CFB 2012 – “Seven Out” Week Nine

Michigan @ Nebraska (-2.5, O/U 57.5) – I have lost complete confidence in Bo Pelini’s ability to coach this Huskers team. Bo is an above average defensive coordinator, but is not a head coaching material. And yes, there are some sour grapes here, I am pissed that this program cannot get back to their mid 90s level, but let’s be honest, that run might never happen again for any program let alone a program on the plains of Nebraska. But the thing is the program right now is nowhere near even the early 90’s, when the Huskers were routinely getting trounced every time they ran into a top five team. The program is a train wreck right now and the reality is, it has been since Solich took over the program in 1998.

In fact, if you showed me a random set of games from each of the last three Husker coaches over the last 14 years, I would probably have a difficult time telling who the head coach was for the particular game. Need proof? Tell me the head coach in these three games:

Game

Points Allowed

Yards Allowed

Turnovers

Point Diff

Game #1

76

572

-5

-37

Game #2

62

582

-4

-26

Game #3

63

498

-3

-25

 

At first glance, you might be tempted to utter the words “Bill Callahan” for all three and while it is true that the Huskers were especially bad in Callahan’s final season the above are from Solich’s second to last year (Colorado, Game #2), Callahan’s last season (Kansas, Game #1) and Pelini’s, hopefully, final season (Ohio State, Game #3).

The interesting fact about those three games is each opponent was ranked in the top 15 at the time of the game, Colorado (#14), Kansas (#8) and Ohio State (#12). In other words, the Huskers have been stuck in neutral since the end of the Solich era. Ironically, Solich was fired after a 9-2, because the two losses were so egregious that the administration felt like the Huskers were “surrendering the BIG12 to those teams.” The irony is that the Huskers have not had a signature win over a top opponent since Tom Osborne left the sidelines for Washington D.C. sewer.

The translation to the current state of the program is that they are completely irrelevant on the national scene. If I were to make a comparison to the music industry I would call the Huskers Boyz II Men, who dominated the mid-90s but haven’t cracked the Top 100 since the new millennium.

I get that no program stays on top forever, but I guess I feel like the Huskers should be more like Brittney Spears, who went from dominate to complete train wreck to at least holding her own on the national scene. Saturday the Huskers get another chance to take a step towards national respectability, while telling the new athletic director they care about Pelini’s job. All they have to do is beat the 22nd best team in the country. Wow, how times have changed. Get ready for another #EpicFail from the Huskers.

Play: Michigan +2.5

Michigan State @ Wisconsin (-6.5, O/U 41.0) – You remember that old song by Percy Sledge, “When a Man Loves a Woman?” It was such a classic that the song was remade in the 90s by Michael Bolton, the singer not the guy from Office Space. One of the lines from that song sums up my feelings about Michigan State, “If she is bad, he can’t see it, she can do no wrong.” I love this team, despite the spitting the bit effort four times this season, I will steadfastly and blindly will back them when getting points. True, they have a shaky quarterback, but outside of that this Spartan team is solid across the board, in fact, in my mind, they are the most talented team in the BIG10. On defense they’re loaded with William Gholston wreaking havoc and causing opposing offensive tackles to piss themselves at the mere sight of him. Overall, the roster has four of the top 100 draft prospects according to my good friends at Drafttek.

Plus let’s look further at this line, it seems high but I guess beating up on Illinois and Purdue entitles the Badgers to give a better team close to a touchdown. Sure, Wisconsin seemingly has it figured out, but I remember less than a month ago a text message from a smart-aleck Badgers friend of mine, “How you doing?” after Wisconsin went up 17 in Lincoln. My response, “I’m fine, this Wisconsin team is garbage.” Truer wordswere never texted, as the Huskers rallied to handle the “garbage team.”

My buddy told mo last week, “I just wish we could replay that Nebraska game now that we have figured it out.” Uh, news flash, pal, everybody looks good against Illinois.

And if we look at Sparty’s losses, there is only one legit loss the season and that was to the eventual National Champ, Norte Dame – foreshadowing fella, foreshadowing. The other three losses were by two points to Ohio State (complete with horrific game changing call against MSU), two points to Michigan (where the defense gave up a late drive, but held the Wolverines to 4 field goals) and the horrible overtime loss to Iowa, where I firmly believe they slept walked through the second half because well, to be frank, they were playing Iowa. Now if they win those three games, no way in hell is Wisconsin favored by six!

Maybe the Spartans are playing me for a fool . . . and I am the last one to know.

Play: Michigan State +6.5

Texas Tech @ Kansas State (-7.5, O/U 61.0) – Texas Tech is the “third game flat” situation, two weeks ago they wrecked Geno Smith’s Heisman campaign and last week the Red Raiders won a three overtime thriller against TCU. This is my only total of the week, but I would be willing to make this my “Total of the Year,” guaranteed to win or you get the remainder of October absolutely free.

Play: Under 57.54

North Carolina State @ North Carolina (-7.5, 54.5) – I have these two teams equal so at most I would think this number should be Carolina -4, of course that assumes a normal home field advantage. We know that unless the Heels bring out Roy Williams’ boys for a special halftime show Kenan will be half filled with about a quarter of the fans being rabid college football fans. Therefore, this is more like a neutral field game for the Wolfpack. Given that, I feel like I am getting a free 7.5

Play: North Carolina State +7.5

BYU @ Georgia Tech (-2.5, O/U 51.0) – If this past week’s Presidential debate, and a certain candidate’s alma mater, is any indication of the outcome of coming weekend’s games, BYU is in big trouble. It’s almost like Obama was bored in the first couple debates but decided to “squash this annoying little troll” in the most recent debate.

I uncovered this little known fact about a college football in election years – the alma mater of the losing candidate is 6-0 ATS on the second to last weekend prior to the election.

Yeah, I made that up. . .but look for it to be 1-0 after Saturday and next Tuesday.

Play: BYU +2.5

Baylor @ Iowa State (-3.0, O/U 70.0) – Personally, I don’t see how Iowa State can keep up with Baylor. The posted total of 70 is the highest by a wide margin for the Cyclones this season, meaning they will likely need to accumulate many pointalones. Won’t happen.

Play: Baylor +3.0

Syracuse @ South Florida (-3.5, O/U 52.5) – South Florida had played fairly decent football this season, but that has not translated into wins. That’s ok because they need to focus on the process not necessarily the results. Or least that’s the message from the children’s soccer club. So, focusing on the process instead of results can be translated as “we suck, so we can’t use results as a way to measure our success.” Don’t worry I am not going to go off on a 1500 word rant about some arbitrary soccer club but the reality is South Florida has been competitive this season, but lost several close games, meaning they are getting the best of this line.

I made the case today that Syracuse often gets more respect in football simply because of their basketball program. It almost like everyone takes a glance at this game and thinks, “wow, Syracuse should win this game.” That opinion is based on the Orangemen hoop team and not the mediocre football team. Well, I am here to tell you the Orange are garbage.

Play: South Florida -3.5

Those are my official “Seven Out”, but here is onemore that didn’t quite make the cut:

Oklahoma -12.0 over Norte Dame – If the Irish fall behind the Sooners 14-7, they will blink and look up at a 35-7 deficit. A few too many points, but I will tell you that I almost always play against an “obvious” point spread that is mis-aligned with current rankings, for example, ND is #5 and catching almost 2 touchdowns, the play is OU.

Best of luck this week.

Note: I use the LVH Lines from vegasinsider.com.

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