giving more than a touchdown at home. I think we’ve seen how this ends multiple times over the last five seasons? And the G-Men have the 49ers on deck. Pick: Cleveland +8.5

The “Livin a lie” pick:

Philadelphia @ Pittsburgh (-3.5) – The Eagles are 3-1, yet have been out-scored by 17 points. Look for the “regression” to begin this week. Also, Steelers coach Mike Tomlin doesn’t lose back-to-back games. Pick: Pittsburgh -3.5

The “Monday Night Hangover” pick:

Chicago (-5.5) @ Jacksonville – This feels way too easy. And I’ve already taken advantage of the “Free Money” offer from the books with the Chargers. This feels like a late Bears rally to win by a field goal. Pick: Jacksonville +5.5

The “Ass Kickin” picks:

Denver @ New England (-6.5) – Sorry, Peyton, still not buying. . . Pick: New England -6.5

Buffalo @ San Francisco (-9.5) – The 49ers are back home, re-focused and ready to take control of the NFC West. How do the Bills cover this game if the 49ers go up 17-0? Answer: they don’t! Pick: San Francisco -9.5

Houston (-8.0) @ NY Jets – How do the Jets cover this game if the Texans go up 17-0? Same answer from above. Pick: Houston -8.0

Colin Wynner calls the winners. “Rever. . .Revers. . .!”


 

2012 NFL Predictions – Week 05, “Thursday” Edition

Week 05 NFL Thursday Night Football pick from the world renowned handicapper, Colin Wynner.

Arizona (-1.0) @ St. Louis – The odds-makers still aren’t buying the Cardinals. It’s as if they don’t think the Cardinals can continue the 15 consecutive fumble recovery streak. Still, just a single point? (Grown to 2.5 since Wednesday [insert your personal favorite lewd joke here]) One lousy point for a 4-0 team that has beaten the best team in the AFC (Patriots) and the current leader of the toughest division, allegedly, in the NFL (NFC East). As Cris Carter would say, “Come on, Man! You gotta give this Cardinals team some love.”

If you’re looking for further confirmation that the odds-makers believe that this Cardinals team is a desert mirage, look no further than the Super Bowl odds – still +2200. Anyone who follows futures knows that the days of being to hammer out a bet with reasonably high odds on a fringe, under the radar team are long gone. In fact, the bookies are more skittish about the futures than Jesse Pinkman on the day long “buried cash digging” adventure with Mike, the one where he had to stay clean for an entire day. A mere sign of life from a team will cause an immediate unprovoked reaction to drop the odds like Lindsay Lohan at the end of a Hollywood party.

But what doesn’t make sense here is that at the highest, odds for playoff teams would be around 15-1, but more like 8-1. And take a look at what these criminals do to the NFL division odds where there are 4 teams, and the worst of the worst, the no shot in hell teams are roughly 18-1 at the beginning of the season. In the interest of a fair comparison, let’s say the Browns were 22-1 to the AFC North prior to the year. For the same price, would you want the Browns in AFC North prior to the season or the Cardinals now at 4-0?

The point here is that in the futures world bookies don’t have to be accountable. They can make every team 2-1 and call it a day. Of course, the counter to that is “well, if every team was 2-1, their handle would go way down.” Puh-lease! Most gamblers are going to gamble regardless of how high the odds are stacked against them. Don’t believe me! Remember when Indian Casinos only offered Blackjack Machines? There were packed even though they only paid out at 97%. Wait, those machines are paying out 97%, wow that means I will only lose 3% of the time. I need to get over there. See what I mean.

How ridiculous is the normal protocol for lowering odds? Well, for example, the “American League Wild Card Play-In Game” participants (Can we get some shirts made up for this major accomplishment?), the Orioles were 150-1 to win the World Series prior to the season. After starting out a very mediocre 9-7, the Orioles dropped to 100-1, like, oh shit this team actually team has a pulse and the corresponding immediate drop.

With roughly a third of the season in the books, the O’s that sat atop the AL East with a 29-20 record. Every team in the division was within 4.5 games of first place. Now mind you, this isn’t the AL Central, it’s the AL East, where you have, with special thanks to Super Punch Out, King Hippo or the Toronto Blue Jays, Bald Bull, better known as the Tampa Bay Rays, what we thought was going to be Mr. Sandman in the Boston Red Sox, of course they turned out to be Glass Joe and Mike Tyson, pre-Miss America rape, jail sentence, losing contract with Nintendo. Translation, no one was scared of the Orioles, well nobody was scared of the O’s except for the books who over-reacted by lowering them to 30-1.

The interesting thing is one would think that if the Orioles odds dropped, another team, specifically one within the division would rise. Not the case. As when the O’s were 150-1, the Yanks were 13-2, Sox 10-1, Rays 18-1 and Jays 40-1. The drop to 100-1, saw the Yanks at 7-1 (slight increase), Red Sox 18-1 (on the heels of another wretched start), Rays at 18-1 and the Jays at 22-1. When the O’s went to 30-1, the rest of the division look like this: Yanks 9-1, Sox 20-1, Rays 9-1 and Jays 20-1. The ultimate squeeze!

Colin’s 2012 NFL Season Stats

Last Week

8-7-0

2012 Season Record

31-31-1

2012 SuperContest Record

11-8-1 (Tied for 147th place)

Now if the books had to offer the opposite side of every future bet, that would make a big difference. For example, I might have no problem laughing my ass off at the books while betting the Red Sox not to win the WS at, let’s say -3000. You see once they started getting pounded in the ass like the future lifer, Jerry Sandusky, they might consider setting a more reasonable line or give up a major pay day to all those “nots”. Of course, they also have your money for 4 months of interest earning and the heavy juice between the “yea” and “nay” bets. But there is a reason they don’t offer that, its value for bettor!

Now consider that over-reaction to the O’s, doesn’t it make sense that the books should be reacting to the Cardinals the same way? There are even similarities between the O’s and the Cardinals, (a). Both teams have a dominate team in the division that one would likely see as very difficult to over-come; and (b). Both teams have been, at least according to basic stats, lucky to be where they are. The O’s were almost out-scored by their opponents on the year, despite posting 93 wins. The Cardinals are literally three plays away from being a very Cardinal-esque 1-3. Yet, the odds-makers completely over-reacted to the O’s and not so much the Cards.

So, why the long odds? Very simply it appears that the odds-makers aren’t worried about this team winning the Super Bowl or even coming close for that matter. Fair enough, but if the Cardinals take care of business in the next three games, all games they figure to be favored in, they will be 7-0 and heading to the playoffs even if they experience a 2011 Buffalo Bill collapse. Hmm, the time might be right to throw down some “future” coin on this team. Just saying, you heard it here first!

As for tonight’s game, the Rams have been extremely fortunate to win their two home games. Therefore, I believe they have created a false illusion that they are a good home team, one that is capable of continuing to beat better teams at home, despite not being favored to do so. The biggest question I have for this game is what happens when “luck” meets “luck”? Well, then you have to go to talent. The Cardinals have a big advantage in overall talent.

My guess is not all that close, something like Arizona 31 St. Louis 13. I am making it a Contest pick.

Pick: Arizona -1.0 (-2.5)

Note: I use the LVH Lines from vegasinsider.com. The Super Contest lines are not live, but instead are set and held the entire week. In cases where I’ve made a contest pick, I will use that line, as opposed to the current line. Yeah, it’s a bit of a cheat and you wouldn’t be able to get that line once you’ve printed out my picks to head to the betting window but in the rare event that I win a contest bet but caught in the middle on a live play, rest assured I will adjust my record.

 

2012 NFL Predictions – Week 04, “Slow and Steady” edition

“Slow and steady wins the race” – A 9-7 week three gives me a second consecutive winning week and pushes my overall record one game below the Mendoza line.

Note: I use the LVH Lines from vegasinsider.com. The Super Contest lines are not live, but instead are set and held the entire week.

The “SuperContest” picks:

San Francisco (-4.0) @ NY Jets – Nothing screams “Five wide” more than hearing Joe McKnight will begin take snaps at corner back. It would be like hitting the lottery for one lucky 49er receiver.

Yeah, this is a sucker bet of the week, but come on the 49ers aren’t going to lose back-to-back games to mediocre teams. . . Cue the “win but fail to cover” game. . .

Pick: San Francisco -4.0

Seattle (-2.5) @ St. Louis – The big question is will the real refs restore justice to the NFL by erasing that gift victory the Seahawks received last week. Because that is entirely possible, and the Seahawks are on a short travel week, give those pesky Rams.

Pick: St. Louis +2.5

New England (-4.0) @ Buffalo – So far in 2012 home team underdogs have been crazy good, like 13-6 ATS crazy good. We most likely owe that to the replacement refs, who clearly favored the home teams. We should start to see a regression to the normal home team dog ATS record now that the real refs are back. There are four home dogs this week I cannot see more than two of them covering. And New England can’t possible lose three in a row, can they?

Pick: New England -4.0

Tennessee @ Houston (-12.0) – The Titans are 4-1 ATS when they’re double digit dog the week after being an underdog of any amount. Prior to this season the Texans had been double digit favorites just five times. Five times in the franchise history! This will be close game that will cause a sweat for anyone still alive in a survivor pool.

Pick: Tennessee +12.0

Miami @ Arizona (-6.5) – Wow, I could only get 6.5 points on my “once and for all retirement score” bet. I guess the Vegas odds-makers aren’t buying into the Cardinals just yet. And as of press time this number was falling faster than Mitt Romney presidential chances – down to 4.5 in a few places.

Pick: Miami +6.5

The “Home Team Dogs” picks:

San Diego (-1.5) @ Kansas City – I get it now, the Chiefs don’t start playing until week three, it must be for religious reasons. Norv Turner wouldn’t be Norv Turner if he won games like this.

Pick: Kansas City +1.5

The “I didn’t check the parachute before jumping” pick:

New Orleans @ Green Bay (-7.5) – I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if the Saints came away from Green Bay with a win. Despite the impressive performance by the Packers defense over the last couple of weeks, I am not a believer. After all it was Jay Cutler and Russell Wilson. Points a plenty in this game, therefore give me the touchdown with a hook.

Pick: New Orleans +7.5

The “Fool me once, your bad, fool twice, my bad, fool me numerous times, me retarded” pick:

Chicago @ Dallas (-3.5) – I cannot believe I am going to do this, but yes I am going to back Jay Cutler on the road again. In related news, I just stuck a fork in an electrical outlet for the fourth time in my life.

At the end of the day, I don’t trust either team offensively; the defenses should dominate in a low scoring tight battle, give me the hook in that case every day and twice on Monday night.

Colin’s 2012 NFL Season Stats

Last Week:

9-7

This Week:

1-0-0

2012 Season Record:

24-24-1

2012 SuperContest Record

7-7-1 (Tied for 209th place)

Pick: Chicago +3.5

The “Trending” pick:

NY Giants @ Philadelphia (-2.5) – The Giants are 12-2 ATS in the last 14 games when playing the second of back-to-back road games.

The Eagles will fall to 0-4 after this game, is it finally time to admit that the Eagles are garbage. This chant will begin around “the Linc” with two minutes left in the third quarter Sunday night, “NICK FOR VICK, NICK FOR VICK”

Pick: NY Giants +2.5

The “She’s really hot, no really, she’s hot” pick:

Washington @ Tampa Bay (-2.5) – Follow me here – let’s go back to high school and let’s say that at a random party you meet a girl from another school and she looks great. And by great, I mean like super duper hot. Now the next few times you see her she doesn’t look anywhere near as hot. But you cannot get that original image out of your head. That’s the Skins. That opening weekend performance had us all believing the Redskins were legit, when they really aren’t.

Pick: Tampa Bay -2.5

Cincinnati @ Jacksonville (-1.0) – Wow surprisingly the Jaguars are favored in this game. That Cincinnati defense is going to ruin this team.

Pick: Jacksonville -1.0

The “Did you know” pick:

Minnesota @ Detroit (-4.0) – Did you know the Lions are 0-3 ATS this season? And the Lions are really in a must-win situation today, as they are treading water at 1-2 and have four of their next five on the road. OK, I will take a desperate team over one that is feeling pretty good about their situation.

Pick: Detroit -4.0

The “I didn’t save and Microsoft Word EFF’d me” picks:

Oakland @ Denver (-7.0) – To me this game is a toss-up, but I will slightly lean against “noodle arm” Manning and take the touchdown.

Pick: Oakland +7.0

Carolina @ Atlanta (-7.0) – Another coin flip game. This game could be part of the “No really, she’s hot” section due to the Panthers looking like garbage so far this season after they had us enamored with their beauty coming into the season. I still don’t completely trust the Falcons when laying a big number like this, but what the heck, the flip cam up heads – home team.

Pick: Atlanta -7.0

Colin Wynner calls the winners. Good Luck to all, but mostly to me!


A Fantasy Football Draft Day Running Log – Part II “Sizzling” Edition

OK, it’s on to PART II, trust me here the sequel is much better than the original, of the marathon 2-day running log capturing the excitement and pageantry of two live fantasy football drafts. This year features the 20 year anniversary of one of leagues with draft held in the fabulous outer layer of hell, Las Vegas. And as always Colin’s here to detail the events, while providing his expert opinion in calling the fantasy winners and losers.

With the first, painful leg of the journey finally over, we are on to the second portion including the details of the travel and the lead up to the draft.

