2011 NFL Week 11 Fantasy Football – Diamonds and Not So Rough

It’s time for Week 11 edition of my Diamonds and Not So Rough column. Looking back at Week 10 it was not a good week for my Diamonds, but a winning week for my Not So Rough players. Only one of my Diamonds hit the 15 point mark which was only good for 20%, while four of My Not So Rough players scored under 20 points which was good for 80%.

Week 10 Diamonds (20% wins):

  • WR Earl Bennett came up just short with 11.1 points against the Lions.
  • RB Pierre Thomas had a totally disappointing game scoring only 4.8 points and handing me another loss.
  • TE Owen Daniels disappeared again and managed only three catches and 6/1 points.
  • WR Jordy Nelson scored twice and his 20.8 points gave me my only winning Diamonds call of the week.
  • RB Willis McGahee was injured on his fourth carry of the game and piled up only 1.7 points ending my week at 1-4 for my Diamonds.

Week 10 Not So Rough (80% wins):

  • WR Marques Colston gave me a scare as a touchdown would have pushed him over 20 points. His 15.3 points made me a winner with this pick.
  • QB Tom Brady destroyed the weak Jets defense and scored 31.36 points handing me my only Not So Rough player loss for the week.
  • RB Fred Jackson was shutdown as I expected and his 12.5 score made me a winner.
  • WR Mike Wallace struggled against the Bengals and his 11.5 points gave me my third winner of the week.
  • WR Dewayne Bowe was shutdown even more than I expected by CB Champ Bailey and Bowe’s 2.7 points made me the easiest of winners.

As a reminder, the scoring system I will use to grade my performance is this:

  • All touchdowns 6 points
  • .04 point per yard passing
  • .1 per yard for rushing/receiving,
  • points per receptions > .25 RB/.50 WR/1.00 all others;
  • -1 per interception
  • -3 for interception return for TDs (also known as pick sixes).

Also to remind the readers for the Diamonds I’m looking for a 60% success ratio and I’m looking for the same 60% for the Not So Rough players. A Diamond must score at least 15 points in the scoring system listed above while a Not So Rough player must score under 20 to be considered a success.

So without further adieu here are my Week 11 picks for Diamonds:

Aaron Hernandez TE New England Patriots

This is the week both Patriots tight ends break loose against the Chiefs defense on Monday night. Hernandez is looking at eight catches 80 yards and a touchdown or 22 points.

Matt Hasselbeck QB Tennessee Titans

The Falcons defense will focus on stopping Titans RB Chris Johnson and Hasselbeck will take advantage of that situation throwing for 250 yards and two touchdowns or 22 points.

Cam Newton QB Carolina Panthers

RookieNewtonstruggled last week against the Titans defense, but this week it’s the Lions secondary. The Panthers will be playing from behind all day andNewtonwill hit 300 total yards and two touchdowns easily smashing the 15 point mark.

Vernon Davis TE San   Francisco 49ers

Yes, the Cardinals struggle to cover the tight end and yes they really struggle to cover All Pro Tight Ends.Daviswill be Alex Smith’s favorite target this week so look for seven catches, 90 yards and one, maybe two touchdowns. 22 points seems to be the theme this week.

Reggie Bush RB Miami Dolphins

Never thought I would utter the words Reggie Bush on this blog space, but after a few good games I have to give him his due. Add in the fact it’s the Bills defense and Reggie scores another touchdown and adds over 100 total yards to break the 15 point barrier.

Now for the Not So Roughs:

Phillip Rivers QB San Diego Chargers

Yes, the Chargers are way out of synch. A matchup on the road with the Bears defense and with several of his offensive linemen missing will do nothing to fix Rivers’ ailments. 200 yards, two touchdowns and three more picks. 17 points is short of the needed 20.

Vincent Jackson WR San Diego Chargers

See Rivers right above for the explanation of why VJ is on this list. VJ will catch five balls for about 80 yards and a score. That equates to only 16.5 points which is under 20.

Roddy White WR Atlanta Falcons

He’ll most likely be playing this game without receiving mate Julio Jones which means more double teams against Roddy. Couple that fact with theTennesseedefense and it’s obvious Roddy is not a good play this week as he scores well under 20 points. Four catches for 40 yards and a touchdown is only 12 points.

DeSean Jackson WR Philadelphia Eagles

Sure he’ll be out to prove something this week after last week’s missed meeting and sitting out the Week 10 game. Problem is twofold, he’ll most likely be without QB Mike Vick and he faces a good Giants defense. Looks for a stat line right about the same as Roddy White above. Oh yes, mix in the fact that WR Jeremy Maclin will probably be out too and this is an easy pick.

