2011 NFL Week 11 Fantasy Football – Diamonds and Not So Rough

It’s time for Week 11 edition of my Diamonds and Not So Rough column. Looking back at Week 10 it was not a good week for my Diamonds, but a winning week for my Not So Rough players. Only one of my Diamonds hit the 15 point mark which was only good for 20%, while four of My Not So Rough players scored under 20 points which was good for 80%.

Week 10 Diamonds (20% wins):

  • WR Earl Bennett came up just short with 11.1 points against the Lions.
  • RB Pierre Thomas had a totally disappointing game scoring only 4.8 points and handing me another loss.
  • TE Owen Daniels disappeared again and managed only three catches and 6/1 points.
  • WR Jordy Nelson scored twice and his 20.8 points gave me my only winning Diamonds call of the week.
  • RB Willis McGahee was injured on his fourth carry of the game and piled up only 1.7 points ending my week at 1-4 for my Diamonds.

Week 10 Not So Rough (80% wins):

  • WR Marques Colston gave me a scare as a touchdown would have pushed him over 20 points. His 15.3 points made me a winner with this pick.
  • QB Tom Brady destroyed the weak Jets defense and scored 31.36 points handing me my only Not So Rough player loss for the week.
  • RB Fred Jackson was shutdown as I expected and his 12.5 score made me a winner.
  • WR Mike Wallace struggled against the Bengals and his 11.5 points gave me my third winner of the week.
  • WR Dewayne Bowe was shutdown even more than I expected by CB Champ Bailey and Bowe’s 2.7 points made me the easiest of winners.

As a reminder, the scoring system I will use to grade my performance is this:

  • All touchdowns 6 points
  • .04 point per yard passing
  • .1 per yard for rushing/receiving,
  • points per receptions > .25 RB/.50 WR/1.00 all others;
  • -1 per interception
  • -3 for interception return for TDs (also known as pick sixes).

Also to remind the readers for the Diamonds I’m looking for a 60% success ratio and I’m looking for the same 60% for the Not So Rough players. A Diamond must score at least 15 points in the scoring system listed above while a Not So Rough player must score under 20 to be considered a success.

So without further adieu here are my Week 11 picks for Diamonds:

Aaron Hernandez TE New England Patriots

This is the week both Patriots tight ends break loose against the Chiefs defense on Monday night. Hernandez is looking at eight catches 80 yards and a touchdown or 22 points.

Matt Hasselbeck QB Tennessee Titans

The Falcons defense will focus on stopping Titans RB Chris Johnson and Hasselbeck will take advantage of that situation throwing for 250 yards and two touchdowns or 22 points.

Cam Newton QB Carolina Panthers

RookieNewtonstruggled last week against the Titans defense, but this week it’s the Lions secondary. The Panthers will be playing from behind all day andNewtonwill hit 300 total yards and two touchdowns easily smashing the 15 point mark.

Vernon Davis TE San   Francisco 49ers

Yes, the Cardinals struggle to cover the tight end and yes they really struggle to cover All Pro Tight Ends.Daviswill be Alex Smith’s favorite target this week so look for seven catches, 90 yards and one, maybe two touchdowns. 22 points seems to be the theme this week.

Reggie Bush RB Miami Dolphins

Never thought I would utter the words Reggie Bush on this blog space, but after a few good games I have to give him his due. Add in the fact it’s the Bills defense and Reggie scores another touchdown and adds over 100 total yards to break the 15 point barrier.

Now for the Not So Roughs:

Phillip Rivers QB San Diego Chargers

Yes, the Chargers are way out of synch. A matchup on the road with the Bears defense and with several of his offensive linemen missing will do nothing to fix Rivers’ ailments. 200 yards, two touchdowns and three more picks. 17 points is short of the needed 20.

Vincent Jackson WR San Diego Chargers

See Rivers right above for the explanation of why VJ is on this list. VJ will catch five balls for about 80 yards and a score. That equates to only 16.5 points which is under 20.

Roddy White WR Atlanta Falcons

He’ll most likely be playing this game without receiving mate Julio Jones which means more double teams against Roddy. Couple that fact with theTennesseedefense and it’s obvious Roddy is not a good play this week as he scores well under 20 points. Four catches for 40 yards and a touchdown is only 12 points.

DeSean Jackson WR Philadelphia Eagles

Sure he’ll be out to prove something this week after last week’s missed meeting and sitting out the Week 10 game. Problem is twofold, he’ll most likely be without QB Mike Vick and he faces a good Giants defense. Looks for a stat line right about the same as Roddy White above. Oh yes, mix in the fact that WR Jeremy Maclin will probably be out too and this is an easy pick.

DeWayne Bowe WR Kansas City Chiefs

Yes he’s a repeat offender on this list. No, he’s not facing the Broncos defense and Champ Bailey this week and yes the Patriots defense has been burned over and over again this year. Problem for Bowe this week is at quarterback where he will have Tyler Palko throwing to him Monday night.    He’ll improve from last week, but not come anywhere the 20 point mark this week.

