2012 NFL Predictions – Week 06, “Mendoza Line” Edition

4-10? How does a great handicapper like Colin Wynner manage to go 4-10? Well, by catching a lucky Willis McGahee fumble as the Broncos were about to close to within three points of the Patriots last week, that’s how!
It was a bad, bad week. It has left me well below the Mendoza line overall, I dropped 150 places in the SuperContest and my confidence has taken a beating. That’s right my confidence is not busting out of my head with a harmonica, it’s sheepishly peering out to see if the “bad man” is still around.
And I started out this week 0-1, because I let myself get talked out of the Titans Thursday. When it is going bad, it is going bad. But just as easily I can be back over the Mendoza line with an eye on the penthouse suite at the Bellagio by the end of this week.

Note: I use the LVH Lines from vegasinsider.com. The Super Contest lines are not live, but instead are set and held the entire week.

The “SuperContest” picks:

Indianapolis @ NY Jets (-3.0) – The hype on the Colts is a little much. So what, they rallied to beat the Packers, who are much more like the 2009 Packers than the 2011 Packers. They’ve also beaten the Vikings at home. But this is a road game after an emotional comeback win. Call it the “come out flat after you leave everything on the field for your coach, who was just diagnosed with Leukemia” angle. Pick: NY Jets -3.0

Oakland @ Atlanta (-9.0) – Three straight weeks the Falcons have flirted with a loss. As my wife tells me, there is no such thing as innocent flirtation. This might be the week the Falcons give into the temptation and just lose. Plus, that will take down roughly 80% of the remaining entries in Survivor pools, good times, this NFL is. Pick: Oakland +9.0

Green Bay @ Houston (-3.5) – The 2012 Packers might be closer to the 2009 version than the 2011 version but I like them getting points in any situation. Do you realize the Packers haven’t lost a game as an underdog since December 12th, 2010? Pick: Green Bay +3.5

Minnesota (-2.5) @ Washington (-1.5) – Yeah, the contest line is Washington +2.5, while the actual betting line is Washington -1.5. I am predicting a Washington one point victory! Not really, it the Vikings time, come on this team is not going to be 5-1. Pick: Washington +2.5

Dallas @ Baltimore (-3.5) – Love the Cowboys in this spot because the Ravens seem to be so concerned with making sure the world knows that Joe Flacco is an elite quarterback that they have gotten away from what they do best – run the ball to setup the pass. Well, the Cowboys strength on defense happens to be the secondary, therefore, when those stubborn Ravens have Flacco throwing all over the place like they’re coached by Mike Martz, they probably will struggle to win. Pick: Dallas +3.5

The “Free Money” pick:

Cincinnati (-2.5) @ Cleveland – Sucker bet, I know, but you know what suckers win sometimes. Pick: Cincinnati -2.5

The “Movable Object vs. Resistible Force” pick:

St. Louis @ Miami (-4.5) – I cannot see this Rams team moving to 4-2, but I cannot see the Dolphins winning two in a row, especially when one of those games is at home. Uh, uh, give me the points. . . Pick: St. Louis +4.5

The “Suicide Watch” pick:

Detroit @ Philadelphia (-3.5) – One of my buddies is a diehard Eagles fan, who when I saw him after loss to the Steelers, I asked him what he thought. His reply, “I won’t watch another Eagles game until Michael Vick is no longer the quarterback and Andy Reid is no longer the coach.” Wow, that’s harsh, even for the most pessimistic Philly fan, goodness this team is 3-2 after all. But what he knows, and what all Eagles fans know, is that the Eagles are three plays away from being 0-5. And that the Eagles simply aren’t very good. But the football gods need to have some mercy on these Philly fans, I am not saying Super Bowl necessarily, but give them a week reprieve, allow Vick to play well and the Iggles to win big. Done and done! Pick: Philadelphia -3.5

The “In Over their Head” pick:

New England (-3.5) @ Seattle – The Seahawks have a legit defense, great special teams, but their rookie quarterback is limiting what they can do, and thus truncating how far they can go this season. In other words, he is killing them! I get it, Petey, you effed up by naming Wilson the starter in the first place. And now you’re screwed, if you go to Flynn, Wilson’s confidence will be a little like mine right now, constantly looking over his shoulder and afraid to bend over. Then if Flynn sucks, you are trapped, you’ve got no options! Dammit, why, oh why, did the Seahawks trade Tavaris Jackson! That aside the Seabags need to figure out a way to win at least one of their next three games: Pats, @49ers and @Lions. No way, Russell Wilson wins in SF and Detroit may have things figured out by then. Therefore, this is the game. Look for craziness to ensue, maybe along the lines of an onside kick to open the game, a couple extra long field goals, a return TD and an amazing goal line stand to end the game. Pick: Seattle +3.5

The “Sunday Night Hangover” pick:

Denver @ San Diego (-1.5) – I am sure it sucks to lose any time in the NFL, but to have the game literally stolen away because of Goodell’s hidden agenda, must really, really suck. It is obvious that Goodell wanted to soften the blow of the bounty suspensions by giving the Saints a win last week. It was painfully obvious to some of us. Now the question is – will he repay the Chargers this week or sometime later in the season? It would be far too obvious if were to happen this week. Pick: Denver +1.5

The “Ass Kickin” pick:

Buffalo @ Arizona (-4.5) – Since 1989 three teams have given up more than 96 points in consecutive weeks. Last week the 2012 Bills joined the 1989 Bucs, 2004 Browns and 2004 Titans in that illustrious group. The combined ATS record of those teams the following week is 0-3. Uh, make that 0-4 after this week. Oh, if the Cardinals lay 44 points on the Bills, the Bills will have the record for most points given up in a three game stretch. Imagine, if they didn’t throw all that money Mario Williams way. Pick: Arizona -4.5

The “Brady Quinn Era Begins” pick:

Kansas City @ Tampa Bay (-4.0) – Here is something incredibly bizarre about the psychology of point spreads – if this line is 3.5, I love the Chiefs, but at 4.0 I will take the Bucs. I know it’s nuts, but the best I can explain it is like this, at 3.5, I feel like the teams are equal but I get the gift hook; at 4.0 I feel like the favored team is superior, therefore, give me the better team. Oh, that AND BRADY EFFING QUINN is starting on the road in a hostile environment. Pick: Tampa Bay -4.0

The “Sure, I will cheer for the house” pick:

NY Giants @ San Francisco (-6.5) – The road warriors are getting 6.5 points? Ok, here is the deal, if this was the posted number, I take the 49ers because that would be out of line by the odds-makers therefore, I would assume they know something and have posted a number to attract as much Giants action as possible. But this game was bet up to 6.5 by the public. And spare me the line about, “Only Sharp money moves lines.” You’re right unless everyone from San Francisco to Manhattan is playing the 49ers. That’s the case here, as the books are heavily exposed on the 49ers. And guess what it’s never a bad idea to jump in bed with the house. Well, unless the house has syphilis of course. Pick: NY Giants +6.5

Colin Wynner makes prank calls!

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