DeWayne Bowe WR Kansas City Chiefs

Yes he’s a repeat offender on this list. No, he’s not facing the Broncos defense and Champ Bailey this week and yes the Patriots defense has been burned over and over again this year. Problem for Bowe this week is at quarterback where he will have Tyler Palko throwing to him Monday night.    He’ll improve from last week, but not come anywhere the 20 point mark this week.

2011 NFL Week Ten Fantasy Football – Diamonds and Not So Rough

It’s time for Week 10 edition of my Diamonds and Not So Rough column. Looking back at Week 9 it was not a good week for my Diamonds, but a winning week for my Not So Rough players. Two of my Diamonds hit the 15 point mark which was only good for 40%, while four of My Not So Rough players scored under 20 points which was good for 80%.

Week 9 Diamonds (40% wins):

  • Eli Manning rallied late against the Patriots and wound up with 22.10 points.
  • Shonn Greene struggled most of his game and wound up with only 7.6 points.
  • Brent Celek came close Monday night, but his 13.00 points made me a loser.
  • I expected Beanie Wells to run wild against the Rams but 3.8 points left me as a
    big loser on this pick.
  • Jake Ballard was able to get me to 40% winners with his late touchdown grab against
    the Patriots that had him scoring a total of 16.7 points.

Week 9 Not So Rough (80% wins):

  • I was fairly close on Anquan Boldin’s stats and his 12.30 points gave me an easy
    win.
  • Plaxico Burress returned to earth with only 10.4 points giving me another easy win.
  • Vincent Jackson went crazy on Week 9 and his 35.6 points gave me my only Not So Rough
    loss of the week.
  • Steve Johnson struggled with the Jets as I expected and his 8.8 points made me an
    easy winner.
  • Michael Bush came very, very close to handing me another loss, but in any mathematical
    system 19.4 points is still less than our 20 point target.

As a reminder, the scoring system I will use to grade my performance is this:

  • All touchdowns 6 points
  • .04 point per yard passing
  • .1 per yard for rushing/receiving,
  • points per receptions > .25 RB/.50 WR/1.00 all others;
  • -1 per interception
  • -3 for interception return for TDs (also known as pick sixes).

Also to remind the readers for the Diamonds I’m looking for a 60% success ratio and I’m looking for the same 60% for the Not So Rough players. A Diamond must score at least 15 points in the scoring system listed above while a Not So Rough player must score under 20 to be considered a success. This week there are no bye weeks for the first time since Week 4.

So without further adieu here are my Week 10 picks for Diamonds:

Earl Bennett WR Chicago Bears

Normally I don’t like to jump on the “flavor of the week” but Bennett has two major things going for him this week: chemistry with his quarterback and a matchup with the Lions secondary. Look for Bennett to post 6 catches, 85 yards and a touchdown which adds up to 17.5 points.

Pierre Thomas RB New Orleans Saints

Yes Mark Ingram is expected back this week, but at the same time Thomas’ other vulture, Christopher Ivory may sit out. Atlanta is tough to run on, but Thomas can be involved in the passing game too. 110 total yards, a touchdown and 6 catches equals 20 points for Thomas and a win for me.

Owen Daniels TE Houston Texans

Most of us thought with WR Andre Johnson out Daniels would explode but he has not. A matchup with a Buccaneers that can’t cover tight ends will change that this week. 8 catches 100 yards and a touchdown gives Daniels 24 points.

Jordy Nelson WR Green Bay Packers

It’s certainly hard to take a Packers wide receiver with all the weapons at QB Aaron Rodgers’ disposal, but a matchup Monday night against a weak Vikings secondary is just what the doctor ordered.
4 catches, two touchdowns (one long, one short) and 105 yards give Nelson 24.5 points.

Willis McGahee RB Denver Broncos

Very strong game for McGahee on his return last week and there is no reason for me to think a matchup against the Chiefs defense will stop him from rolling this week. Willis will pile on another 100 yards this week and with another end zone visit he winds up with 16 points.

Now for the Not So Roughs:

Marques Colston WR New Orleans Saints

Another QB, Drew Brees, with a lot of weapons. Lance Moore may sit which could add to Colston’s stats but regardless I think he gets held down this week in Atlanta. Six catches for 80 yards as his 11 points fall well below my 20 point winning target.

