Nebraska @ Ohio State (-3.5, O/U 56) – Here’s a name for you all to remember – Cardale Jones. First off, you have to love anyone named Cardale, but especially this Cardale, who simply asked the question that most student-athletes have asked for ages: “Why should we have to go to class if we came here to play FOOTBALL, we ain’t come to play SCHOOL classes are POINTLESS.” For the record that Jones tweet lasted about as long as, the now jettisoned, Angie stayed underwater in this week’s episode of Survivor.
Who is Cardale Jones, you ask? Well, he is THE OHIO STAE Buckeyes third team quarterback. There is nothing I like more than when a guy, who doesn’t see the field, causes a stir right before a huge game. And, while I get that you only have 140 characters to tell everyone what’s on your mind, judging by Cardale’s grammar, he might want to take college a little more seriously. Of course, the world needs ditch diggers as well!
On to the game, here is my logic:
- A bookmaker one week ago tweeted his advanced lines for next week’s big games:
Todd Fuhrman is the former director of the Caesars Palace Sportsbook, so he’s literally done this for a living. He had OSU at 7.5 last week, prior to the Buckeyes win at Michigan State. I am not sure how that win doesn’t at least keep the Buckeyes, in terms of power rating, right where they were. And I don’t know how that shitshow by the Huskers would warrant them getting a four point advantage this week but that’s what happened. Sure, the Husker won, but come on Wisconsin is garbage.
- Quick, tell me the Huskers last signature road win? Even those suffering from short term memory loss can tell you it hasn’t happened in the Bo Pelini era, unless you consider beating #21 Missouri on the road a signature win. I don’t! Therefore, you have to go back to 1997 when the Huskers went to Seattle and waxed the then #2 Washington Huskies. That was Tom Osborne’s last season as the head coach. I will take the 14 years of failure in this spot and pray that the Huskers don’t find a way to lose by 1 or 2.
- Nebraska struggles against teams with athletes. Ohio State has athletes. Therefore, Nebraska, will struggle. I love the transitive property.
- I don’t trust Taylor Martinez in any big road game. Sure, his throwing motion is better and he appears to be more confident leading the team, but at some point during this game, Husker fans worldwide will collectively say to themselves, ‘Welcome back, Taylor.” That reference is to the Taylor that Huskers fans have become accustomed to seeing in big games, when he routinely comes up small in games, especially those on the road.
- The coaching match-up is heavily in favor of Ohio State. It’s not really about Urban Meyer, it’s more that I don’t trust Bo Pelini in this spot. Again if this was a blowing snot out of your unusually large nostrails, Bo is your guy, but not when you need this guy to come up big on the road in a hostile environment.
Don’t get me wrong I would love to see the Huskers defecate on the “O” at midfield after slapping the Buckeyes silly; I just don’t see it happening.
Play: Ohio State -3.5
Northwestern @ Penn State (-3.0, O/U 47.0) – If Penn State had a field goal kicker they might be undefeated right now, at the very least they would certainly be 3-1. Last week they played their best game in quite a while by ass-raping – too soon, yeah too soon – severely beating down Illinois. But let’s not get too excited about beating a horrible Fighting Illini team that might be the worst team in the Big Ten. Somewhere Ron Zook is laughing his ass off.
Northwestern is by far the best team the Nittany Lions have faced this season. And at some isn’t the “rah, rah” nature of Bill O’Brien going to wear thin? Look the Lions wanted to beat Illinois badly because the Illini sent their entire staff to State College to lure players to transfer after the NCAA brought down the hammer. I hear it was like a bus load of pedophiles getting off at the elementary school stop right at the beginning of recess. Therefore, it makes sense that Penn State played great, those players who stayed, stayed because they’re loyal, so they would want a piece of the “Outlanders” trying to break up the cult.
Oh, and remember if it’s close and comes down to a field goal by Penn State, I like my chances.
Play: Northwestern -3.0
LSU (-2.5, 42) @ Florida – Florida has been an underdog at home just 16 times since 1980. They’re 8-8 ATS in those games, but last year they went 0-2 ATS and 0-4 overall the last four times. What those numbers tell me is that the Gators are due!
Color me very unimpressed by LSU this season; this number is all about the ranking and pre-2012 reputation. Plus, I’ve just little hidden gem for you – it’s possible that LSU wants to lose this game to take a bit of the hype of the Alabama game, knowing that Bama is going to destroy them, if they lose this game maybe they can catch Bama sleeping on them. Yeah, that doesn’t make any sense, but trust me the Tigers are in trouble here.
Play: Florida +2.5
Washington State @ Oregon State (-15.5, 58.5) – One of the “plays” that has worked well for me this season is what I call the “third game flat” play – basically, my theory is that teams can get up two consecutive weeks for big games, but they will fall flat the third week, generally against a team they should beat handedly. This is the third week game for OSU and they should handle WSU with relative ease. And while they are 3-0, they have a point differential of only 13 points, which is less than what they’re favored by this week.
Honestly, this is a leap of faith given the Cougars ineptitude but I offer two points that serve as a parachute if you choose to take the leap: 1. The more time Mike Leach has with this team the more comfortable they will become with his proven effective system; and 2. No system play is 100%, there will be losses, but sports investing rule #65 – “you don’t cherry-pick games from a system, you play them all.”
Play: Washington State +15.5
West Virginia @ Texas (-6.5, 73.5) – Goodness, have you seen Mack Brown lately, dude has aged like he’s been the president of the US of over the last four years. I guess that’s what happens when you start pissing off the alums by losing to Oklahoma and finishing with less than 10 wins. The problem is they can’t fire a guy who brought them their only championship in the last 40 years (yeah, mother effing Texas fans, you have one lousy effing championship in 40 years), so instead they start making his life miserable which has caused the affable Brown to age like a dog. I can imagine the alums inviting him to dinner but the only allow him half of a meal, and giving him the friendly “pat on the back”, you know the one where they put the “kick me” sign. Those Texans can be so cruel!
Here is the key to the game for the Longhorns – hit Geno Smith in the mouth early. It’s that simple, hit him and he starts thinking about getting and not throwing to wide open receivers running all over the field. This might be a big enough game where the Longhorn defensive coaches install a bounty an incentive program, where the first player who gets a hit on Smith gets the 50K summer security job, where the primary function is watching an oil field to make sure it doesn’t get stolen.
Play: Texas -6.5 and Under 73.5
Washington @ Oregon (-24.5, O/U 63.0) – Washington has had 10 days to hear how great they are after upsetting the Stanford Cardinal. By the time they realize they’re not that good, the Ducks will be up 38-0.
I believe I have the right side on this game – but I will make this concession – if the Ducks don’t cover the spread this game goes way, way under the total. There is no way Washington wins a shootout with the Ducks. So, it’s up to you loyal follower, either the side or the parlay, one of them is a guarantee.
Play: Oregon -24.5
Note: I use the LVH Lines from vegasinsider.com.