2011 NFL Week Six Fantasy Football – Diamonds and Not So Rough

It’s time for Week 6 edition of my
Diamonds and Not So Rough column. Looking back at Week 5 it was not a good week
for my Diamonds, but a great week for my Not So Rough players. Only one of my
Diamonds hit the 15 point mark, while all five of My Not So Rough players
scored under 20 points.

Week 5 Diamonds (20% wins):

  • Willis McGahee a near miss at 14.50 points
  • Greg Olsen only had 11.10 points
  • Mark Sanchez was my only hit at 18.64 points
  • Julio Jones was injured but before the injury only managed 3.8 points
  • Mario Manningham came in at a lowly and disappointing 8.10 points

Week 5 Not So Rough (100% wins):

  • Cedric Benson was held to 5.30 points so that was an easy pick
  • Stevie Johnson only checked in at 5.40 points so another easy winner
  • Maurice Jones-Drew did score a TD but was held to 14.50 points
  • Brandon Lloyd had a great catch but it was his only one as he had 2.50 points
  • Beanie Wells had a TD, but only 12.00 points

As a reminder, the scoring system I will use to grade my performance is this:

  • All touchdowns 6 points
  • .04 point per yard passing
  • .1 per yard for rushing/receiving,
  • points per receptions > .25 RB/.50 WR/1.00 all others;
  • -1 per interception
  • -3 for interception return for TDs (also known as pick sixes).

Also to remind the readers for the Diamonds I’m looking for a 60% success ratio and I’m looking for the same 60% for the Not So Rough players. A Diamond must score at least 15 points in the scoring system listed above while a Not So Rough player must score under 20 to be considered a success.

So without further adieu here are my Week 6 picks for Diamonds:

James Jones WR Green Bay Packers – He had a breakout game last week against the Falcons defense and this week he has the juicy Rams secondary on
the menu to keep it rolling. 6 catches for 120 yards and a TD or 21 points.

Greg Olsen TE Carolina Panthers – Yes I will give him another chance this week against a Falcons secondary that can be torched by a read hot Cam Newton. 5 catches for 90 yards and a TD or 20 points.

Colt McCoy QB Cleveland Browns – Again, I’m not saying to bench Aaron Rodgers for him but if you have BYE week QB blues start him confidently against a weak Raiders secondary. Sure the Raiders will be fired up for the Al Davis home game tribute but it won’t stop McCoy from throwing for 250 yards and 2 TDs or 22 points plus another 30 yards or 3 points for rushing the ball.

Michael Crabtree WR San Francisco 49ers – A name I even despise typing, but he is matched up with the Lions secondary and fellow WR Josh Morgan is on Injured Reserve. The Lions may blow out the 49ers this week meaning Alex Smith may have to throw, throw and throw again. 5 catches, 88 yards and a garbage time TD or 17.30 points.

Shonn Greene RB New York Jets – Greene showed signs of life last weekagainst New England and I look for him to keep it rolling Monday night against the Dolphins defense. I see another 120 total yards, 3 catches and a rushing TD. In our scoring system that breaks down to 18.75 points.

Now for the Not So Roughs:

Brandon Marshall WR Miami Dolphins – People will rate him highly coming off the BYE week but he has two things going against him this week – he faces Revis Island coverage and he has Matt Moore at QB. Here is a quarter, call Steve Smith of
the Panthers and ask him how well his career took off with Matt Moore at QB. 5 catches for 60 yards and no scores or 8.50 points.

Reggie Wayne WR Indianapolis Colts – Wayneis not going to enjoy his matchup with the Bengals secondary this week plus QB Curtis Painter seems to only have eyes for WR Pierre Garcon. 5 catches for 75 yards with no scores or 10.00 points in our scoring system.

Maurice Jones-Drew RB Jacksonville Jaguars – Not it’s not that I don’t like MJD, it’s just that he is matched against an improving Steelers defense. Look for him to post similar numbers to last week. 100 total yards, but this time without the TD. 10 points puts him on this list.

Arian Foster RB Houston Texans – Yes, Foster has bounced back nicely from the hamstring problems but this week it’s the very tough Ravens defense and not the Raiders. I still see Foster rushing for 70 and catching passes for another 30. Adding in a TD gets him close to 20 but with 4 catches he’s in at 17 which is less that our goal of 20 this week.

DeSean Jackson WR Philadelphia Eagles – Jackson had a very nice Week 5 against the Bills, but the Redskins defense is better against the pass than the Bills. DeSean ripped the Redskins apart last year, but not in this game. The Redskins
have had a week to prepare for Jackson and prepared they will be. 4 catches 80 yards and a TD or 16 points.