12:05 PM – Home, packed and ready for an early morning flight to Vegas. I am re-watching the Seahawks battering of the Chiefs. Maybe I should re-think the Chiefs as my surprise winner of the AFC West or maybe the Seahawks are simply that good. I think the latter.

5:00 AM – I am running on adrenaline with a mere five hours of sleep. Shower, protein shake, grab my gear and I am off. My ride has graciously brought me an 800 calorie breakfast burrito. Good move by him, sometimes you can forget to eat in Vegas which generally means trouble.

8:15 AM – Flights on time, so far everything working like clockwork, good sign for bringing down a few blackjack tables prior to showing up for the draft. Hell, there might be enough time to do enough damage to get something comp’d prior to the draft.

8:30 AM – You know what pisses me off? The fact that I have to turn off my phone prior to takeoff, but I can use the $800/minute phone they provide to us. Goodness, if my device can interfere with the plane’s ability to take off, maybe we shouldn’t be flying, right? And if it screws up the flight plan and we end up in Billings, Montana, well then, I guess this draft just wasn’t meant to be.

10:30 AM – Bags checked at the hotel, on our way to the LVH to get down on some football futures and maybe enter the LVH SuperContest. LVH used to be known as the Las Vegas Hilton, but I guess the self righteous pricks running the Hilton decided they no longer wanted their name associated with gambling and pulled out (which makes me think of Terrell Owens and his ten kids. Bro, if you just pulled out half the time, think of how much of that coin you would have left!). To which the owners decided to stick it to the Hilton by renaming the hotel to LVH, essentially the same thing, only now it’s the Las Vegas Hotel. Well played, LVH, well played!

11:15 AM – I used to believe only degenerates bet on pre-season football, now I realize that the sports market is about value and it doesn’t matter whether it’s pre-season. By the way, I just laid $100 down on the WNBA Sun/Mercury under!

11:45 AM – Going for an entry in the SuperContest with a five team two way round robin and two first half NFL bets, which of course they won’t let you parlay. The first halves – Wash -3 over Indy (RG III v. Luck, in what I call the “Mine’s bigger than yours” bowl) and Dallas -3 over St. Louis (in what I like to call the “Free Money” bowl, because you know books love to give money away). The five teams on the round robin – Wash -3, Wash/Ind over 41, Dal -5.5, Dal/St. Louis Under 39 and Detroit -2.5 over Oakland. I don’t like the Lions, because I generally feel like home teams in week three play to win, but let’s go with it.

1:00PM – Oh the irony, I ran into a guy from Colorado, who is in town for a fantasy draft. Hmmm, interesting! After he told me how much his draft sucks, too time consuming, tired of traveling, hates Vegas,etc, he went into the story of how they decided to do the 25th in Vegas about five years ago. I thought, wow, after I did a simple calculation in my head, this must be the 30th then. I asked him, “What year is this, then?” He tells me it’s the 26th! Huh? I give him a confused look, to which he tells me, “no we came up for our 20th, now it’s a ritual.” Then I asked him why the draft sucks, he tells me, “Well, it blows traveling for a draft. And we basically just get a room, an over-priced room and that’s it. We could do that in Denver.” Ahh, I get it and I agree, right? If you go to Vegas for a draft it has to be memorable. All this happened during a piss break.

1:15 PM – This is a whirlwind trip to begin with, now we are casino hopping trying find a place to hammer out a few hundred prior to meeting at the draft. A couple things don on me as we are walking down the Strip – 1. This place is quite tame during the day, almost like a real city that you could actually enjoy. You never know at night it turns into a living hell!; and 2. It’s hot, like crazy hot. I thought how the hell do people go out in this heat walk from casino to casino, then sit down at a table to gamble without smelling like the unmapped floor of a peepshow? Actually, I am wondering if maybe that could be a strategy I should employ, like maybe I could throw the dealer off their game if I reek of BO, at the worst I would certainly get rid of the piss poor players. Maybe we should do a few 40 yard sprints prior to heading into the casino, then while still profusely sweating drain a polish dog with extra onions. Why wouldn’t that work? In the opposite case, if I am winning the pit bosses pull out any and all tricks possible to get me off my game, why can’t I turn the tables on those jags?

130PM – We decide against the sprints and head to The Paris to hammer out a few hundred in the last hour before meeting at the draft. I wander around the tables looking for my mark, but the tables are full of “groups” of friends and I don’t want to bust into a group that has been winning and have them start losing. So I wander and wander and throw away $60 on video poker and wander. Finally, we grab a couple seats at a $15 table with a 6-deck shoe. Twenty minutes later, I tell my buddy, “I love those $100 bottles of water”. I can’t escape fast enough, I feel I like I just spent the night in a French jail with two ex-cons who were captured after a failed escape attempt, For the record, I was the girl! Fortunately for us a successfully day of football investing will give us our needed stake for the SuperContest, so the table gambling is a mere luxurious sideshow. Time to head back to the hotel to check-in and relax while watching the Skins man-handle the Colts.

2:15 PM – The Skins and Colts are tied with 2 minutes remaining in the half, but the Skins have the ball at the Colts 30. I allow myself the luxury of uttering the words, “Worst case scenario, we got a push!” Are you kidding me, Colin? It’s like I got to Vegas and lost sight of sports investing rules, like rule #1 “never, ever say worst case scenario unless it truly is the worst case scenario”! Fortunately, I didn’t anger whatever gods exist in this place. And the Skins score a touchdown right before half to cash our first ticket.

3:00 PM – An hour until the draft starts, time for some pre-draft mingling at the bar in the place where the draft will take place. The mingling turns into business quickly as Fearsome Foursome and Beef Gravy All-Stars swing a deal for the number one overall pick. Fearsome gets the #1 overall pick and #28 overall pick (last pick in the second round), while Gravy gets the #7 and #17. I can tell Gravy likes the deal as the two gladiators shake on it. Fearsome gives me his take on the deal, “With the keepers in this league, #7 is no man’s land. It’s like Forte, Lynch or Charles time. If I knew I could get McFadden or Brees there, I wouldn’t budge but as I see it there is no way. And if I am left to choose, I will screw it up. Now I go Ray Rice. And the player I will get at #28 is likely just as good as #17 anyway.” Fair enough, let’s see how it plays out.

3:45 PM – Slowly everyone begins arriving. One big difference between the draft last night and today, as well as the previous year’s drafts in this league, everyone seems genuinely happy to be here, like they’re free from worldly constraints, if only for an afternoon. It’s simple, it’s Vegas, the drink that goes down smooth every time but comes out the next day key a jagged key!

4:00 PM – We make our way into the draft room like we are celebrities. Yikes, it’s smaller than I expected. And there are these damn A-Frame beams sticking out that just about dislocated my shoulder upon walking into the room. The first pick hasn’t been made and I might already be out for 4-6 weeks.

4:05 PM – Computer problems, space problems and BAM! – we have our first Vegas induced blowup. The commish and DA BOYZ go at it. I quickly scurry to the whiteboard to set the following odds (hell, I need to make up for that abortion at the blackjack tables):

The Commish punches someone in the face at any point during the draft: Yes – +800 NO -1200, probably, uh, not going to happen but he was close there. The one thing I am pretty certain has never happened in this league is a fist fight. Now that would be fun!

We lose an owner before the first pick is made: Yes +500 NO -750, much more likely given the exchange and the personalities involved.

The Commish strangles the “I/T” guy trying to get the display on the big screen: Yes +140 NO -160, this frustration is going to come to a violent head, it might as well be the guy who should be able to but can’t figure out how to get the display working.

4:10 PM – Whew! Crisis adverted, commish and DZ BOYZ are now making out in the backroom! I felt along it was just pent up sexual tension; let’s give them a few minutes!

4:20 PM – I’ve done some digging on the blow-up; here are the details, in chorological order beginning at last year’s draft – 1. During the 19th season draft, the Commish decides to have Vegas draft for 20th; 2. I come up with glorious plan to celebrate shortly after last year’s draft; 3. Planning begins, but buy in is low, commish hears about travel costs, room costs, costs, costs, costs. Commish at about a five, where ten is bye-bye aortic valve. At the 4:05PM post, the commish was running at a 12 but somehow the body amazingly was prepared; 4. It is apparent that costs are prohibitive to do anything more than rent a room, to which the commish takes on the responsibility to do, when someone, who shall remain nameless, gets bored with planning a plain-jane draft. Now it’s all on the commish and there is more complaining about costs, costs, costs and time and costs; 5. Commish settles everything, sends everything to league owners and, yep you guessed more complaining. Commish now considering double homicide and ensuing jail time, as a viable alternative to planning the draft; 6. Draft day arrives, commish holding steady at a 9 with aortic valve damaged but functional; 7. Commish is greeted with more complaining and TICK, TICK, TICK – BOOOOOOOOMB. Yup, that about sums it up.

4:30 PM – The commish asks everyone to give a little speech about their fondest memory of the league.

Fearsome Foursome – a trade that went horribly bad; partnered with another owner before that owner couldn’t take him trying to control everything. That was his joke, I know lame!

DA BOYZ – winning the league despite having a team that couldn’t carry the jock of Fearsome Foursome

Weekend Warriors – a trade that went horribly right, Larry Johnson, to hear him tell it, “he just needed a fill in player for a week, give me Larry Johnson for Amani Toomer” Priest Holmes gets hurt, LJ scores 18 touchdowns in 8 weeks, WW wins league easily. Fearsome just told me that he would go watch games with WW on Sundays and every score update was one of his players scoring and when it wasn’t he acted like someone kicked his dog; according to Fearsome, his players couldn’t score if given 7 opportunities from inside the one. “That was a magical year for him” – FF

Ragin Asian – Enjoys the draft, the bond with fellow owners.

Deamons – Winning the first season out, like this is easy! And looks forward to August more than any other time of year.

Holy Crap, it’s getting dusty in here. Man up, already!

Desert Girlies – Winning the Super Bowl twice.

Hawks – Enjoy the group, the draft and their championship.

Avengers – The Bills of the fantasy league, until finally breaking through and winning in 2009. Still enjoys the league immensely.

Sidewinders –Memories of the early days when teamed with Beef Gravy, not making the playoffs and not winning once they did. Looks forward to the league draft, it’s the highlight of his year, means the world to them. Liken Beef to Anakin, himself to Obi-Wan. I can see him as Obi-Wan, specifically the fight between Obi-Wan and Vader, where Obi-Wan waiting forever to swing his light saber at Vader thus giving Vader an opening that he didn’t neglect. Now if only we can implement that into this draft.

Beef Gravy All-Stars – So close so many times, feels he is on the verge. Referenced Ricky Bobby, “If you ain’t first then you last!”

Chefs – King of toilet bowl. “Real memories”, “Christmas in August”, goodness don’t let Wal-Mart hear that, they will have fake trees up in May. Helps him stay connected!

Convicts – Best memories were the previously brought up trades and the four rings, wants one for the thumb this year. Also, brought up bad moves that still sting – the aforementioned LJ trade and dropping MeMarco Murray prior to Murrary rushing for a country mile against, yup you guessed it, the Rams!

Junk Yard Dogs – Starting in the league just to help out a guy named Scott Carlson, then ended up taking over the team when Scott decided to retire. Also, mentioned that he appreciates the “hard time Bill gives him every year”.

4:39 PM – I can’t let the JYD memory go without some comments of my own – 1. Several owners gave a hearty thanks to Scott Carlson for leaving and bequeathing the team to JYD; and 2. This is a guy who frequently uses a gay voice that would make Richard Simmons seem like Jack Palance, what’s this “hard time” deal. Wait, I don’t want to know, that’s their business.

4:40 PM – Wait, do we finally have the display working? I thought maybe so because a fellow owner made a crack about the commish visiting a website called biggirls.com. OK, I think the commish is back to normal. I cringed when I heard the comment, thinking that it might light the fuse again, only this time he would turn into Nic Cage in Leaving Las Vegas and start turning over tables!

4:50 PM – 50 minutes into the draft and nary a pick. But hey it’s Vegas, where we have all the time in the world, right? Or at least until our money runs out. There are very few places that can turn rational thinking people into an irrational, impulsive mutant upon stepping off the plane, but Vegas is definitely one of them. Amsterdam is another. Hey, maybe if you secretly don’t like the commish, suggest that next year we have the draft in Amsterdam.

4:51 PM – And the first pick is . . . Ray Rice.

4:53 PM – Sidewinders on the clock – oh my, only 30 seconds. Crap, maybe this guy has a hooker waiting for him on the back end of this. Just remember, Sidewinders, “What happens here, stays here!” Well, except for certain STD’s, like herpes, which definitely doesn’t stay here.

4:54 PM – Weekend Warriors go all-in on Tom Brady this year. Safe to say if Bernard Pollard happens again, Weekend Warriors will have a miserable fantasy season.

4:55 PM – The first surprise of the draft – Matty Ice at number 6 goes to Chefs, who has Julio Jones, so I guess I can see wanting to pair the two, but at number 6? Safe to say, I have my loser for round one. I am not a fan of Matty Ice, he hasn’t produced a great fantasy year and certainly not one worthy of the number six pick. Again, I guess if you want him, you draft him when you have the chance. Goodness even the edge if off me this year. That’s a pick that I would ramble off roughly 1000 words on how it’s the biggest mistake of that owners life.

4:56 PM – Fearsome Foursome just let out a massive groan as he hears the words “Darren McFadden” with the 7th pick. Odds that FF goes on a 12 state killing spree if Darren McFadden is the top fantasy running back this year – +10000, here is a little inside info – take the chance, the guy is that volatile, if you mix his hyper-competitiveness, I can totally see him snapping!