Tom Brady QB New England Patriots

Hard to put a player of Brady’s stature on this list, but I think his struggles continue this week against the Revis led Jets. He will still manage 225 yards, and two touchdowns, but he’ll toss a pair of interceptions. 19 points is a good game, but not quite the 20 he needs to beat me.

Fred Jackson RB Buffalo Bills

Another name that’s hard to put on this list, but his matchup with the Cowboys will certainly be a challenging one. 140 total yards with 4 catches is only 15 points and not enough to top the magic 20 point barrier.

Mike Wallace WR Pittsburgh Steelers

Another tough name to add to this list, but the Bengals secondary plays solid cover defense. Despite his well known speed, Wallace will struggle to put up numbers this week. He’ll score a touchdown, but six catches for 75 yards is only 16.5 points.

DeWayne Bowe WR Kansas City Chiefs

He’s getting old, but he can still cover as Bowe will find out this week when he’s matched up against CB Champ Bailey of the Broncos. Four catches for 60 yards and a touchdown is only 14 points and another win for me.

2011 NFL Week Nine Fantasy Football – Diamonds and Not So Rough

Week 9 of the Diamonds and Not So Rough column is here. I finally had a winning week
on both sides of the equation in Week 8. It was nice to see some high scoring
scores from my Diamonds for a change.

Week 8 Recap:

Week 8 Diamonds (60% wins):

  • Antonio Brown of the Steelers had one touchdown and nine catches for 67 yards or a
    total of 17.20 points to eclipse the 15 point mark.
  • Fred Davis waited until the final meaningless Redskins drive to get busy but he broke
    the 15 point mark with eight catches, 94 yards or 17.40 points.
  • Tim Tebow looked horrible again and barely eclipsed the 15 point mark, but a winner
    is a winner and Tebow’s 15.18 points made me a winner.
  • Ryan Mathews of the Chargers came close with 12.70 points and a third quarter
    groin injury cost him most of the fourth quarter and overtime. He was
    under 15 points so a loss for me.
  • Jeremy Maclin had an early touchdown, but at the end of the day his three catches
    for 54 yards only equaled 12.90 points handing me another loss.

Week8 Not So Rough (80% wins):

  • Ryan Torain pitched in with another pathetic effort with 14 yards rushing and one
    catch for six yards. At the end of the day his 2.25 points made me the
    easiest of winner.
  • Bernard Scott filled in for the suspended Cedrick Benson and put up numbers close
    to Benson’s average. 76 yards rushing and three catches or a total of 8.35
    points.
  • QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was my only loss even though I came extremely close on
    predicting his weekly stats. 262 passing yards, one interception and two
    passing touchdowns resulted in 21.88 points or a loss for me.
  • TE Jimmy Graham and the hapless Week 8 Saints made me the easiest of winners.
    Graham only had four catches for 39 yards and zero touchdowns. In our
    rules that only equals 7.90 points.
  • TE Vernon Davis also made me an easy winner as he only had three catches for 27
    yards or 5.70 points.

As a reminder, the scoring system I will use to grade my performance is this:

  • Alltouchdowns 6 points
  • .04 point per yard passing
  • .1 per yard for rushing/receiving,
  • points per receptions > .25 RB/.50 WR/1.00 all others;
  • -1 per interception
  • -3 for interception return for TDs (also known as pick sixes).

Also to remind the readers for the Diamonds I’m looking for a 60% success ratio and
I’m looking for the same 60% for the Not So Rough players. A Diamond must score
at least 15 points in the scoring system listed above while a Not So Rough
player must score under 20 to be considered a success.

Now it’s time to look at the Week 9 Diamonds:

Shonn Greene RB New York Jets – Greene gets a Week 9 matchup with the Bills run
defense. Although they are a little tougher at home, they still struggle to
stop the run. Greene always appears to be on the verge of a breakout week and I
think is the week. 135 total yards and a touchdown equals 20 points when you
add in a few catches.

Brent Celek TE Philadelphia Eagles – Celek has become a favorite target of QB
Mike Vick and although he’s a little banged up I look for Celek to have another
nice game against the Bears this week. The Bears struggles covering the tight
end will show up this week and Celek will grab 6 catches for 75 yards and a
touchdown which will equal 19.75 points.

Beanie Wells RB Arizona Cardinals – Beanie is another player that is out on
the field not at 100%. Thanks to a matchup with the Rams defense it won’t
matter. Beanie will shred the Rams defense for 120 total yards and two
touchdowns for a total of 24 points.