2011 NFL Week Five Fantasy – Diamonds and Not So Rough

Welcome to Week 5 of the fantasy and NFL season and the debut of my “Diamonds and Not So Rough” column. This column will focus on five players that are highly rated that I see with the probability of high scoring weeks and five players that are rated highly that in my mind will disappear this week and disappoint their owners.  These opinions are just that opinions and I’m certainly not recommending that if I happen to be down on Ray Rice for a week that you bench him and play Chester Taylor in his place (sorry Chester but you were washed up at least two years ago). Place kickers and defensive players will not be discussed in this column on a weekly basis.

The scoring system I will use to grade my performance is this:

  • All touchdowns 6 points
  • .04 point per yard passing
  • .1 per yard for rushing/receiving,
  • points per receptions > .25 RB/.50 WR/1.00 all others;
  • -1 per interception
  • -3 for interception return for TDs (also known as pick sixes).

Diamonds: I’m looking for a 60% success ratio and I’m looking for the same 60% for the Not So Rough players. A Diamond must score at least 15 points in the scoring system listed above while a Not So Rough player must score under 20 to be considered a success.

So without further adieu here are this week’s picks for Diamonds:

Willis McGahee RB Denver Broncos.

Willis is now the #1 running back in Denver, but a somewhat healthy Knowshown Moreno is lurking in the background. This week he faces the San Diego Chargers at home. The Chargers have the 5th best pass defense and the 12th ranked rush defense in the NFL. Denver has to rely a little more on their running game as putting the ball in Kyle Orton’s hands too much is proving to be their downfall. The Chargers may have their way with the Broncos but the good news is Willis can catch. Willis should crack my goal of 15 points this week with 80 yards rushing, 30 yards receiving and my bold call – a short TD pass from Tim Tebow!

Greg Olsen TE Carolina Panthers.

We all know the Saints pass defense is not very good and Panthers QB Cam Newton has established a fine chemistry with Olsen. I’ve seen at least one of his touchdowns and a few other nice catches called back on penalties. Couple his matchup, plus the face I traded him this week and Olsen is looking at a 6 catch, 100 yard receiving and 1 TD game. That’s good for 22 points in our scoring system.

Mark Sanchez QB New York Jets

Coming off a negative week in most scoring systems along with Rex Ryan’s assertion that the team will be more “ground n’ pound” makes this prediction a scary proposition.  The good news is Sanchez gets to play the Patriots horrific pass defense. 280 yards along with 2 TDs and 2 INTs make this a 21 point day for Mr. Sanchez.

Julio Jones WR Atlanta Falcons

Tune in to NBC to watch the rookie breakout game for Falcons #2 WR rookie Julio Jones. The Green Bay pass defense is struggling andAtlantais out for a little revenge after last season’s playoff whipping. My Diamond prediction for Jones is 8 catches, 125 yards and 2 TDs or close to 28 points.

Mario Manningham WR New York Giants

Mario was projected as a top wide receiver heading into the season and he’s been nothing short of disappointing so far. That will all change this week againstSeattle. They have a decent pass defense but they won’t stop Super Mario this week. 100+ yards, 6 catches and a TD are looking like conservative projections this week.

Now for the Not So Roughs:

Cedric Benson RB Cincinnati Bengals

He has a suspension looming, but something tells me it’s taking so long he will avoid the suspension. So while some will see this as his farewell for three weeks game, I just see it as another disappointing game in what’s become a pretty disappointing career.Jacksonvillecan stop the run and they will this week too. No TDs and 75 total yards for “Ced.”

Stevie Johnson WR Buffalo Bills

 

Nnamdi orAsante, pick your poison this week, Stevie. The “Dream Team” is struggling and they face pretty close to a “must win” this week. I think the Bills play them tough and beat them but RB Fred Jackson, not the passing game leads the way. Stevie will probably find the end zone for one TD but 4 catches and 60 yards receiving keep him under my goal of 20 points.

Maurice Jones-Drew RB Jacksonville Jaguars

The Bengals defense does not get a lot of respect, but they have played the run pretty good so far this year. MJD faces a bigger challenge then he’s probably expecting this week. He probably needs a lot of catches this week to exceed the 20 point barrier. I don’t see him doing that. One TD and less than 100 total yards won’t get him to 20 points.

Brandon Lloyd WR Denver Broncos

Lloyd faces a tough matchup with the Chargers 5th ranked pass defense. His QB is struggling and Lloyd has not come close to approaching last year’s numbers. In some ways WR Eric Decker has taken over as the #1 wide receiver inDenver. Lloyd will have some catches this week but he’ll be under 100 yards again and not in the end zone. Anyway you slice it it’s less than 20 points.

Chris “Beanie” Wells RB Arizona Cardinals

Coming off last week’s three TD game he’s rated high on most people’s list this week. This week he faces two challenges, one the hamstring is still not 100% and the Vikings staunch run defense. I see Beanie scoring a TD this week, but that coupled with less than 100 total yards does not equal 20 points so he’s a Not So Rough this week.