4:58 PM – Another cross-over owner who survived the most boring draft in the history of drafts yesterday which is detailed in part I, is going all-in on a player, this time it’s Marshawn Lynch. Be careful big fella, Marshawn doesn’t have “beast” mode available to him when his wallet is fat!

4:59 PM – So the league had some scoring changes this season, most notably the passing touchdowns are reduced from 6 points to 4 points, yet that hasn’t deterred the run of quarterbacks in the first round – Rodgers is a keeper, but Brady, Ryan, Brees and Eli Manning are all first rounders. I am wondering if the Desert Girlies think we also implemented my rule change about coupling players together – like they think they get Eli, Peyton, Cooper and Archie’s retro points by taking “Manning.” Or maybe the missing partner is the brains behind the operation! It’s hard to bash a team that’s won two rings, but let’s leave it at that was a “nice pick” – for all the other owners in the league.

Pick

Franchise

Selection

1.01 Fearsome Foursome Rice, Ray BAL RB
1.02 The GSW Rule Johnson, Calvin DET WR
1.03 Sidewinders Johnson, Chris TEN RB
1.04 Weekend Warriors Brady, Tom NEP QB
1.05 Convicts Brees, Drew NOS QB
1.06 Chefs Ryan, Matt ATL QB
1.07 BeefGravy AllStars McFadden, Darren OAK RB
1.08 Daemons Forte, Matt CHI RB
1.09 Ragin Asian Charles, Jamaal KCC RB
1.10 DA BOYZ FROM NYC Lynch, Marshawn SEA RB
1.11 DESERT GRRLIE Manning, Eli NYG QB
1.12 Avengers Jennings, Greg GBP WR
1.13 Junk Yard Dogs Johnson, Andre HOU WR
1.14 Desperados Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR
Colin Wynner calls the round winner and loser:
Winner Beef Gravy All-Stars, Best player available at #5 fell to #7
Loser Sidewinders, the running back formerly known as CJ2K, now simply known as CJPUSSOUTK

5:02 PM – Another “nice pick” – Andre Johnson. This “nice pick” is actually stated by several owners, some sarcastically. In all honesty, it is a nice pick, but I wouldn’t want Andre on my fantasy teams this year. First off, he is a huge injury risk; then, he is slightly over-rated, he has had a few monster games, but his seasonal numbers do not warrant where he generally is picked, thirdly, the Texans would be happy running the ball 50 times a game; and finally, the Texans play great defense, so the chance of them getting into one of those crazy 35-31 shootouts is minimal. Add it all up, and, if Andre stays healthy, you are most likely looking at about 80-1000-8, 228 points, which will be top 15 but not top three.

5:06 PM – Oh, wow, Adrian Peterson goes in the Beef Gravy trade spot. So, Beef two picks and a keeper in has McFadden, Peterson and Vick – over/under on games missed by that trio – 13.5. But if AP is 85% of “AP”, he is a steal at 17. And if by playoff time AP is AP, well then we can start engraving the trophy with Beef’s name. Wait, there’s no traveling trophy with this league. 20 years and no hardware? Wow, if I could go back in time, a la Biff Tannen, I would go back to the very first draft and tell the commish, “Trust me, you need a cup for the champions. And not just a cup, a cup about a quarter the size of the Stanley Cup, with enough room to engrave 50 or so champions. Just trust me, kid!” Now, imagine if we had a cup. The defending champ each would be antagonizing other owners by asking the servers to fill up the cup with beer. Then they would casually take drinks as the other owners watch in envy. And think about how much different the opening memories would have been – “Your favorite memory and one thing unique thing you did with the cup.” About the third “unique thing I did with the cup” story would cause the defending champ to spit out a mouthful of beer while grabbing the nearest bowl/can/cup for their puke. Oh what could have been!

5:11 PM – #ThingsIoverheardatthefantasydraft – “I have a knife but no fork!” Hmm, did you pay for the fork, it is Vegas after all? That’s extra, you know. And I have to say, it’s Vegas, the most decadent place in the universe and it’s a fantasy draft, WTF do you need a fork for? Pick up the food and eat it like a Neanderthal.

Pick

Franchise

Selection

2.01 Desperados Gates, Antonio SDC TE
2.02 Junk Yard Dogs Schaub, Matt HOU QB
2.03 BeefGravy AllStars Peterson, Adrian MIN RB
2.04 DESERT GRRLIE Nicks, Hakeem NYG WR
2.05 DA BOYZ FROM NYC Jackson, Steven STL RB
2.06 Ragin Asian White, Roddy ATL WR
2.07 Daemons McGahee, Willis DEN RB
2.08 The GSW Rule Cruz, Victor NYG WR
2.09 Chefs Green, A.J. CIN WR
2.10 Convicts Martin, Doug TBB RB (R)
2.11 Weekend Warriors Welker, Wes NEP WR
2.12 Sidewinders Colston, Marques NOS WR
2.13 Avengers Rivers, Philip SDC QB
2.14 Fearsome Foursome Marshall, Brandon CHI WR
Colin Wynner calls the round winner and loser:
Winner Fearsome Foursome, Marshall at 28 and after Colston, Green, Welker and Cruz.
Loser Junk Yard Dogs, Andre Johnson and Matt Schuab, what pair, if one spent 3rd and 5th round picks on them, not 1st and 2nd.

5:19 PM – Reggie Bush is picked, which prompts the vastly under-utilized, “We’ve got Bush!” Well played Data Entry Boy, there might be hope for you after all. Back to the “We’ve got Bush”. That is at least a 100 times better than the elementary “I like Bush” comment. And of course, that line is from Revenge of the Nerds, which I always felt was an under-rated movie. Look it’s not a masterpiece, but it delivers exactly what you would expect from it. And, Betty Childs was sneaky, crazy hot, right? There was Ogre, the aforementioned Neanderthal, who has parlayed that movie’s success into a series of Capital One commercials; I can almost hear Ogre telling everyone on Capital One set, “Do you know who I am? Do you?” And how about Stan Gable, who was the perfect d-bag jock played by Ted McGinley. I always thought McGinley should have had a better career, more similar to Brad Pitt than to Paul Walker, but for reasons unknown he never accomplished much more than playing Marcy D’Arcy’s husband on Married with Children. Anyway, I might be in the minority but that was a classic 80s movie! The nerds used their brains to out-think the jocks, now-a-days the same plot would undoubtedly include some kind of violent retribution where the nerd tortures a jock for 60 days in his basement before killing him.

5:23 PM – Ahh, Darren Sproles goes to Sidewinders. Someone did his homework and paid attention to the receptions rule change that gives running backs .5 per reception, as opposed to .25 last year.

5:29 PM – Is there anything better than taking a piss break in the middle of a fantasy draft and coming back to find that you haven’t missed anything? Sure, there roughly a million things better than that, but at this moment it was big to me.

5:31 PM – WTF? Who had the balls to order swordfish? Oh my, Sidewinders, if I wasn’t such a docile individual, I would come over there punch square in the face and revoke your man card! Please tell me how the broiled sea scallops, steamed vegatables and tossed salad with no dressing compliment that fine choice of entrée? That might be the single most disappointing thing I have every encountered in a fantasy draft. We need to stop the draft, get this guy a plate full of fried wings, and cheer him on while he devours them. It’s Vegas, man. Those wings will stay here, live it up man, you have permission to break the rules after all, this is Vegas!!!
5:38 PM – #ThingsIoverheardatthefantasydraft – “please spell that for me”. The pick was Donald Brown!

5:43 PM – Vernon Davis is the pick, huh, most people try to avoid VD. #NeverGetsOld. And oh, btw, VD is another thing that won’t stay in Vegas.

Pick

Franchise

Selection

3.01 BeefGravy AllStars Bush, Reggie MIA RB
3.02 Avengers Hernandez, Aaron NEP TE
3.03 Sidewinders Sproles, Darren NOS RB
3.04 Weekend Warriors Richardson, Trent CLE RB (R)
3.05 Convicts Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB
3.06 Chefs Turner, Michael ATL RB
3.07 Fearsome Foursome Smith, Steve CAR WR
3.08 Daemons Bryant, Dez DAL WR
3.09 Ragin Asian Lloyd, Brandon NEP WR
3.10 DA BOYZ FROM NYC Gonzalez, Tony ATL TE
3.11 DESERT GRRLIE Gore, Frank SFO RB
3.12 The GSW Rule Mathews, Ryan SDC RB
3.13 Junk Yard Dogs Bradshaw, Ahmad NYG RB
3.14 Desperados Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB
Colin Wynner calls the round winner and loser:
Winner Sidewinders, Sproles, the increase in receptions make him a steal in the third round
Loser DA BOYZ FROM NYC, Tony Gonzalez. Really? Ahead of Vernon Davis, Jason Witten and Jermichael Finley?

5:46 PM – Sidewinders is now if full Sidewinder mode, which translated means he is talking too long to make a pick. I get it, this is where it gets tough, but come on, hey wait we’re in Vegas, who cares! Take all the time you need buddy! But that does get me thinking of another classic 80s movie – Fast Times at Ridgemont High. And at the mere mention of that movie, you immediately think about the “Phoebe Cates coming out of the pool” scene, yup, you know I got you! I will confess I laughed so hard I thought I was going to die when after Mr. Hand tore up Spicoli’s class schedule prompting Spicoli to look him dead in the eye and tell him, “You Dick!” It came from nowhere, and to be honest, I snuck into the movie because I wasn’t old enough, so for a young teen, that was pretty, pretty, pretty funny. Anyway, in about five years or so, I might show up at Sidewinders house and pull a Mr. Hand – “Sidewinder, by my measurements you’ve cost me well over six hours, I am here to collect. You and I are going to eat fried food until you puke!”

5:48 PM – Beef Gravy is going through his nicknames, I like James Earl Jones for him, simply because he gets up to announce every pick in a voice that rivals James Earl’s for smoothness. But I think a more fitting one is Art Shell, almost identical now that I look at him, like maybe they were conjoined twins, who for health reasons had to be separated at birth, except Beef got 75% of the brain.

Pick

Franchise

Selection

4.01 Desperados Brown, Antonio PIT WR
4.02 Junk Yard Dogs Brown, Donald IND RB
4.03 The GSW Rule Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB
4.04 DESERT GRRLIE Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE
4.05 DA BOYZ FROM NYC Bowe, Dwayne KCC WR
4.06 Ragin Asian Ingram, Mark NOS RB
4.07 Daemons Jackson, Vincent TBB WR
4.08 Fearsome Foursome Wayne, Reggie IND WR
4.09 Chefs Davis, Vernon SFO TE
4.10 Convicts Jackson, DeSean PHI WR
4.11 Weekend Warriors Jackson, Fred BUF RB
4.12 Sidewinders Maclin, Jeremy PHI WR
4.13 Avengers Foster, Arian HOU RB
4.14 BeefGravy AllStars Crabtree, Michael SFO WR
Colin Wynner calls the round winner and loser:
Winner Desperados, Antonio Brown. I like him a lot this year; Book it, he will out-score all of the receivers in this round.
Loser Ragin Asian, Mark Ingram. Maybe Asian knows something we don’t about that Saints backfield.

6:00 PM – Break time, time to update the aforementioned football bets – winners, 1st half Redskins, Redskins side, Redskins/Colts Over, 1st half Cowboys looking good as they are up 17-3. Cowboys side also looks promising, but the under is in serious danger. The Lions are scoreless early. I am feeling pretty good about those bets so maybe I have time to sneak in a dozen or so hands $25 blackjack before the break is over.

6:08 PM – I knew it wouldn’t be long before we heard data entry boy’s gay voice. He actually does it well enough that you just never know. Hmm, what would happen to the league is one of the owners came out of the closet? That is an interesting question and before I am ostracized by the gay and lesbian community for my intolerance, let me state for the record that I am merely pointing how a significant, albeit acceptable, change to one’s lifestyle would no doubt change the dynamic of a league that has been in existence for 20 years. Good enough? Ok, on with the gay bashing – kidding, kidding. Anyway, you to figure that if one of the owners did come out of the closet it would have to be because they got caught just like Soprano’s Vito Spatafore got caught, wearing a tight leather outfit with a cute, blinged-out leather hat. Once caught the owner would sheepishly show up at the next draft. The question is would it change the dynamic? I highly doubt it unless the owners new partner was an NFL player with inside information. Would it be distracting? Not unless said owner brought their partner and became inappropriate, of course that could be said for a mid-life crisis owner who shows up with his new “girlfriend”, er, “paid escort” and they are all over each other.

Pick

Franchise

Selection

5.01 BeefGravy AllStars Witten, Jason DAL TE
5.02 Avengers Harvin, Percy MIN WR
5.03 Sidewinders Austin, Miles DAL WR
5.04 Weekend Warriors Finley, Jermichael GBP TE
5.05 Convicts Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR
5.06 Chefs Wallace, Mike PIT WR
5.07 Fearsome Foursome Johnson, Steve BUF WR
5.08 Daemons Romo, Tony DAL QB
5.09 Ragin Asian Smith, Torrey BAL WR
5.10 DA BOYZ FROM NYC McCoy, LeSean PHI RB
5.11 DESERT GRRLIE Pettigrew, Brandon DET TE
5.12 Fearsome Foursome Cutler, Jay CHI QB
5.13 Junk Yard Dogs Green-Ellis, BenJarvus CIN RB
5.14 Desperados Stafford, Matthew DET QB
Colin Wynner calls the round winner and loser:
Winner Avengers, Percy Harvin. Less focus on the running game with AP working himself back, means more touches for Harvin.
Loser Junk Yard Dogs, BenJarvus Green-Ellis. This is a first, calling the worst pick of the round a keeper, but why give up a 5th round pick for a guy you could draft in the 7th. And if another owner really wanted him bad enough to take him in the 4th round, well then so be it – it just wasn’t meant to be.