Jake Ballard TE New York Giants – Ballard draws
the weak New England secondary this week and it will do nothing but help him.
Heath Miller of the Steelers was on target for 40 catches in one game last week
as the Patriots allowed him four catches in the first two minutes of the game.
Ballard goes for 6 catches, 66 yards and one touchdown for a total of 18.6
points.

Eli Manning QB New York Giants – Again all about the matchups and Eli
draws the weak Patriots secondary. 300 yards passing and two touchdowns are not
out of the question. Mix in the requisite two interceptions and Eli still
scores 22 points.

Now for the Not So Roughs:

Anquan Boldin WR Baltimore Ravens – Everyone is jumping on the Boldin bandwagon
after last week’s game, but sadly for him he only gets to play the Cardinals
secondary once this year and that was last week. Although the Steelers defense
is not what it used to be it’s still much better than the Cardinals. A more
pedestrian 6 for 80 or 11 points for Boldin this week.

Plaxico Burress WR New York Jets – Another bandwagon player who put up three touchdowns
in Week 7 before his BYE. This week the Jets really focus on the run and Plax
returns to fantasy bench land. Five catches for 45 yards with a short touchdown
as he ends the week with 13 points.

Michael Bush RB Oakland Raiders – Okay a lot of owners have added him to either fill
in for Darren McFadden or to take advantage of owners who failed to handcuff
McFadden properly (me included). Well after a 99 yard day with a touchdown
owners like me won’t feel so bad. Tawain Jones steals the show this week and
Bush only has 15.9 points.

Stevie Johnson WR Buffalo Bills – Hello Stevie, it’s your turn to visit Revis Island.
The quick Johnson will give it his best, but three catches for 40 yards and
5.50 will not be enough to make his owners happy.

Vincent Jackson WR San Diego Chargers – Yes he makes
the list again this week. Him and quarterback Phillip Rivers seem out of synch
and a matchup with Charles Woodson of the Packers is probably not the fix the
doctor ordered. I can see him grabbing a touchdown this week, but five catches
and 70 yards may be the extent of his production. 15.5 points falls under the
magic 20 mark.

 

2011 NFL Week Eight Fantasy Football – Diamonds and Not So Rough

It’s time for Week 8 edition of my Diamonds and Not So Rough column. Looking back at Week 7 it was not a good week for my Diamonds, but a great week for my Not So Rough players. None of my Diamonds hit the 15 point mark, while all five of My Not So Rough players scored under 20 points.

Week 7 Diamonds (00% wins) (2 for 15 since I started):

  • Greg Little checked in with 5 catches but for only 31 yards or 5.6 points.
  • Antonio Brown came close with 13.70 points with 7 catches for 102 yards.
  • Curtis Painter was so horrible I won’t even mention his score. Losing 62-7 does that to you.
  • Brandon Marshall did better against Revis than this week as he only had 9.10 points.
  • Kellen Winslow had 1 TD, but only 25 yards on 4 catches or 12.50 points.

Week 7 Not So Rough (100% wins) (15 for 15 since I started).

  • Jason Witten did score 14.50 points but that’s not 20 so a win for me.
  • Shonn Greene recorded only 11.95 points well under the needed 20.
  • Matt Ryan’s numbers were almost exactly what I predicted and his 18.92 points were not enough to topple the magic 20 points.
  • Chris Johnson made this predicting stuff look easy as his 6 points were well under the needed 20.
  • I warned of a Revis Island trip and it worked out even better than I thought. 1 catch for 15 yards or 2 points. Winner, winner chicken dinner.

As a reminder, the scoring system I will use to grade my performance is this:

  • All touchdowns 6 points
  • .04 point per yard passing
  • .1 per yard for rushing/receiving,
  • points per receptions > .25 RB/.50 WR/1.00 all others;
  • -1 per interception
  • -3 for interception return for TDs (also known as pick sixes).

 

Also to remind the readers for the Diamonds I’m looking for a 60% success ratio and I’m looking for the same 60% for the Not So Rough players. A Diamond must score at least 15 points in the scoring system listed above while a Not So Rough player must score under 20 to be considered a success.

So without further adieu here are my Week 8 picks for Diamonds:

Antonio Brown WR Pittsburgh Steelers

Last week we saw what this kid is capable of as the changing of the old guard (Hines Ward) to the new guard (Brown) began. Toss in a questionable status for Ward and a matchup with the porous Patriots secondary and that is point scoring music to my ears. He should match last week’s production with a TD mixed in for 19.70 points.

