2012 NFL Predictions – Week 04, “Slow and Steady” edition

“Slow and steady wins the race” – A 9-7 week three gives me a second consecutive winning week and pushes my overall record one game below the Mendoza line.

Note: I use the LVH Lines from vegasinsider.com. The Super Contest lines are not live, but instead are set and held the entire week.

The “SuperContest” picks:

San Francisco (-4.0) @ NY Jets – Nothing screams “Five wide” more than hearing Joe McKnight will begin take snaps at corner back. It would be like hitting the lottery for one lucky 49er receiver.

Yeah, this is a sucker bet of the week, but come on the 49ers aren’t going to lose back-to-back games to mediocre teams. . . Cue the “win but fail to cover” game. . .

Pick: San Francisco -4.0

Seattle (-2.5) @ St. Louis – The big question is will the real refs restore justice to the NFL by erasing that gift victory the Seahawks received last week. Because that is entirely possible, and the Seahawks are on a short travel week, give those pesky Rams.

Pick: St. Louis +2.5

New England (-4.0) @ Buffalo – So far in 2012 home team underdogs have been crazy good, like 13-6 ATS crazy good. We most likely owe that to the replacement refs, who clearly favored the home teams. We should start to see a regression to the normal home team dog ATS record now that the real refs are back. There are four home dogs this week I cannot see more than two of them covering. And New England can’t possible lose three in a row, can they?

Pick: New England -4.0

Tennessee @ Houston (-12.0) – The Titans are 4-1 ATS when they’re double digit dog the week after being an underdog of any amount. Prior to this season the Texans had been double digit favorites just five times. Five times in the franchise history! This will be close game that will cause a sweat for anyone still alive in a survivor pool.

Pick: Tennessee +12.0

Miami @ Arizona (-6.5) – Wow, I could only get 6.5 points on my “once and for all retirement score” bet. I guess the Vegas odds-makers aren’t buying into the Cardinals just yet. And as of press time this number was falling faster than Mitt Romney presidential chances – down to 4.5 in a few places.

Pick: Miami +6.5

The “Home Team Dogs” picks:

San Diego (-1.5) @ Kansas City – I get it now, the Chiefs don’t start playing until week three, it must be for religious reasons. Norv Turner wouldn’t be Norv Turner if he won games like this.

Pick: Kansas City +1.5

The “I didn’t check the parachute before jumping” pick:

New Orleans @ Green Bay (-7.5) – I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if the Saints came away from Green Bay with a win. Despite the impressive performance by the Packers defense over the last couple of weeks, I am not a believer. After all it was Jay Cutler and Russell Wilson. Points a plenty in this game, therefore give me the touchdown with a hook.

Pick: New Orleans +7.5

The “Fool me once, your bad, fool twice, my bad, fool me numerous times, me retarded” pick:

Chicago @ Dallas (-3.5) – I cannot believe I am going to do this, but yes I am going to back Jay Cutler on the road again. In related news, I just stuck a fork in an electrical outlet for the fourth time in my life.

At the end of the day, I don’t trust either team offensively; the defenses should dominate in a low scoring tight battle, give me the hook in that case every day and twice on Monday night.

Colin’s 2012 NFL Season Stats

Last Week:

9-7

This Week:

1-0-0

2012 Season Record:

24-24-1

2012 SuperContest Record

7-7-1 (Tied for 209th place)

Pick: Chicago +3.5

The “Trending” pick:

NY Giants @ Philadelphia (-2.5) – The Giants are 12-2 ATS in the last 14 games when playing the second of back-to-back road games.

The Eagles will fall to 0-4 after this game, is it finally time to admit that the Eagles are garbage. This chant will begin around “the Linc” with two minutes left in the third quarter Sunday night, “NICK FOR VICK, NICK FOR VICK”

Pick: NY Giants +2.5

The “She’s really hot, no really, she’s hot” pick:

Washington @ Tampa Bay (-2.5) – Follow me here – let’s go back to high school and let’s say that at a random party you meet a girl from another school and she looks great. And by great, I mean like super duper hot. Now the next few times you see her she doesn’t look anywhere near as hot. But you cannot get that original image out of your head. That’s the Skins. That opening weekend performance had us all believing the Redskins were legit, when they really aren’t.

Pick: Tampa Bay -2.5

Cincinnati @ Jacksonville (-1.0) – Wow surprisingly the Jaguars are favored in this game. That Cincinnati defense is going to ruin this team.

Pick: Jacksonville -1.0

The “Did you know” pick:

Minnesota @ Detroit (-4.0) – Did you know the Lions are 0-3 ATS this season? And the Lions are really in a must-win situation today, as they are treading water at 1-2 and have four of their next five on the road. OK, I will take a desperate team over one that is feeling pretty good about their situation.

Pick: Detroit -4.0

The “I didn’t save and Microsoft Word EFF’d me” picks:

Oakland @ Denver (-7.0) – To me this game is a toss-up, but I will slightly lean against “noodle arm” Manning and take the touchdown.

Pick: Oakland +7.0

Carolina @ Atlanta (-7.0) – Another coin flip game. This game could be part of the “No really, she’s hot” section due to the Panthers looking like garbage so far this season after they had us enamored with their beauty coming into the season. I still don’t completely trust the Falcons when laying a big number like this, but what the heck, the flip cam up heads – home team.

Pick: Atlanta -7.0

Colin Wynner calls the winners. Good Luck to all, but mostly to me!


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