6:13 PM – Nice job, Pierre! Pierre Garcon is the pick. Isn’t that funny how a commercial can stick with you? The “Nice job, Pierre” is, of course, from the Miller High Life commercial where the man’s man tells us “It’s hard to respect the French when you have to bail them out of two big ones. But they do have something with mayonnaise. Nice job, Pierre.” Classic! And while we’re on the subject, here are five more of my favorite commercials:

  1. Bud Light Refs – Budweiser’s response to the Miller Lite referee commericials where a referee would interrupt a party where Bud Light was being served by throwing a flag and then announcing a penalty. Bud Light spun off the same concept expect fast forwarded the story to where the refs were gleefully escaping with the “skunky” beer that was actually Bud Light.
  2. Just about any of the Jack Links “Messing With Sasquatch” commercials though this one was always a favorite.
  3. About the time other airlines started charging for checked bags, Southwest came out with a commercial where a deep sea diving guide had a student under the water. The customer was trying to breath but was getting no oxygen, his face became panicked as the instructor told him, “Oh, air is an extra $35 dollars. Do you want that?” The student, obviously, was quite eager to agree to the charge. Another classic – the clam approach of the instructor was perfect as was the panicked look by the student,
  4. Bud Light Referee Training – Just watch it, I think you’ll understand the humor.
  5. Prehistoric FedEx – Funny and hits close to home, well for any of us who have had boss who was/is a total prick.

6:23 PM – That’s the way you do back-to-back picks – bing, bing! Not sure if there was a lot of thought in the picks, but there is a blackjack seat that has my name on it, so who am I to complain – this picks, Brent Celek and Santana Moss.

Pick

Franchise

Selection

6.01 Desperados Ridley, Stevan NEP RB
6.02 Junk Yard Dogs Young, Titus DET WR
6.03 The GSW Rule Davis, Fred WAS TE
6.04 DESERT GRRLIE Meachem, Robert SDC WR
6.05 DA BOYZ FROM NYC Garcon, Pierre WAS WR
6.06 Ragin Asian Tamme, Jacob DEN TE
6.07 Daemons Manning, Peyton DEN QB
6.08 The GSW Rule Wilson, David NYG RB (R)
6.09 Chefs Jones, Julio ATL WR
6.10 Convicts Hillis, Peyton KCC RB
6.11 Weekend Warriors Benson, Cedric GBP RB
6.12 Sidewinders Freeman, Josh TBB QB
6.13 Avengers Greene, Shonn NYJ RB
6.14 BeefGravy AllStars Celek, Brent PHI TE
Colin Wynner calls the round winner and loser:
Winner The GSW Rule, Fred Davis. Freddy might have a top five year.
Loser DESERT GRRLIE, Robert Meachem. Meachem is a poor man’s Yancey Thigpen, who is a poor man’s Javon Walker, who is a poor’s man Alvin Harper. Translation – he’s a bust in the 18th round, in the 6th round it’s a colossal choke on par with the 2004 New York Yankees.

6:28 PM – And there goes the first defense of the draft – 49ers. Look I am ok with a defense going here, but is that the right defense. I have my doubts, I mean think about the worst thing that can happen to you after this draft – you hit the strip and find one of these love lovely ladies ready to spend some “quality” time with you, but once you get to the point of intimacy you find out the lovely lady is a dude. I just puked in my mouth thinking about it. Anyway, I think that’s a little like taking the 49ers this early, you might think you’re getting Kim Kardashian, but in reality it is Kimbo Slice!

6:37 PM – We’ve got a race against time. We get booted at 8PM, if booted meant either get out or start paying 300 an hour with a two hour minimum. We’ve got 11 rounds to go, so roughly 8 minutes a round. Not. Going. To. Happen.

Pick

Franchise

Selection

7.01 BeefGravy AllStars Moss, Santana WAS WR
7.02 Avengers Decker, Eric DEN WR
7.03 Sidewinders Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB
7.04 Weekend Warriors Daniels, Owen HOU TE
7.05 Convicts Britt, Kenny TEN WR
7.06 Chefs Wells, Beanie ARI RB
7.07 Fearsome Foursome Heyward-Bey, Darrius OAK WR
7.08 Daemons Helu, Roy WAS RB
7.09 Ragin Asian Williams, Ryan ARI RB
7.10 DA BOYZ FROM NYC Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB
7.11 DESERT GRRLIE 49ers, San Francisco SFO Def
7.12 The GSW Rule Smith, Kevin DET RB
7.13 Junk Yard Dogs Boldin, Anquan BAL WR
7.14 Desperados Little, Greg CLE WR
Colin Wynner calls the round winner and loser:
Winner DA BOYZ FROM NYC, Ben Roethlisberger. I am not sure how the Steelers are going to move the ball unless Big Ben throws 50 times a game.
Loser DESERT GRRLIE, 49ers D. A day after Jerry Sandusky was accused of heinous acts against young boys, I wanted to break out the “Damn, the Colts got the Sandusky shower treatment from the Falcons”, but I didn’t. Why? Too soon. The 49ers d here is too soon

6:43 PM – Jared Cook goes in the 8th round, hmm, I liked him as a sleeper, but then I realized there are no more sleepers in this world. You know you’re getting old when things like “I remember when you had to watch the games and evaluate the players to figure out your draft list. Now you can show up with a draft list from ESPN.COM and draft a playoff team. I hate fantasy football! I really do.

Pick

Franchise

Selection

8.01 Desperados Floyd, Malcom SDC WR
8.02 Junk Yard Dogs Mendenhall, Rashard PIT RB
8.03 The GSW Rule Gresham, Jermaine CIN TE
8.04 DESERT GRRLIE Gerhart, Toby MIN RB
8.05 DA BOYZ FROM NYC Holmes, Santonio NYJ WR
8.06 Ragin Asian Texans, Houston HOU Def
8.07 Daemons Cook, Jared TEN TE
8.08 Fearsome Foursome Spiller, C.J. BUF RB
8.09 Chefs Flacco, Joe BAL QB
8.10 Convicts Graham, Jimmy NOS TE
8.11 Weekend Warriors Rice, Sidney SEA WR
8.12 Sidewinders Keller, Dustin NYJ TE
8.13 Avengers Ravens, Baltimore BAL Def
8.14 BeefGravy AllStars Steelers, Pittsburgh PIT Def
Colin Wynner calls the round winner and loser:
Winner The GSW Rule, Jermaine Gresham. This might be the season Gresham catapults himself into the “Best TE” conversation
Loser Junk Yard Dogs, Rashard Mendenhall. Big surprise here, Mendehall about 6 round too soon.

6:46 PM – Time update, 10 rounds left and 74 minutes. No way we are making it, we’re going to get kicked to the curb which means we will be finishing this draft right in the middle of pimp gang pushing the business cards of the $35 hookers. True story, I was walking down the strip, and was handed five of these cards, which I thought was awesome because when I choosing a hooker I want have options. That’s not true. But what is true is that I head to a poker table, interrupt the game and drop my five “hooker” cards on the table while screaming “can anyone beat this Royal Bush” or “Read it and weep, suckers, I’ve got five pairs”. As I was thinking of all the possible ways to use these cards at the poker table, it donned on me, “Hmm, $35 bucks, huh, dam I would love to see what $35 really looks like, because I am pretty damn sure that it isn’t what is on this card.” And if it is what’s on this card, then she needs a new pimp!

6:55 PM – Wow, a really cool guy from the New York, New York just told us we can stay as long as we need. Awesome, that was all Sidewinder needed to hear! We will now be here all night! In fact, my guess is a few of the owners who were complaining about room costs didn’t get a room, so they’re hoping we actually can stay here all night.

Pick

Franchise

Selection

9.01 BeefGravy AllStars Janikowski, Sebastian OAK PK
9.02 Avengers Griffin III, Robert WAS QB (R)
9.03 Sidewinders Jennings, Rashad JAC RB
9.04 Weekend Warriors Washington, Nate TEN WR
9.05 Convicts Rodgers, Jacquizz ATL RB
9.06 Chefs Thomas, Pierre NOS RB
9.07 Fearsome Foursome Blackmon, Justin JAC WR (R)
9.08 Daemons Redman, Isaac PIT RB
9.09 Ragin Asian Blount, LeGarrette TBB RB
9.10 DA BOYZ FROM NYC Jets, New York NYJ Def
9.11 DESERT GRRLIE Manningham, Mario SFO WR
9.12 The GSW Rule Packers, Green Bay GBP Def
9.13 Junk Yard Dogs Moore, Denarius OAK WR
9.14 Desperados Tate, Ben HOU RB
Colin Wynner calls the round winner and loser:
Winner Junk Yard Dogs, Denarius Moore. JYD has a long way to go to make his team competitive but this is a start
Loser Beef Gravy All-Stars, Sebastian Janikowski. It would be interesting to look back on this pick and ask what if you drafted D. Moore instead, then went SeaBass when he should go, like round 18.

6:57 PM – Round 10, this is where it gets tough!

6:59 PM – That’s something you don’t see every day – a human being polishing off a second entrée within a single sitting. I ask the waitress what the record for entrees in a single setting by a single human. She gives me a blank stare, like eff you jerk off I’ve taken enough crap from you and your a-hole buddies tonight. But after a bit of teasing I reel her in, now she gets it, enough to start playing along. She must be a third year marketing major at UNLV, right? Isn’t every server/bartender/hostess studying to be a lawyer/financial advisor/doctor? And don’t you find out about that within five minutes of sitting down? Anyway, she tells DA BOYZ that he is one entrée away from setting the record for a single sitting. Right now he is tied with some odd 5 million people (of course, only half of those people are still alive). I urge him to go for a French Dip or, hell even the Swordfish, but I tell him if you go Swordfish it needs to be fried. He’s not buying and frankly he looks like he might not eat again for a couple weeks, either way, I don’t care if he ends up in a food induced coma tonight, I am getting this the record. It’s only so often you get the chance to experience greatness, I will be damned if I am going to let this opportunity pass.

7:02 PM – Oh lookie here, Chase Daniel is in the game for the Saints. Chase Daniel is Drew Brees backup, but I have to ask, “Can you really trust a guy who got caught on camera eating a booger?” Think about how long the odds are that you would actually get caught eating a booger on camera – first off, you have to eat boogers; secondly, you have to eat boogers almost all the time; and thirdly, you have to be on camera. A couple things about the clip – 1. This was against Nebraska, with the Huskers leading 27-13, so maybe he was so disgusted that his team was losing to such an inferior team that he self punished himself. Goodness, I was so grossed out by this that I actually wish he was an emo instead; and 2. He tries to be a little discreet by not just devouring the booger despite clearly salivating, however, the temptation is too much for him. Damn be the 95 players and camera on his ass. It makes me think that Chase is just one of those guys. You know a guy who openly admits that he smells his hand after scratching his anus, a guy who has no problem proclaiming that he is excusing himself to relieve himself in the restroom and a guy who has no problem digging for a juicy, blood spotted with a single hair in the middle ball of snot to tide him over until he can cough up enough snot to fill his boiler. Yup Saints fans, that’s your guy when Brees goes down. Enjoy that!

7:05 PM – I am sure this room has adequate lighting but we started at mid-afternoon, so we were relying mostly on natural lighting from two over-sized windows that take up almost the entire width of the room. However, those are about 75% covered with our draft board, which also blocks the view to the south end of the strip because who wants to see what’s going on the strip, certainly not the fantasy “geeks” in this room. But now the sun is going down and with the blockage for the mega-draft board it’s getting dark, so the server came in and turned on the lights. Literally, in unison, I heard at least four owners say something to the effect, “Oh, wow, I thought you were much better looking.” Nice!

Pick

Franchise

Selection

10.01 Desperados Henderson, Devery NOS WR
10.02 Junk Yard Dogs Bush, Michael CHI RB
10.03 The GSW Rule Baldwin, Doug SEA WR
10.04 DESERT GRRLIE Robinson, Laurent JAC WR
10.05 DA BOYZ FROM NYC Olsen, Greg CAR TE
10.06 Ragin Asian Cobb, Randall GBP WR
10.07 Daemons Nelson, Jordy GBP WR
10.08 Fearsome Foursome Rudolph, Kyle MIN TE
10.09 Chefs Eagles, Philadelphia PHI Def
10.10 Convicts Luck, Andrew IND QB (R)
10.11 Weekend Warriors Williams, Mike TBB WR
10.12 Sidewinders Lions, Detroit DET Def
10.13 Avengers Akers, David SFO PK
10.14 BeefGravy AllStars Quick, Brian STL WR (R)
Colin Wynner calls the round winner and loser:
Winner Weekend Warriors, Mike Williams. After a huge rookie year, Mike Williams jumped up to as high as second round consider last season, now he falls to the 10th. He’s somewhere is between – 6th round of so, with the potential to play to 4th round.
Loser Sidewinders, Detroit Def. Uh, this either has to be a homer pick or the swordfish was bad. What did they do to upgrade a defense that was solely responsible for getting Matt Flynn $26 Million.