Fred Davis TE Washington Redskins

Three major facts work inDavis’ favor this week, his matchup with a weak Bills secondary, the fact his main nemesis Chris Cooley is now and IR and third WR Santana Moss is out with a broken hand. That leaves Davis and WR Jabar Gaffney as QB John Beck’s primary targets.Davisshould score and add 8 catches for 90 yards or 23 points for the week.

Tim Tebow QB Denver Broncos

With some our favorite fantasy QBs on bye this week, Tebow makes a good start against a Lions defense that is struggling and playing on the road. Sure Tebow will be sacked 5 or 6 times and he’ll make 15 bad throws and sure he’s not a pure NFL QB yet. As fantasy owners all we care about is stats and at the end of the day he’ll pass for 200, rush for 50 more and have 2 total TDs, Minus 2 interceptions for him still equals 23 points for him this week.

Jeremy Maclin WR Philadelphia Eagles

The Dallas defense plays better at home than on the road and this week they travel toPhiladelphiafor the Sunday night contest. I believe the Cowboys defense will focus on DeSean Jackson leaving Maclin to be QB Mike Vick’s favorite target this week. 6 catches, 102 yards and a TD equals 19.2 points this week.

Ryan Mathews RB San Diego Chargers

The Monday night spotlight will shine on last season’s most disappointing rookie and one of this year’s major surprises RB Ryan Mathews. He has a road matchup with the Chiefs defense that ranks 25th against the run. Mathews will do his damage on the ground and on passes. 150 total yards and a TD nets him 22 points as I’ll include 4 catches.

Now for the Not So Roughs:

Ryan Torain RB Washington Redskins

All week you will hear that Torain is a strong play given the year ending injuring to RB Tim Hightower, but don’t buy into the hype. First off it’s a Mike Shanahan running back and secondly it’s not a great match up with a Bills defense that plays better at home. Torain should crack the 80 yard mark with a TD, but that only equals 14 points.

Bernard Scott RB Cincinnati Bengals

With Cedrick Benson suspended for the week, Scott is everyone’s hot waiver pickup. Seattle’s run defense has been a lot better than expected (11th overall) and this week will be no different. Scott will be held to 60 total yards and a TD. 12 points keeps him below my 20 point target.

Ryan Fitzpatrick QB Buffalo Bills

Fitzpatrick is at home against the Washington Redskins, but the bad news is the Redskins are ranked 11th in pass defense. Fitzpatrick’s last two games have not been great and the trend will continue this week. 225 yards passing, 1 TD and 2 INTs equals 13 points this week.

Jimmy Graham TE New Orleans Saints

Graham has been the #1 TE in scoring so far and although the Rams defense is nothing to write home about, they do cover the TE well. Graham has already been facing extra coverage against him and when QB Drew Brees sees that this weekend he’ll look to spread the ball around more to his WRs and RBs Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas. Graham still scores but 4 catches for 65 yards and a TD only equals 16.5 points which is below our magic 20 point barrier.

Vernon Davis TE San Francisco 49ers

Here is an interesting fact, his opponent this week the Cleveland Browns are 2nd in pass defense, but they are the 9th worst against the TE. That would normally be a good matchup to exploit, but I see the 49ers running the ball well andDavis not being able to take advantage of the Browns defense. 5 catches for 75 yards or 12.5 points.

2011 NFL Week Seven Fantasy Football – Diamonds and Not So Rough

Now it’s time to move on to lucky Week 7 of the Diamonds and Not So Rough column. Once again I struggled with my Diamonds in Week 6 as only one of my
picks hit the 15 point mark, while once again all five of My Not So Rough players
scored under 20 points.

Week 5 Diamonds (20% wins):

  • James Jones had the TD catch I expected, but on his only catch of the game. He totaled just 10 points.
  • Greg Olsen five catches, 42 yards and a paltry 9.2 points.
  • Colt McCoy was my only hit at 22.20 and his stats were awfully close to what I predicted.
  • Michael Crabtree 9 catches for 77 yards and a TD away from making me a winner. 12.20 points was not quite enough.
  • Shonn Greene pitiful Monday night performance resulted in 7.95 points.

Week 5 Not So Rough (100% wins):

  • Brandon Marshall I said 5 for 60 and he wound up with 6 catches for 109 yards. Take out his fluke 46 yard catch and I’m pretty much right on the mark. Either way his 13.90 points made me a winner.
  • Reggie Wayne Predicted 5 for 75 and he was even worse and 5 for 58 for 8.30 points. An easy winner this week.
  • Maurice Jones-Drew I predicted 100 total yards and no TDs or 10 points. He checked in with 104 total yards and no TDs. Add in 2 catches and he had a pedestrian 10.90 points.
  • Arian Foster was even worse than I expected with 49 rushing yards and 52 receiving yards on 6 catches. No TDs led to a 11.60 week and a win for me.
  • DeSean Jackson 3 catches for 46 yards underwhelmed all of us as he was even under my lowly prediction of 4 catches for 80 yards and a TD.

As a reminder, the scoring system I will use to grade my performance is this:

  • All touchdowns 6 points
  • .04 point per yard passing
  • .1 per yard for rushing/receiving,
  • points per receptions > .25 RB/.50 WR/1.00 all others;
  • -1 per interception
  • -3 for interception return for TDs (also known as pick sixes).

Also to remind the readers for the Diamonds I’m looking for a 60% success ratio and I’m looking for the same 60% for the Not So Rough players. A Diamond must score at least 15 points in the scoring system listed above while a Not So Rough player must score under 20 to be considered a success.

Now it’s time to look at the Week 7 Diamonds:

Greg Little WR Cleveland – Breakout week coming against Seattle this week. Little had a good game against Oakland even with his stumbling out of bounds at the ½ inch line after making a wide open catch. No worries this week as he does scores a TD and adds 8 catches for 100 yards or 20 points.

Antonio Brown WR Pittsburgh – I know I’ve been touting this guy since last year, but you know what? He finally gets his dream matchup against the Arizona Cardinals secondary. He’ll have 2 long grabs with one going for a TD. 4 catches 130 yards and a score. 21 points is on the agenda for the week.

Curtis Painter QB Indianapolis – My reason for liking Painter this week is simple, I’m feeling a blowout in the Bayou and a lot of throws from Painter. 300 yards, 2 TDs and a couple of INTs are in store for Painter this week. 22 points from him and I’ll be a winner.

Brandon Marshall WR Miami – I’m flipping my perspective on Marshall this week for two reasons despite the fact that Matt Moore remains the QB. I know he’ll see a lot of Champ Bailey, but I still like the matchup and he’s playing against the team that traded him. Similar stat line to last week but add in a TD. 6 catches for 101 yards and a TD which is good enough for 19.1 points.

Kellen Winslow TE Tampa Bay – I’m looking for the silent Soldier to light up the Bears defense this week for 5 catches, 88 yards and 2 TDs. 25.8 points makes me a winner this week with Jr.

Now for the Not So Roughs:

Jason Witten TE Dallas – Usually I ignore points allowed by position stats but I watched the Rams totally shut down Finley of the Packers last week and the Ravens shut down Daniels of the Texans. So what you say? Well those two teams were 1 and 2 in points allowed to TEs. So this week I’ll buy into that theory and give Witten 4 catches for 60 yards and a TD. That 16 point performance makes me a winner.

Shonn Greene RB New York Jets – Another reversal on my part, this time to the underperforming side. The Chargers are good against the run and LT is lurking to beat up on his old team. Greene may smell paydirt, but even with a TD he will be lucky to break 15 points at best.

Matt Ryan QB Atlanta – The Falcons will take a lesson from the 49ers and realize the best way to beat the Lions is on the ground (see Frank Gore Week 6). They will also take a lesson from themselves and see they play better when the run first, pass second. Ryan will have his moments this week but it will add up to 250 yards, 2 TD and 3 INTs. That’s only 19 points in our scoring system.

Chris Johnson RB Tennessee – Many are expecting CJ2K to break out against the Texans defense, especially since he had the BYE week to get himself right. Not this week my faithful readers, as CJ2K becomes CJL (L being Roman for 50). 50 yards rushing, 50 yards receiving (including a long TD reception) bring CJ in 18 points (with his catches).

Vincent Jackson WR San Diego – Good Afternoon Vincent, welcome to the Tropical Island called Revis Island. Please enjoy your stay and your 3 catches for 60 yards and a TD. Those 13.5 points will be nice, but also low enough to make me a winner with you this week.

 

2011 NFL Week Six Fantasy Football – Diamonds and Not So Rough

It’s time for Week 6 edition of my
Diamonds and Not So Rough column. Looking back at Week 5 it was not a good week
for my Diamonds, but a great week for my Not So Rough players. Only one of my
Diamonds hit the 15 point mark, while all five of My Not So Rough players
scored under 20 points.