7:12 PM – I decided to go with the Welker jersey for the day. It was definitely the right move, as I have logged more time talking while taking a leak on this trip than I have in my entire life to date. I attribute the attention to the Welker jersey, because no team has more gained more fans over the decade than the Patriots. And one more thing on the jersey, look it takes balls for a grown man to wear a jersey around in public, but I love it. I love posing as a fan of another team. Moreover, I usually have enough useless knowledge stored in my head that I can fool even the most die-hard fan.

7:20 PM – Just about every one of these drafts I hear something that makes me want to find a corner, scrunch into the fetal postion and grab my thumb. Yeah, it’s that horrifying. Well, that moment just happened as another owner told the commish, “You can’t get it up … ” {find your happy place, find your happy place}.

7:27 PM – We take a break to have another moment of dedication to the 20th of the league. I must say 20 years is very impressive, but WTF are these guys/gals going to do without this league? I had a chance to talk about this with Fearsome, who told me he feels a little like one of those kidnap victims, who forms a strange bond with his captors. He wants to quit, but he feels held captive by the league and in reality needs the league. Ah, what a puss, he’s pathetic!

7:30 PM – Someone, just took that little girl’s (Fearsome) player, Kendall Wright. Really, pal, Kendall Wright. I would be willing to bet that there are a dozen players either drafted after Wright or free agents who will out-score him. How’s that for BOLD! By the way that pick also ties a fantasy football draft record for consecutive picks of players named “Kendall”, Warriors can help us set a record by drafting Kendall Langford. Oh, what a buzz kill, Warriors has no balls and goes with Davone Bess. BOO, BOO, BOO!

Pick

Franchise

Selection

11.01 BeefGravy AllStars Vick, Michael PHI QB
11.02 Avengers Hunter, Kendall SFO RB
11.03 Sidewinders Wright, Kendall TEN WR (R)
11.04 Weekend Warriors Bess, Davone MIA WR
11.05 Convicts Simpson, Jerome MIN WR
11.06 Chefs Gostkowski, Stephen NEP PK
11.07 Fearsome Foursome Moore, Lance NOS WR
11.08 Daemons Thomas, Daniel MIA RB
11.09 Ragin Asian Crosby, Mason GBP PK
11.1 DA BOYZ FROM NYC LaFell, Brandon CAR WR
11.11 DESERT GRRLIE Smith, Alex SFO QB
11.12 The GSW Rule Moss, Randy SFO WR
11.13 Junk Yard Dogs Bradford, Sam STL QB
11.14 Desperados Baldwin, Jon KCC WR
Colin Wynner calls the round winner and loser:
Winner Avengers, Kendall Hunter. Huge upside, unless you believe Frank Gore and his cane can keep this job the entire year.
Loser Convicts, Jerome Simpson. You know a player shouldn’t be drafted when their namesake, O.J., has given up the hunt for Nicole’s killers to try to find Jerome Simpson’s game. IN related news, O.J. has sworn off mirrors.

7:38 PM – I keep trying to get DA BOYZ to order another entrée, I reminded him of Chevy Chase in Funny Farm with the “lamb fries” record. He’s still not buying I think if I slip some “Super Colon Blow” in his water, he will free up space to accommodate a third, and record setting entrée.

7:50 PM – Ok, the one thing I need to take up with the commish is that I was promised, if I showed to put together this novel of a running log, that I would be treated to a couple of hookers. Where the hell are the hookers? It’s the 12th round, the time is right.

7:52 PM – The log is getting a little racy and for the record, the 7:50PM post was a complete joke, so when beautiful wife reads this, honey, I was just kidding, I figured that at the 7,500 word mark most people need something to shake them up, to get them back involved – THERE ARE NO HOOKERS! Also, in the interest of full disclosure, just in case something goes horribly wrong in the next five years and some divorce lawyer is trying to digging up dirt on me – THERE ARE NO HOOKERS – IT WAS JOKE, JUST A JOKE!

Pick

Franchise

Selection

12.01 Desperados Leshoure, Mikel DET RB
12.02 Junk Yard Dogs Kendricks, Lance STL TE
12.03 The GSW Rule Amendola, Danny STL WR
12.04 DESERT GRRLIE Floyd, Michael ARI WR (R)
12.05 DA BOYZ FROM NYC Collie, Austin IND WR
12.06 Ragin Asian Palmer, Carson OAK QB
12.07 Daemons Winslow, Kellen FA* TE
12.08 Fearsome Foursome Fleener, Coby IND TE (R)
12.09 Chefs Starks, James GBP RB
12.10 Convicts Moeaki, Tony KCC TE
12.11 Weekend Warriors Fitzpatrick, Ryan BUF QB
12.12 Sidewinders Kaeding, Nate SDC PK
12.13 Avengers Dickson, Ed BAL TE
12.14 BeefGravy AllStars Ford, Jacoby OAK WR
Colin Wynner calls the round winner and loser:
Winner Desperados, Mikel Leshoure. I know the Lions don’r run much, but that might be because they don’t have a running back. Leshoure will get a chance to be the guy, four weeks before Best comes back.
Loser Sidewinders, Nate Kaeding. Dude hasn’t won the job yet. And guess what if he doesn’t, you either need to fill a roster spot with a useless backup kicker or take a zero week one. Fantasy geeks take note – Kickers are random, not worthy of single digit round picks nor worthy of being on your bench.

7:55 PM – I have to be honest another owner is trying to have a conversation with me, but I am not listening, I am fully focused on the Cowboys protecting a 20-12 lead with about 6 minutes left. I am so done with this draft; all of my attention is focused on this pre-season game that is holding my money hostage.

8:05 PM – Well done Dallas, well I know that if the Cowboys third team gets in any games this year, I should dump my retirement account against them. But I have to give a hearty thanks to Jeff Fisher who decided against overtime and kicked the extra point – 20-19 Cowboys, final. Under cashes, but side doesn’t. Oh and the Lions spit the bit, what a shock! So, 5-2 overall. Not too shabby, but probably not SuperContest worthy. The Cowboys can eat a turd sandwich with extra diarrhea sauce!

Pick

Franchise

Selection

13.01 BeefGravy AllStars Hasselbeck, Matt TEN QB
13.02 Avengers Scott, Bernard CIN RB
13.03 Sidewinders Ponder, Christian MIN QB
13.04 Weekend Warriors Jones, Felix DAL RB
13.05 Convicts Prater, Matt DEN PK
13.06 Chefs Jones, James GBP WR
13.07 Fearsome Foursome Hankerson, Leonard WAS WR
13.08 Daemons Burleson, Nate DET WR
13.09 Ragin Asian Dwyer, Jonathan PIT RB
13.10 DA BOYZ FROM NYC Royster, Evan WAS RB
13.11 DESERT GRRLIE Gould, Robbie CHI PK
13.12 The GSW Rule Dalton, Andy CIN QB
13.13 Junk Yard Dogs Bears, Chicago CHI Def
13.14 Desperados Pead, Isaiah STL RB (R)
Colin Wynner calls the round winner and loser:
Winner Chefs, James Jones. I have never understood why Jones isn’t more highly thought of in Green Bay.
Loser Weekend Warriors, Felix Jones. Nothing personal, Warriors, I just hate Felix Jones.

8:10 PM – Data Entry Boy must have a very easy going personality, otherwise, one of these drafts dude is going to show up and pull a “private pyle” on us. And not Gomer Pyle, the Full Metal Jacket Pyle. The latest is he tried to cut on the commish by asking him if his “balls had dropped”. The commish responded with checkmate, “Yeah, they have right in your mouth!” We got a tea-bagging going on!

Pick

Franchise

Selection

14.01 Desperados Miller, Heath PIT TE
14.02 Junk Yard Dogs Hartley, Garrett NOS PK
14.03 The GSW Rule Bryant, Matt ATL PK
14.04 DESERT GRRLIE Hartline, Brian MIA WR
14.05 DA BOYZ FROM NYC Hillman, Ronnie DEN RB (R)
14.06 Ragin Asian Cowboys, Dallas DAL Def
14.07 Daemons Henery, Alex PHI PK
14.08 Fearsome Foursome Murray, DeMarco DAL RB
14.09 Chefs Chandler, Scott BUF TE
14.10 Convicts Giants, New York NYG Def
14.11 Weekend Warriors Seahawks, Seattle SEA Def
14.12 Sidewinders Bullock, Randy HOU PK (R)
14.13 Avengers Sanders, Emmanuel PIT WR
14.14 BeefGravy AllStars Jacobs, Brandon SFO RB
Colin Wynner calls the round winner and loser:
Winner Weekend Warriors, Seattle D. I love them this year. Not as much as I love desk or lamp, but it’s still love.
Loser Sidewinders, Randy Bullock. Two kickers inside of 14 rounds.

8:15 PM – Ok, it’s starting to drag, so let’s float out another idea for a fantasy league. This one is a normal draft, either auction or snake, normal head-to-head schedule with playoffs. But no scoring based on accumulated statistics instead, all the scoring is done based on the advanced stat Win Probability Added (WPA). The idea is as each play takes place the probability of a team winning either, for the most part, goes up or goes down. The difference in those numbers is then attributed to the primary players involved in the play. At the end of the game all of the individual plays are added up to form one total WPA. Your team score is based on the total WPA of all your players. This is more indicative of the true value of a player and much less about, well a quarterback crapped his pants for most of the game, but then had two drives against a prevent defense and his fantasy numbers looked great. Here are a couple examples: Eli Manning against Seattle last season accumulated 26.3 fantasy points, good enough for 4th place on the week, but his WPA was -.20, which was more indicative of the crap game he had. In fact, his counterpart, Tavaris Jackson, outscored him in WPA .11 to -.20.

Pick

Franchise

Selection

15.01 BeefGravy AllStars Willis, Matt DEN WR
15.02 Avengers Vereen, Shane NEP RB
15.03 Sidewinders Powell, Bilal NYJ RB
15.04 Weekend Warriors Bironas, Rob TEN PK
15.05 Convicts Roberts, Andre ARI WR
15.06 Chefs James, LaMichael SFO RB (R)
15.07 Fearsome Foursome Bengals, Cincinnati CIN Def
15.08 Daemons Smith, Steve STL WR
15.09 Ragin Asian Jones, Taiwan OAK RB
15.10 DA BOYZ FROM NYC Cassel, Matt KCC QB
15.11 DESERT GRRLIE Hanson, Jason DET PK
15.12 The GSW Rule Brown, Ronnie SDC RB
15.13 Junk Yard Dogs Davis, Kellen CHI TE
15.14 Desperados Falcons, Atlanta ATL Def
Colin Wynner calls the round winner and loser:
Winner Weekend Warriors, Seattle D. I love them this year. Not as much as I love desk or lamp, but it’s still love.
Loser Sidewinders, Randy Bullock. Two kickers inside of 14 rounds.

8:23 PM – This is where it gets tough! Playing out the string – pretty much like the Red Sox are doing right now with essentially a minor league team playing at the big league level. I have to wonder if maybe some 90 years ago, this was a little bit how it was for the Red Sox. You know they dominated the 1900-1918, then they sold Babe Ruth and the franchise was never the same until 2004. You to think that most fans about 1922 or so thought to themselves, we will be back soon and, even if it takes ten years or so, we have been blessed beyond belief with this team. I may never see another Red Sox championship.

8:30 PM – Kicker Billy Cundiff was just taken. I wonder if Cundiff every was cornered in shop class by three bullies who stole his lunch and asked him “If this is your lunch why doesn’t it say Billy Cuntdiff on it.” Damn, Christine was another under-rated movie of the 80s. Mr. Lebay, “You shitter”, was classic, but by far my favorite part of that movie is when Arnie was pissed at his parents for not letting him keep Christine at home, so much so that he verbally assaulted them and stormed off. His dad chased him to “lay down the law”, and Arnie responded with “Get you mitts off me Mother Effer. {laughs and smacks dad’s face} I am hitting the sack!” Maybe that glorification of a rebellious spirit is why I have such a disdain for authority.

8:34 PM – Andre Caldwell after a lengthy delay goes to Sidewinders, 30 picks to go. It wouldn’t be a running log without the story (this is the year, I start to grow this story) about the time I took a little too long to make a pick and I got the “We waited that long for Mark Carrier”. To which, I chuckled and replied, “Yeah, it was tough, I came down to him and your mother. But then I remembered that your mother is worthless, so I went with Carrier.” He made a move toward me as though he wanted to dance, but before he got to me, I moved to quickly defuse the situation by offering gift. The gift? I purple felt bag with a drawstring tie. He read the knitted inscription, “Teeth” and calmly said, “Hey, thanks. What does this mean?” I responded “Well, if you take one more step toward me, it’s a place to put you fronts when I knock them out.” Five years from now, he will have pulled a gun on me and I will have gone Nico Toscani on him.