Week 5 Diamonds (20% wins):

  • Willis McGahee a near miss at 14.50 points
  • Greg Olsen only had 11.10 points
  • Mark Sanchez was my only hit at 18.64 points
  • Julio Jones was injured but before the injury only managed 3.8 points
  • Mario Manningham came in at a lowly and disappointing 8.10 points

Week 5 Not So Rough (100% wins):

  • Cedric Benson was held to 5.30 points so that was an easy pick
  • Stevie Johnson only checked in at 5.40 points so another easy winner
  • Maurice Jones-Drew did score a TD but was held to 14.50 points
  • Brandon Lloyd had a great catch but it was his only one as he had 2.50 points
  • Beanie Wells had a TD, but only 12.00 points

As a reminder, the scoring system I will use to grade my performance is this:

  • All touchdowns 6 points
  • .04 point per yard passing
  • .1 per yard for rushing/receiving,
  • points per receptions > .25 RB/.50 WR/1.00 all others;
  • -1 per interception
  • -3 for interception return for TDs (also known as pick sixes).

Also to remind the readers for the Diamonds I’m looking for a 60% success ratio and I’m looking for the same 60% for the Not So Rough players. A Diamond must score at least 15 points in the scoring system listed above while a Not So Rough player must score under 20 to be considered a success.

So without further adieu here are my Week 6 picks for Diamonds:

James Jones WR Green Bay Packers – He had a breakout game last week against the Falcons defense and this week he has the juicy Rams secondary on
the menu to keep it rolling. 6 catches for 120 yards and a TD or 21 points.

Greg Olsen TE Carolina Panthers – Yes I will give him another chance this week against a Falcons secondary that can be torched by a read hot Cam Newton. 5 catches for 90 yards and a TD or 20 points.

Colt McCoy QB Cleveland Browns – Again, I’m not saying to bench Aaron Rodgers for him but if you have BYE week QB blues start him confidently against a weak Raiders secondary. Sure the Raiders will be fired up for the Al Davis home game tribute but it won’t stop McCoy from throwing for 250 yards and 2 TDs or 22 points plus another 30 yards or 3 points for rushing the ball.

Michael Crabtree WR San Francisco 49ers – A name I even despise typing, but he is matched up with the Lions secondary and fellow WR Josh Morgan is on Injured Reserve. The Lions may blow out the 49ers this week meaning Alex Smith may have to throw, throw and throw again. 5 catches, 88 yards and a garbage time TD or 17.30 points.

Shonn Greene RB New York Jets – Greene showed signs of life last weekagainst New England and I look for him to keep it rolling Monday night against the Dolphins defense. I see another 120 total yards, 3 catches and a rushing TD. In our scoring system that breaks down to 18.75 points.

Now for the Not So Roughs:

Brandon Marshall WR Miami Dolphins – People will rate him highly coming off the BYE week but he has two things going against him this week – he faces Revis Island coverage and he has Matt Moore at QB. Here is a quarter, call Steve Smith of
the Panthers and ask him how well his career took off with Matt Moore at QB. 5 catches for 60 yards and no scores or 8.50 points.

Reggie Wayne WR Indianapolis Colts – Wayneis not going to enjoy his matchup with the Bengals secondary this week plus QB Curtis Painter seems to only have eyes for WR Pierre Garcon. 5 catches for 75 yards with no scores or 10.00 points in our scoring system.

Maurice Jones-Drew RB Jacksonville Jaguars – Not it’s not that I don’t like MJD, it’s just that he is matched against an improving Steelers defense. Look for him to post similar numbers to last week. 100 total yards, but this time without the TD. 10 points puts him on this list.

Arian Foster RB Houston Texans – Yes, Foster has bounced back nicely from the hamstring problems but this week it’s the very tough Ravens defense and not the Raiders. I still see Foster rushing for 70 and catching passes for another 30. Adding in a TD gets him close to 20 but with 4 catches he’s in at 17 which is less that our goal of 20 this week.

DeSean Jackson WR Philadelphia Eagles – Jackson had a very nice Week 5 against the Bills, but the Redskins defense is better against the pass than the Bills. DeSean ripped the Redskins apart last year, but not in this game. The Redskins
have had a week to prepare for Jackson and prepared they will be. 4 catches 80 yards and a TD or 16 points.

2011 NFL Week Five Fantasy – Diamonds and Not So Rough

Welcome to Week 5 of the fantasy and NFL season and the debut of my “Diamonds and Not So Rough” column. This column will focus on five players that are highly rated that I see with the probability of high scoring weeks and five players that are rated highly that in my mind will disappear this week and disappoint their owners.  These opinions are just that opinions and I’m certainly not recommending that if I happen to be down on Ray Rice for a week that you bench him and play Chester Taylor in his place (sorry Chester but you were washed up at least two years ago). Place kickers and defensive players will not be discussed in this column on a weekly basis.