Pick

Franchise

Selection

16.01 Desperados Wilson, Russell SEA QB (R)
16.02 Junk Yard Dogs Patriots, New England NEP Def
16.03 The GSW Rule Nelson, David BUF WR
16.04 DESERT GRRLIE Cardinals, Arizona ARI Def
16.05 DA BOYZ FROM NYC Cundiff, Billy WAS PK
16.06 Ragin Asian Bennett, Martellus NYG TE
16.07 Daemons Jeffery, Alshon CHI WR (R)
16.08 Fearsome Foursome Best, Jahvid DET RB
16.09 Chefs Tannehill, Ryan MIA QB (R)
16.10 Convicts McCluster, Dexter KCC WR
16.11 Weekend Warriors Broncos, Denver DEN Def
16.12 Sidewinders Caldwell, Andre DEN WR
16.13 Avengers Hester, Devin CHI WR
16.14 BeefGravy AllStars Owens, Terrell FA* WR
Colin Wynner calls the round winner and loser:
Winner Desperados, Russell Wilson. Say hello to Despy’s keeper for the next five years. Oh that’s right we are going auction next year, so it doesn’t matter.
Loser Convicts, Dexter McCluster. Yeah. It’s round 16, but with Hillis, Charles, Bowe, Moeaki and Baldwin, will there be any room for Dex?

8:47 PM – This is where is gets tough – tough to see, tough to read, tough to speak, you know after almost three hours in a bar with a mandatory spending amount of $100 a person, with everyone is trying to eat and/or drink to that amount, you can fill in the blanks of why it gets tough right now.

8:54 PM – Someone just dropped the Duece, as in Early Doucet. You know it’s healthy to drop an early duece, as well as a mid-morning, late afternoon and pre-sleep deuce. That’s right four deuce’s a day. By the looks of most of the owners, the hotel bathrooms are going to be busy tonight.

Pick

Franchise

Selection

17.01 BeefGravy AllStars Schilens, Chaz NYJ WR
17.02 Avengers Bailey, Dan DAL PK
17.03 Sidewinders Hightower, Tim FA* RB
17.04 Weekend Warriors Grant, Ryan FA* RB
17.05 Convicts Massaquoi, Mohamed CLE WR
17.06 Chefs Tynes, Lawrence NYG PK
17.07 Fearsome Foursome Clark, Dallas TBB TE
17.08 Daemons Chargers, San Diego SDC Def
17.09 Ragin Asian Newton, Cam CAR QB
17.10 DA BOYZ FROM NYC Tebow, Tim NYJ QB
17.11 DESERT GRRLIE Goodson, Mike OAK RB
17.12 The GSW Rule Green, Alex GBP RB
17.13 Junk Yard Dogs Vinatieri, Adam IND PK
17.14 Desperados Feely, Jay ARI PK
Colin Wynner calls the round winner and loser:
Winner DESERT GRRLIE/GSW, Mike Goodson and Alex Green. The only thing between these two and a full work load is Darren Benson or Cedric McFadden.
Loser DA BOYZ FROM NYC, Tim Tebow. No way Rex allow this to turn into the Broncos 2011 season, no matter how bad Sanchez performs.

8:56 PM – ” ” – my notes were illegible for this entry so I can either go with an Eric Dickerson special, “Al, at halftime we’ve learned that water is wet. Back to you Al!” so I will go with another fantasy league idea. The rotisserie fantasy football league. Details:

  • Normal draft, either snake or auction
  • Weekly starting lineups
  • No head-to-head matchups, instead your team accumulates stats in various categories like Passing Yards, Rushing Yards, Receiving Yards, Total Points Scored, Turnovers, Receptions, Return Yards, Yards per Carry, Yards Per pass attempt, etc. Each team is ranked in those categories from 1 to 12 (for 12 team leagues). The points are calculated by adding one to the number of teams and subtracting the place in each category, for example, the team with the 5th most total points scored would receive 8 points for that category.

9:05 PM – It might be the best close to a draft ever – the “50K Hypothetical Question”, which I will now butcher the re-telling:

Son – “Dad, what’s the difference between a hypothetical and a realistic question?”

Dad – “Hmm, son, I tell you what, go ask your mom if should would sleep with the data entry boy for $50,000. Then ask your sister if she would sleep with board boy for $50,000.”

Son (comes back a while later) – “Dad, I asked them and they both said they would.”

Dad – “There is the difference Son, hypothetically we should be sitting on a 100K right now, but realistically we live with two Hos!”

Pick

Franchise

Selection

18.01 Desperados Morris, Alfred WAS RB (R)
18.02 Junk Yard Dogs Hardesty, Montario CLE RB
18.03 The GSW Rule Lewis, Marcedes JAC TE
18.04 DESERT GRRLIE Conner, John NYJ RB
18.05 DA BOYZ FROM NYC Bills, Buffalo BUF Def
18.06 Ragin Asian Doucet, Early ARI WR
18.07 Daemons Carter, Delone IND RB
18.08 Fearsome Foursome Barth, Connor TBB PK
18.09 Chefs Raiders, Oakland OAK Def
18.10 Convicts Weeden, Brandon CLE QB (R)
18.11 Weekend Warriors Walter, Kevin HOU WR
18.12 Sidewinders Hill, Stephen NYJ WR (R)
18.13 Avengers Titans, Tennessee TEN Def
18.14 BeefGravy AllStars Dolphins, Miami MIA Def
Colin Wynner calls the round winner and loser:
Winner Desperados, Alfred Morris. I personally witnessed this kid chewing up the Colts today. He is my hero!
Loser DESERT GRRLIE, John Conner. Do we get fantasy points for leading a band of human renegades against futuristic cyborgs? I didn’t think so.

9:10 PM – Draft over, I am out of here. . .Oh damn, we didn’t meet our minimum. Oh course, Vegas is getting theirs! $200 short and with the “eating machine” gone to cash some winning football bets we might be in trouble. Problem solved, we will order more drinks – wait does it count towards our total if someone has to get their stomach pumped on-site?

Here is the list of additional items ordered to bring to hit the minimum:

  • A “Top Shelf” long island ice tea; that drink is still around? Wow I haven’t heard of that drink since 8th grade. Anyway, why was this owner not ordering “top shelf” from the beginning
  • Patron shots up a kazoo. Personally, I wanted to go for the bottle of Dom, so I could “make it rain” up in this bitch.
  • Enough deserts to feed a third world country

Did we hit our total? Finally, whew! Just about everyone has a green look to them, as they try to swallow a mouthful of food like they are at the end of the Nathan’s hot dog eating contest.

Over/Under on total weight gain by the 16 participants – 79.5, just under five lbs a person. Not. Even. Close. Way. Way over!

Final thought – an owner stated towards the end of the draft, “I would be willing to come back to Vegas for the draft on milestone years!” That’s what I like to hear, see you all next year when the SFL will be old enough, 21, to gamble. Who doesn’t spend their 21st birthday in Vegas?

2012 NFL Predictions – Week 03, “Baby Steps” edition

Colin is baby stepping his way back to .500. Woohoo! The week 3 winners:

Note: I use the LVH Lines from vegasinsider.com. The Super Contest lines are not live, but instead are set and held the entire week.

 

The “SuperContest” picks:

 

Buffalo (-3.0) @ Cleveland – I get it, the Bills bust up those that tough Chiefs team and now they get the right to be favored on the road. The pre-season line on this game was Bills -1, so what have the Bills done in the first two weeks to force that line to move up two points? Honestly, I think the Browns have been more impressive so far this season.

 

Picks: Cleveland +3.0

 

Green Bay (-3.0) @ Seattle – I might just throw Seattle in this spot every week. Is it just me or does feel like a spot where public bettors will hammer the Packers? Three measly points! Of course, if you look at the way the 49ers took it to the Packers in week one and realize the Seahawks are a similar defense, that might provoke some thought on behalf of the public. Nah, that’s too much work!

 

In my mind, the Packers have only beaten teams with gutless quarterbacks. Russell Wilson is not gutless.

 

Picks: Seattle +3.0

 

Philadelphia (-4.0) @ Arizona – I love me some of these home dogs. So, this is a bridge game for the Cardinals where if they win this game everyone, including the odds-makers, will buy into them, meaning I can play the Dolphins next week at plus double digits. In related news, next week’s picks column will be my last column every as I will take my winnings from the Dolphins and retire to Costa Rica. I might setup shop down with a new online gambling website called “NoahWynners.com”, like sign up, deposit money and bet but there are “No a winners, here.”

 

Colin’s 2012 NFL Season Stats

Last Week:

8-7-1

This Week:

1-0-0

2012 Season Record:

15-17-1

2012 SuperContest Record

5-4-1 (Tied for 191st place)

Picks: Arizona +4.0

 

Atlanta @ San Diego (-3.5) – This is a really, really tough spot for the Falcons. Think about the what is going against them – short week, cross country trip and sub-standard coaching staff that allowed the Broncos to stay in the game last week. Plus, I still don’t believe Matty Ice is a legit big time quarterback and that is especially true once a team makes some adjustments on him.

 

Let’s also throw that the Falcons are probably already planning the “Clinched the NFC South Division” party, given the fact the rest of the division looks horrible. Give the Chargers with the hook against me.

 

Picks: San Diego -3.5

 

Houston (-2.5) @ Denver – Yeah, Manning isn’t Manning but at least the Broncos have played somebody this year. Houston would have been better off canceling their first two games with replacements being Alabama and LSU. Those two SEC teams would have given the Texans a better test than the Dolphins and Jags.

 

Picks: Denver +2.5

 

The “Contrarian Move” picks:

 

NY Jets (-1.0) @ Miami – I don’t want to do this, but when 72% of the action is on the Jets, yet has the line moved down 1.5 points, I have to interpret that as someone who does this for living, better known as a “Sharp”, has some information that they used to their advantage to pick a side that lowered the line, despite the overwhelming numbers on that side. The “Sharp” gets down on the game at the best number, in this case +2.5. But unless the number moves below a key number (3 or 7), we can jump on the Sharp information for free.

 

Picks: Miami +1.0

 

Pittsburgh (-3.5) @ Oakland – Pittsburgh has 84% of the action, the number has moved from 4.5 to 3.5. Plus, this feels a lot like an Oakland rout to me. Pittsburgh has been to the west for a week one primetime game, back home and now back west, that’s a lot for a team.

 

Picks: Oakland +3.5

 

The “Bad Matchup”:

 

Tampa Bay @ Dallas (-8.0) – Now I like Tom Coughlin, but his bitching last week about the way the Bucs played the kneel-down was weak. It would’ve been awesome if Schiano would have just clocked Coughlin and then walked away as though nothing happened.

 

This line is way too high at 8 points, but this is bad matchup for a Bucs team that has already over-achieved early this season.

 

    Dallas -8.0

 

The “Right the Ship” picks:

 

Kansas City @ New Orleans (-8.5) – The Romeo watch has begun. Look, in 2011 the Chiefs hated Todd Haley that they rallied around Romeo to win two of their last three games. They loved Romeo, partly because he wasn’t Todd Haley and partly because he was like a giant teddy bear. These 2012 NFL players are fickle though and now they clearly don’t like Romeo and Romeo clearly isn’t a very good NFL head coach.

 

My dream of seeing the Saints winless this season is over . . .

 

Picks: New Orleans -8.5

 

St. Louis @ Chicago (-7.0) – The Bears might be one of those “defining mediocrity” teams that whips the bad teams but gets whipped by the better NFL teams. The Rams are playing tougher, but we should expect a group hug between Cutler and his offensive in the post-game locker room celebration.

 

Picks: Chicago -7.0

The “On Second Thought” pick:

 

Cincinnati @ Washington (-3.0) – So, that opening week win for the Redskins doesn’t look so good now that the Saints are pretty much a train wreck. And losing Brian Orakpo isn’t going to help the Redskins already porous defense, though it will give him more time to figure out Shaq-ism’s in order to defeat the Geico Caveman. Is there a more uncomfortable actor than Orakpo? Like what is Geico thinking, “Hey, can we get Tom Brady? Oh, that’s too much money, what do you have for about 10% of that? Who, Orangutan? Uh, ok.”

 

Picks: Cincinnati +3.0

 

The “Free Money” pick:

 

San Francisco (-6.5) @ Minnesota – You want to know what my feelings on this game? Of course you do, you hang on my every word. Here is the deal, how in the hell are the Vikings going to cover this spread if the 49ers go up 14. The only way is if the 49ers come out flat. Given that they have played two nationally televised high profile games back-to-back and have the Jets on tap, this appears to have that potential especially considering those crafty odds-makers are making the 49ers ever so enticing.

 

Picks: Minnesota +6.5

 

The “Even Horrible Teams Cover Spreads” picks:

 

Detroit (-3.5) @ Tennessee – I guess we can safely say that Chris Johnson is a fantasy football bust and I cannot see it getting any better this week after he threw his O-Line under the bus. What a gutless move. The Titans O-Line should agree to block their asses off for Jamie Harper and pull a Longest Yard move when CJDBAGK runs the ball. That aside, this Lions team is very mediocre.

 

Picks: Tennessee +3.5

 

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis (-3.0) – This game looks way too easy, like the Jaguars are garbage and the Colts are on the move, easy winner, right? Well, this feels like a “big brother v. little brother” game to me, with the Jags playing the part of the big brother. And no matter what the situation or how good little brother is, big brother simply will not let little brother beat him.

 

Picks: Jacksonville +3.0

 

 

The “Toss Up” picks:

 

New England @ Baltimore (-3.0) – The case for the Patriots – a. In the Belichick era, the Pats 11-2 after a loss as an underdog; and b. Their goal last week was to only pull out what they needed, sure it burned them, but they accomplished that goal by showing very little to the Ravens.

 

The case for the Ravens – a. They seem to have the Pats number; b. They’re home; and c. This game means more to them than the Pats.

 

Picks: Baltimore -3.0

 

Colin Wynner calls the winners. Good Luck to all, but mostly to me!

 


 

NFL 2012 – Week #1 Predictions

Football is back. My over/under on weeks before I utter the words, “I hate this league” has settled at 2.5. I am leaning toward the under.

Here are week one picks. Remember, the NFL is my specialty.

Note: I use the LVH Lines from vegasinsider.com. The Super Contest lines are not live, but instead are set and held the entire week.

The “SuperContest” picks:

Seattle (-2.5) @ Arizona – I find it ironic that immediately after Marshawn Lynch gets a huge contract, he is all of sudden down with “back spasms” so bad that it might prevent him from playing in the opener. Wasn’t that the whole issue with Lynch to begin with? It’s like Marshawn plays in “beast” mode when he needs a contract but once he has a deal he plays in “bitch” mode. Nevertheless, this game won’t be close, as this Cardinals team is complete garbage.

Picks: Seattle -2.5

Atlanta (-2.5) @ Kansas City – Remember last year the week one matchup between the Faclons and Besrs in Chicago? Well, the “sharps” were all over the Falcons in that, so much that the line moved from Bears -1.0 for Falcons -3.0. Well, those crazy “sharps” are back at – all over the Falcons again this year in the opener, in arguable a more difficult place to play, Arrowhead. In five weeks, we will look a back on this game with amazement that Falcons were favored. And that’s more because the Chiefs will be that impressive.

Picks: Kansas City +2.5

Carolina (-2.5) @ Tampa Bay – Have you noticed the pattern here? My first three games are all road favorites of exactly -2.5. In these cases, history tells us that one of those will cover, Seattle, and two will not. . .

Side note – enough is enough, it’s time to stop laughing at the “NFL is my specialty” comment above, focus man, focus!

Picks: Tampa Bay +2.5

Buffalo @ NY Jets (-3.0) – The Bills are getting a little too much love here. Yeah, I like them to win 10 games this season but this line and line movement is disrespectful to the Jets, who were 5 point favorites when the week one lines were released back in August. Look the Jets can still play great defense and they have a secret weapon, the Bills are clueless about the Jets “wildcat” package. This might be is the lock of the week!

Picks: NY Jets -3.0

San Diego @ Oakland (-1.0) – What is there to like about the Charger this season? They look like a mess to me. Their quarterback, Phillip Rivers, was forced to play the final pre-season game because he looked so pathetic in the first three pre-season games. The defense is weak, their receivers are a collection of #2’s (and no I don’t mean turds, though that fits) and their coach is over-matched is just about every game. It seems like they’re depending on an oft-injured Antonio Gates to stay healthy and be the Gates of 2007. That’s pretty risky.

Plus, this Oakland team is for real on offense, at home and hungry!


Pick: Oakland -1.0

The “how many Rams does it take to change a flat tire? Just one, unless it’s a blowout, then they all show up.” picks

Indianapolis @ Chicago (-10.0) – The Bears play the Packers week two on a Thursday night. In other words, they have a short week coming up against their arch-rival and primary competition in the NFC North. Now, I really believe the Bears can go into Lambeau and come away with a win. They’d have the entire offseason to prepare for this game, you have to think they will come up with a few new wrinkles to make Aaron Rodgers uncomfortable, plus the Packers are coming off a physical game with the 49ers on a short week, as well.

You see how I did that? I completely discounted this week’s game against the Colts. Don’t think the Bears aren’t doing the exact same thing.

Pick: Indianapolis +10.0

Philadelphia (-9.5) @ Cleveland – Poor Cleveland! I cannot imagine growing up in a city where perpetual losing is a way of life. There are 9.5 point underdogs, at home on week one! And if you gave the bookies the chance to re-post this line immediately after the final gun, they would post a 13.5. Yeah, it’s going to be that bad.

Pick: Philadelphia -9.5

Washington @ New Orleans (-8.0) – Buyer beware – I hate the Saints, so I cannot make logical decisions with regard to their games. However, even with that I fully expect to hit at least 8 of their games correctly this season. I think New Orleans got their big victory on Friday when some liberal judge ruled in the favor of the Saints players in the bounty-gate case. Therefore, this game is meaningless to them – like “They (Saints) won because Smith and Vilma were able to play.”

Pick: Washington +8.0

Miami @ Houston (-12.5) – I will let you in on a little secret, I bet the Texans at -7.5 way back at the beginning of August. I know what you’re thinking, “where the eff was that inside information, Colin?” There are some things I just have to keep to myself. Look if this game isn’t a 34-7 blowout by the Texans, I will chop off lefty, self stitch my sack and send the teste to the “Center for Research on Abnormally Large Body Parts”. Fair enough?

Pick: Houston -12.5

St. Louis @ Detroit (-8.5) – Am I crazy to think that the Rams actually have a chance in this game? I enter the follow exhibits as to why – 1. The Lions are one dimensional and despite the reality that the Rams have no one that can keep Calvin Johnson from going all “Flipper Anderson v the Saints, circa 1989” on them, I think they find a way to exploit the Lions inability to run the ball; 2. We don’t really know what we have with Sam Bradford, right? I mean this guy was the number one overall pick. He has two years under his belt, meaning the game has to be slowing down for him. He has a coach that wants to and will be able to protect him. Why can’t this guy lead the Rams to an upset?; 3. The lack of a Lions running game means the Rams front four, which believe it or not is a strength, can pin their ears back and attack Stafford; 4, The lions best defender, Ndomakong Suh, is mourning the reality that his mentor and butt buddy, Bo Pelini, is on his out at Nebraska. Don’t get me started!; and 5. Jeff Fisher > Jim Schwartz; remember Schwartz worked under Fisher for quite some time in Tennessee, now it’s time for Obi-Wan to leave Anakin legless in a smoldering pile of lava.

Uh, on second thought, yeah, I am crazy, the Rams have no shot!

Pick: Detroit -8.5

Cincinnati @ Baltimore (-7.0) – I’m down on both teams this season, however, seven points seems a bit too much for a couple of good defensive teams with spotty offenses. Give me the points on Monday night!

Pick: Cincinnati +7.0

The “Toss-up” picks:

New England (-5.5) @ Tennessee – I cannot wait to see Chris Johnson this season, who somehow despite killing a majority of the fantasy teams last season was still highly regarded this season to be taken in the top 10 in most fantasy drafts. My hatred of him is well documented, so it is difficult for me to be objective, but I watched him in the pre-season and I see nothing different from last year. He doesn’t want to get hit, period! He plays a position where one gets hit and hit often, so there is a huge conflict and unless he can find huge chunks of yardage around the end without getting touched he is going to be useless.

As for this game, something tells me the Pats aren’t going to be the Pats for a few weeks.

Pick: Tennessee +5.5

San Francisco @ Green Bay (-5.0) – This will be the first in a series of “payback” games for the 49ers. What’s a 49er “payback” game? A game where the 49ers lose because of either a combination of or one of the following: a. bad turnover; b. missed assignment that leads to a big play; c. a key dropped pass; d. a bad call that goes against the them; e. missed field goal in a big spot; or f. A boneheaded coaching decision that when called out in the post-game causes Harbaugh to blow a gasket and attack the reporter leading to a suspension. Too much went right for that team last season, to not have it turn against them this year.

That aside the 49ers will keep this game close.

Pick: San Francisco +5.0

Jacksonville @ Minnesota (-3.5) – I wish DirecTV would provide subscribers to the NFL Sunday Ticket a count of TV’s tuned to each game. My guess is, if you excluded Minnesota fans and the handful of Jaguars fans, this game might never top out at more than 100. This game won’t be make DirecTV’s “game mix” channel. And even the “Red Zone” channel will likely delay any scoring in this game for maybe a quarter or so – like, “OK, it’s halftime now in Minnesota, but we want to take you back to early first quarter action to show you this score by the Vikings. . . ”

For the pick – it’s simple – the Vikings have some promise, the Jags are garbage.

Pick: Minnesota -3.5

Pittsburgh @ Denver (-1.5) – Dumbest line of the week! Why? Well, the 2011 season ended for the Steelers right there in Denver. Anyone remember what the line was in that game? Steelers by 7.5! So, essentially with everything else being the same, you’re telling me that a 35-year old quarterback, coming off one year layoff due to major neck surgery is worth 9 points? Did I mention that Manning has a fused neck? And one blind-side, whiplash hit could easily un-fuse his neck. I will take the value on Pittsburgh.

Pick: Pittsburgh +1.5

2012 Season Record: 1-0-0

Colin Wynner calls the winners! Good Luck to all!

2012 NFL Season Predictions

The long awaited 2012 NFL season predictions, with one game already in, Colin is pushing the deadline, but no worries fearless fans you can still get down on some of the juicer season wins and future bets.

I follow the “NFL Season Prediction Rules to live by” found here.

Step 1:

Determine the teams with the potential to fall into a +/- 4 victories category. (Greyed cells indicate a team cannot fall into that bucket)

Team

Div

2011 WINS

Plus 4

Minus 4

Team

Div

2011 WINS

Plus 4

Minus 4

Bills AFCE

6

    Bears NFCN

8

   
Dolphins AFCE

6

    Cowboys NFCE

8

   
Jets AFCE

8

    Eagles NFCE

8

   
Patriots AFCE

13

    Giants NFCE

9

   
Bengals AFCN

9

    Lions NFCN

10

   
Browns AFCN

4

    Packers NFCN

15

   
Ravens AFCN

12

    Redskins NFCE

5

   
Steelers AFCN

12

    Vikings NFCN

3

   
Colts AFCS

2

    Buccaneers NFCS

4

   
Jaguars AFCS

5

    Falcons NFCS

10

   
Texans AFCS

10

    Panthers NFCS

6

   
Titans AFCS

9

    Saints NFCS

13

   
Broncos AFCW

8

    49ers NFCW

13

   
Chargers AFCW

8

    Cardinals NFCW

8

   
Chiefs AFCW

7

    Rams NFCW

2

   
Raiders AFCW

8

    Seahawks NFCW

7

   

The above thins the available teams from 64 options to a more reasonable 42. Using the above, we can see that they are eight teams that finished 8-8 last year, so based on that I am going to estimate the number of overall +/- 4 teams will be slightly lower than normal years. The reason, it’s pretty hard to go 4-12 and 12-4, those records seem like the lower and upper boundaries that are difficult to achieve. Now in a year where 6 of those 8 teams were either 7-9 or 9-7, it’s a bit more reasonable to expect 11-5 or 5-11. So, I am settling on 11 teams in this group. And here they are, in order of confidence:

  1. Buffalo – 10-6, up 4 wins; the hype machine is on over-load and I don’t trust their QB, especially late in the year. But the division is easier (NYJ likely down, Dolphins likely horrible), the schedule is easier (NFC West and AFC South) and the defense added a pro bowler in Mario Williams, so you have to figure that the Bills are candidates to post 10 wins and earn a playoff berth.
  2. Indianapolis – 6-10 up 4 wins; Things could not have gone worse last year for the Colts. And just when you thought they were going to screw the entire season by winning their last three, thus avoiding the number 1 overall, they rallied to a resounding defeat in week 17, giving them the rights to Andrew Luck. Imagine the renewed energy Reggie Wayne will have this season; he has to be so thankful to have a moderately competent quarterback that he might put up numbers like it was 2007 again. That should be enough to get the Colts four additional wins.
  3. San Francisco – 8-8, down 5 wins; this is purely based on facts. Fact 1 – the 49ers Pythagorean formula of expected wins last season was a little of 12, so they outperformed their expect by a game. But upon closer examination of their schedule we see they caught the Buccaneers at the beginning of the “mailing it in” tour in a 48-3 win and they also got the Steelers, 20-3, with a very gimpy Big Ben. Normalized those two games and it brings us down to 11 wins. Fact 2 – the 49ers had three ridiculously lucky wins last season, the Eagles, Lions and 2nd Seahawks games. Fact 3 – perhaps the biggest reason I see this taking a step back is the turnover margin from a year ago. Not only the 49ers protect the ball giving up just 10 turnovers, they forced 38 turnovers, for a mind-blowing +28. How much is a turnover worth in points? Well, it obviously varies based upon where the turnover occurs, but in general, turnovers are worth around 4 points. Meaning that if the 49ers post a very nice +12 turnover margin this season, they will lose roughly 64 net points, which translates, in Pythagorean terms, to about 3 wins. Good enough for me!
  4. Kansas City – 11-5, up 4 wins; The Chiefs lost their 2nd best receiver, best defensive player and best offensive player in a three week span, starting with the pre-season finale and ending with the second regular season game. And despite the fact they hated Todd Haley about as much as Red Sox players hate Bobby Valentine and you have to wonder how the Chiefs managed to win 7 games last season. Well, they’re extremely young and talented, that’s how. And as much grief as I have given Romeo Crennel over the years, “clueless, stares at the play-sheet like it’s a menu, deer in the headlights, his dog ate the card listing the times a coach should go for two, etc.”, the last time a former Browns head coach was given a second chance it worked out fairly well. The point? We simply don’t know about Romeo, because all we have to go on is his failure in Cleveland. The moral of the story? Nobody can be held responsible for failing in Cleveland!
  5. Tampa Bay – 8-8, up 4 wins; Honestly, I had to hold back in picking them to win the division with 11 wins. New coach, new Josh Freeman, new receivers, renewed receivers and a focus that generally translates into a positive upswing. The downside? The schedule is rough (NFC East and AFC West), the division is rough, even if the Saints fall back and there are still a ton of questions on defense. But this team won 10 games two years ago. They are closer to that team, than the poster boys for “mailing it in” like last year.
  6. Minnesota – 7-9, up 4 wins; since 1989 they have been 24 teams that won 3 games in a season, the next year 10 of those teams won seven or more games. Yeah, 42% success rate is a recipe to end up on welfare, but consider this subset of three win teams since 2000 – seven of nine have won seven or more games the next year. And one of teams that failed was the Rams, so really it’s like 7/8. Plus, the Vikings started 0-4 last year by a combined 19 points, with each game being decided by a touchdown or less. They also had an excruciating loss to the Broncos, where one of their DBs got red-carded early in the game, forcing the Vikings to play a man down. That had to be the reason they forgot to cover D. Thomas for almost the entire second half, right? So, flip a play or two in those first four, give then the Broncos game and turn one more close loss into a win and viola – a seven win team.
  7. Green Bay – 11-5, down 4 wins; Easy call here. Even coach Mike McCarthy admitted halfway through the 2011 season that the Packers were four plays away from being 4-4 last year, as opposed to 8-0. Let’s add that the Packers have now experienced both ends of capricious nature of the NFL playoffs – in 2010 barely made it in, ran the table; in 2011 dominated the regular season, laid an egg in the playoff opener. Based on their experience last season, my guess is the Pack realize home field advantage is slightly over-rated in the playoffs, and therefore, they will have a few of those games where they’re lackadaisical and flat out bored.
  8. New Orleans – 8-8, down 5 wins; I know my personal bias is getting in the way of making a logical decision on the Saints, but screw it, I hate this Saints team with the white hot intensity of a googol suns. Why? Well, for starters, I am not fond of their, now estranged, head coach Sean Payton. He strikes me as a sissy version of Jim Harbaugh, translation, he invokes the same “I want to plant one right on your kisser” feelings except without the fear that he might fight back. I hate the way the Saints ran up the scores at the end of last season and kept their starters in far too long, just to make sure Brees broke Marino’s passing records. In a similar situation back in 09 with little or nothing to play for, the Saints rested their starters in the final regular season game, last year the Saints kept Brees in virtually the entire game despite the facts that – 1. The 49ers were cruising against the Rams, thus rendering the Saints game meaningless; and 2. The Saints has a comfortable lead late in the game. But they left Brees in to throw, throw, and throw some more. Add in the bounty-gate crap, the reality that the Saints are coached by Gomer Pyle, with Sean Payton out for the year and it feels a lot like it is about to come around on this team. I won’t be a bit surprised if in successive weeks a blitzing safety drives Brees throwing shoulder into the Superdome turf so hard that when Brees gets up it appears as though his arm is attached to his shoulder by a single, thin line of dental floss, then the following Jimmy Graham goes down with an ACL tear and finally Darren Sproles blows out his achilles in week three. “The New Orleans Saints are on the clock. . .”
  9. Chicago – 12-4, up 4 wins; This is where it gets tough. Man, I really wish the Bears didn’t rise up last January 1st, by knocking off the Vikings, thus securing a .500 record. This would have been much more palatable to select the Bears at 11-5, but the “Rules” are the rules and I have to play by them. Look the Bears were 7-3 last season, headed for the playoffs when injuries Forte and Cutler derailed their season. Their defense will be good enough, it always is. But they have significantly upgraded their offense by adding two new toys for Cutler in WR Brandon Marshall and WR Alshon Jeffrey. Plus, I think they sweep the Packers this season. They get them in week two, on a short week and after the Packers play a physical game against the 49ers, the Bears meanwhile have a glorified scrimmage against the Colts in week one. That week two game is the difference in the division!
  10. Detroit – 6-10, down 4 wins; Zero, and I mean zero, running game means that Matthew Stafford and company will have to throw, throw and throw. So what, right? We all know that the NFL has become a passing league, but such a reliance on the passing means the quarterback is vulnerable to injury, as are the receivers. The defense is nothing to get excited about. And the division figures to be better with Chicago and Minnesota improved. And with all that, I still can only slot then in my 10th confidence spot because overall they have more talent than a 6 win team and they also get the worst divisions in each conference as their opponents (NFC West and AFC South). But call it a “Tampa Bay 2011” hunch, I this team catches the wrong end of some breaks early, which leads to the proverbial “circling of the drain” late.
  11. Washington – 9-7 up 4 wins; I love me some of RG III. Isn’t RG III a freakishly great nickname? I mean that just rolls off the tongue, it so natural, hell I wanted to draft him way too high in fantasy just to announce his name. And, yeah, RG III is a rookie, but come on he is certainly better than the bag of diarrhea the ‘Skins were throwing out there last year. I figure they get off to a hot start (4-2) and then play .500 the rest of the way, sneak into the playoffs as the #6 seed and then we all retire after betting against them in the Wildcard round.

Determine 2011 playoff teams that will not return, in order of confidence:

  1. Denver – It doesn’t get much easier than going opposite of the “hype” pick in any given season. Let’s also add the Broncos should’ve been, at best, 6-10 last season and you have the makings for gross under-achievement. Did I mention that the Broncos schedule is brutal the first two months? Odds are 50/50 that Peyton Manning makes it out of that stretch with his neck still fused.
  2. Cincinnati – One very good reason – the Bengals have made the playoffs five times in the last 24 years, the year after they failed to make the playoffs. Head Marvin Lewis has been around for three of those five seasons, meaning Marvin isn’t the perpetual disappointment just when expectations reach anything above the “just don’t embarrass yourself” level.
  3. San Francisco – See above. And throw in this – isn’t Jim Harbaugh due for some bad karma? Think about the piles of crap this guy has left for someone else to clean – whether it’s blatantly running up the score or going all “crazy handshake” on another coach or simply his arrogant approach to his profession. At some point this has to come around, my guess is the stars are aligning for it to come around in a big way this year.
  4. Detroit – See above. And I am much more confident the Lions miss the playoffs than I am that they win 6 or less. So you got that going for you.
  5. New Orleans – See above, but one more thing about the Saints. Their backup quarterback is a known booger eater, yep that’s right Chase Daniel eats boogers. I ask you, football fans, would you trust a team that is one injury away from having a booger eating, butt-plug taking first team snaps at QB? Me neither!
  6. New York Giants – It’s amazing that this team has triumphantly hoisted the Lombardi twice in the past 4 seasons when you consider that they were two plays away from not making the playoffs in either year. The schedule is brutal, the division is brutal and, most importantly, this team won’t be hungry this year. In addition, I get the sense they think they can turn it on whenever they want. This year, as opposed to last year, Romo completes that easy pitch and catch to Miles Austin and viola, the Giants are missing from the 2012 playoffs.

That means the six new teams to the post-season party in 2012 will be: Buffalo, Kansas City, Chicago, Philadelphia, Seattle and Washington.

In summary, I followed the “rules” to the letter on selecting six new playoff teams. I limited the +/- 4 games teams to eleven based on the number of returning 8-8 teams. I selected the Kansas City Chiefs as my “worst to first” team for 2012. And finally, I used 145 as my total of home team wins.

Without further ado, here are Colin’s official 2012 NFL Standings complete with record, division/conference/Super Bowl odds, season win total:

2012 AFC Predictions

AFC East
Colin’s Prediction

sportsbook.com odds

Rank

Team

W

L

Div

Conf

SB

Wins

Ov

Un

1 NewEngland 14 2 (500) 250 700 12.0 100 (120)
2 Buffalo 10 6 600 2,000 5,000 7.5 (200) 170
3 NY Jets 8 8 550 2,000 2,000 8.5 150 (180)
4 Miami 4 12 3,000 5,000 5,000 6.5 120 (140)
AFC North
Colin’s Prediction

sportsbook.com odds

Rank

Team

W

L

Div

Conf

SB

Wins

Ov

Un

1 Pittsburgh 11 5 100 600 1,200 10.0 (145) 125
2 Baltimore 9 7 125 700 1,200 10.0 145 (170)
3 Cincinnati 7 9 450 2,300 4,000 8.0 150 (180)
4 Cleveland 4 12 2,500 5,000 10,000 5.0 100 (120)
AFC South
Colin’s Prediction

sportsbook.com odds

Rank

Team

W

L

Div

Conf

SB

Wins

Ov

Un

1 Houston 10 6 (600) 500 1,200 10.0 (170) 145
2 Tennessee 7 9 500 2,500 5,000 7.5 115 (135)
3 Indianapolis 6 10 1,200 4,500 4,000 5.5 (110) (110)
4 Jacksonville 3 13 1,200 5,000 10,000 6.5 100 (120)
AFC West
Colin’s Prediction

sportsbook.com odds

Rank

Team

W

L

Div

Conf

SB

Wins

Ov

Un

1 Kansas City 11 5 350 2,000 5,000 8.0 140 (160)
2 Oakland 8 8 450 2,000 5,000 7.5 130 (150)
3 San Diego 7 9 200 1,200 1,500 9.0 140 (160)
4 Denver 6 10 125 450 1,000 8.5 (170) 145

A couple interesting notes on the AFC futures

  • The Colts are 45-1 to win the AFC but 40-1 to win the Super Bowl. I think that is a strong indicator that the book has received too many SB bets on the Colts.
  • There is zero value on the AFC West champion – 4.5-1 on the Raiders. The book is clueless when it comes to this division, so they simply bury the odds so they can’t get burnt. That’s easy to do on future bets where you don’t have to offer the opposite side. Think about it if I had to lay -145 that the Broncos won’t win the West, I would drain a retirement account to make that bet.
  • I love the Bills over 7.5 but not at that -200 number way too heavy.

AFC Future Bets:

  • Kansas City Over 8.0 wins – 2.0 units at +140
  • Jacksonville Under 6.5 wins – 3.0 units at -120
  • Miami Under 6.5 wins – 2.0 units at -140
  • New England to win AFC East – 5.0 units at -500

AFC Playoff predictions:

Wildcard RoundBaltimore over Kansas City and Houston over Buffalo

Divisional RoundNew England over Baltimore and Houston over Pittsburgh

AFC ChampionshipNew England over Houston

2012 NFC Predictions

NFC East
Colin’s Prediction

sportsbook.com odds

Rank

Team

W

L

Div

Conf

SB

Wins

Ov

Un

1 Philadelphia 10 6 120 600 1,200 10.0 115 (135)
2 Washington 9 7 1,000 4,000 10,000 6.0 (150) 130
3 NY Giants 8 8 180 700 2,000 9.0 (125) 105
4 Dallas 7 9 200 1,200 2,000 8.5 (185) 155
NFC North
Colin’s Prediction

sportsbook.com odds

Rank

Team

W

L

Div

Conf

SB

Wins

Ov

Un

1 Chicago 12 4 250 700 3,000 9.5 100 (120)
2 Green Bay 11 5 (230) 300 500 11.5 (110) (110)
3 Minnesota 7 9 2,500 5,000 10,000 6.0 100 (120)
4 Detroit 6 10 450 1,200 2,000 9.0 100 (120)
NFC South
Colin’s Prediction

sportsbook.com odds

Rank

Team

W

L

Div

Conf

SB

Wins

Ov

Un

1 Atlanta 10 6 140 1,200 2,000 9.0 (140) 120
2 New Orleans 8 8 120 1,000 600 9.5 (120) 100
3 Tampa Bay 8 8 1000 5,000 10,000 6.0 (130) 110
4 Carolina 7 9 350 2,000 5,000 7.5 (140) 120
NFC West
Colin’s Prediction

sportsbook.com odds

Rank

Team

W

L

Div

Conf

SB

Wins

Ov

Un

1 Seattle 10 6 200 1,800 6,000 7.5 (160) 140
2 San Francisco 8 8 (240) 400 2,000 9.5 (160) 140
3 Arizona 6 10 1,200 5,000 3,000 6.5 100 (120)
4 St. Louis 4 12 1,000 5,000 10,000 6.0 (110) (110)

Interesting notes on the NFC futures

  • The Saints are 6-1 to win the Super Bowl, which is a total joke; again books wouldn’t post crap numbers like this if they had to take it on the other side. Give me -1000 on the Saints not to win the Super Bowl and I will put those pricks out of business.
  • I am shocked that the Cardinals are actually the least likely team to win the NFC West; also shocked that I can’t get better than 2-1 on the Seahawks to win the division. At 5-1, I would hammer them, but 2-1 feels a little bit like I would be better waiting for a couple key games and playing a normal money line bet.
  • The 49ers are sitting at 9.5 wins after opening at 10.5, proving that sometimes, especially when you know what to expect from a team, you have to play it early.
  • The best value on the board in terms of division winner is Tampa Bay, who could very well sneak in and surprise in the South.

NFC Future Bets:

  • Seattle Over 7.5 wins – 3.0 units at -160
  • Detroit Under 9.0 wins – 2.0 units at -120
  • Washington Over 6.0 wins – 3.0 units at -150
  • Chicago Over 9.5 wins – 3.0 units at even
  • Chicago to WIN Super Bowl – .5 unit at +3000

NFC Playoff predictions:

Wildcard Round Philadelphia over Washington and Green Bay over Atlanta

Divisional Round Philadelphia over Seattle and Green Bay over Chicago

NFC ChampionshipGreen Bay over Philadelphia

And Colin Wynner calls the Super Bowl XLVII winner: Green Bay over New England

Enjoy the season!