The scoring system I will use to grade my performance is this:

  • All touchdowns 6 points
  • .04 point per yard passing
  • .1 per yard for rushing/receiving,
  • points per receptions > .25 RB/.50 WR/1.00 all others;
  • -1 per interception
  • -3 for interception return for TDs (also known as pick sixes).

Diamonds: I’m looking for a 60% success ratio and I’m looking for the same 60% for the Not So Rough players. A Diamond must score at least 15 points in the scoring system listed above while a Not So Rough player must score under 20 to be considered a success.

So without further adieu here are this week’s picks for Diamonds:

Willis McGahee RB Denver Broncos.

Willis is now the #1 running back in Denver, but a somewhat healthy Knowshown Moreno is lurking in the background. This week he faces the San Diego Chargers at home. The Chargers have the 5th best pass defense and the 12th ranked rush defense in the NFL. Denver has to rely a little more on their running game as putting the ball in Kyle Orton’s hands too much is proving to be their downfall. The Chargers may have their way with the Broncos but the good news is Willis can catch. Willis should crack my goal of 15 points this week with 80 yards rushing, 30 yards receiving and my bold call – a short TD pass from Tim Tebow!

Greg Olsen TE Carolina Panthers.

We all know the Saints pass defense is not very good and Panthers QB Cam Newton has established a fine chemistry with Olsen. I’ve seen at least one of his touchdowns and a few other nice catches called back on penalties. Couple his matchup, plus the face I traded him this week and Olsen is looking at a 6 catch, 100 yard receiving and 1 TD game. That’s good for 22 points in our scoring system.

Mark Sanchez QB New York Jets

Coming off a negative week in most scoring systems along with Rex Ryan’s assertion that the team will be more “ground n’ pound” makes this prediction a scary proposition.  The good news is Sanchez gets to play the Patriots horrific pass defense. 280 yards along with 2 TDs and 2 INTs make this a 21 point day for Mr. Sanchez.

Julio Jones WR Atlanta Falcons

Tune in to NBC to watch the rookie breakout game for Falcons #2 WR rookie Julio Jones. The Green Bay pass defense is struggling andAtlantais out for a little revenge after last season’s playoff whipping. My Diamond prediction for Jones is 8 catches, 125 yards and 2 TDs or close to 28 points.

Mario Manningham WR New York Giants

Mario was projected as a top wide receiver heading into the season and he’s been nothing short of disappointing so far. That will all change this week againstSeattle. They have a decent pass defense but they won’t stop Super Mario this week. 100+ yards, 6 catches and a TD are looking like conservative projections this week.

Now for the Not So Roughs:

Cedric Benson RB Cincinnati Bengals

He has a suspension looming, but something tells me it’s taking so long he will avoid the suspension. So while some will see this as his farewell for three weeks game, I just see it as another disappointing game in what’s become a pretty disappointing career.Jacksonvillecan stop the run and they will this week too. No TDs and 75 total yards for “Ced.”

Stevie Johnson WR Buffalo Bills

 

Nnamdi orAsante, pick your poison this week, Stevie. The “Dream Team” is struggling and they face pretty close to a “must win” this week. I think the Bills play them tough and beat them but RB Fred Jackson, not the passing game leads the way. Stevie will probably find the end zone for one TD but 4 catches and 60 yards receiving keep him under my goal of 20 points.

Maurice Jones-Drew RB Jacksonville Jaguars

The Bengals defense does not get a lot of respect, but they have played the run pretty good so far this year. MJD faces a bigger challenge then he’s probably expecting this week. He probably needs a lot of catches this week to exceed the 20 point barrier. I don’t see him doing that. One TD and less than 100 total yards won’t get him to 20 points.

Brandon Lloyd WR Denver Broncos

Lloyd faces a tough matchup with the Chargers 5th ranked pass defense. His QB is struggling and Lloyd has not come close to approaching last year’s numbers. In some ways WR Eric Decker has taken over as the #1 wide receiver inDenver. Lloyd will have some catches this week but he’ll be under 100 yards again and not in the end zone. Anyway you slice it it’s less than 20 points.

Chris “Beanie” Wells RB Arizona Cardinals

Coming off last week’s three TD game he’s rated high on most people’s list this week. This week he faces two challenges, one the hamstring is still not 100% and the Vikings staunch run defense. I see Beanie scoring a TD this week, but that coupled with less than 100 total yards does not equal 20 points so he’s a Not So Rough this week.