2012 NFL Predictions – Week 03, “Baby Steps” edition

Colin is baby stepping his way back to .500. Woohoo! The week 3 winners:

Note: I use the LVH Lines from vegasinsider.com. The Super Contest lines are not live, but instead are set and held the entire week.

 

The “SuperContest” picks:

 

Buffalo (-3.0) @ Cleveland – I get it, the Bills bust up those that tough Chiefs team and now they get the right to be favored on the road. The pre-season line on this game was Bills -1, so what have the Bills done in the first two weeks to force that line to move up two points? Honestly, I think the Browns have been more impressive so far this season.

 

Picks: Cleveland +3.0

 

Green Bay (-3.0) @ Seattle – I might just throw Seattle in this spot every week. Is it just me or does feel like a spot where public bettors will hammer the Packers? Three measly points! Of course, if you look at the way the 49ers took it to the Packers in week one and realize the Seahawks are a similar defense, that might provoke some thought on behalf of the public. Nah, that’s too much work!

 

In my mind, the Packers have only beaten teams with gutless quarterbacks. Russell Wilson is not gutless.

 

Picks: Seattle +3.0

 

Philadelphia (-4.0) @ Arizona – I love me some of these home dogs. So, this is a bridge game for the Cardinals where if they win this game everyone, including the odds-makers, will buy into them, meaning I can play the Dolphins next week at plus double digits. In related news, next week’s picks column will be my last column every as I will take my winnings from the Dolphins and retire to Costa Rica. I might setup shop down with a new online gambling website called “NoahWynners.com”, like sign up, deposit money and bet but there are “No a winners, here.”

 

Colin’s 2012 NFL Season Stats

Last Week:

8-7-1

This Week:

1-0-0

2012 Season Record:

15-17-1

2012 SuperContest Record

5-4-1 (Tied for 191st place)

Picks: Arizona +4.0

 

Atlanta @ San Diego (-3.5) – This is a really, really tough spot for the Falcons. Think about the what is going against them – short week, cross country trip and sub-standard coaching staff that allowed the Broncos to stay in the game last week. Plus, I still don’t believe Matty Ice is a legit big time quarterback and that is especially true once a team makes some adjustments on him.

 

Let’s also throw that the Falcons are probably already planning the “Clinched the NFC South Division” party, given the fact the rest of the division looks horrible. Give the Chargers with the hook against me.

 

Picks: San Diego -3.5

 

Houston (-2.5) @ Denver – Yeah, Manning isn’t Manning but at least the Broncos have played somebody this year. Houston would have been better off canceling their first two games with replacements being Alabama and LSU. Those two SEC teams would have given the Texans a better test than the Dolphins and Jags.

 

Picks: Denver +2.5

 

The “Contrarian Move” picks:

 

NY Jets (-1.0) @ Miami – I don’t want to do this, but when 72% of the action is on the Jets, yet has the line moved down 1.5 points, I have to interpret that as someone who does this for living, better known as a “Sharp”, has some information that they used to their advantage to pick a side that lowered the line, despite the overwhelming numbers on that side. The “Sharp” gets down on the game at the best number, in this case +2.5. But unless the number moves below a key number (3 or 7), we can jump on the Sharp information for free.

 

Picks: Miami +1.0

 

Pittsburgh (-3.5) @ Oakland – Pittsburgh has 84% of the action, the number has moved from 4.5 to 3.5. Plus, this feels a lot like an Oakland rout to me. Pittsburgh has been to the west for a week one primetime game, back home and now back west, that’s a lot for a team.

 

Picks: Oakland +3.5

 

The “Bad Matchup”:

 

Tampa Bay @ Dallas (-8.0) – Now I like Tom Coughlin, but his bitching last week about the way the Bucs played the kneel-down was weak. It would’ve been awesome if Schiano would have just clocked Coughlin and then walked away as though nothing happened.

 

This line is way too high at 8 points, but this is bad matchup for a Bucs team that has already over-achieved early this season.

 

    Dallas -8.0

 

The “Right the Ship” picks:

 

Kansas City @ New Orleans (-8.5) – The Romeo watch has begun. Look, in 2011 the Chiefs hated Todd Haley that they rallied around Romeo to win two of their last three games. They loved Romeo, partly because he wasn’t Todd Haley and partly because he was like a giant teddy bear. These 2012 NFL players are fickle though and now they clearly don’t like Romeo and Romeo clearly isn’t a very good NFL head coach.

 

My dream of seeing the Saints winless this season is over . . .

 

Picks: New Orleans -8.5

 

St. Louis @ Chicago (-7.0) – The Bears might be one of those “defining mediocrity” teams that whips the bad teams but gets whipped by the better NFL teams. The Rams are playing tougher, but we should expect a group hug between Cutler and his offensive in the post-game locker room celebration.

 

Picks: Chicago -7.0

The “On Second Thought” pick:

 

Cincinnati @ Washington (-3.0) – So, that opening week win for the Redskins doesn’t look so good now that the Saints are pretty much a train wreck. And losing Brian Orakpo isn’t going to help the Redskins already porous defense, though it will give him more time to figure out Shaq-ism’s in order to defeat the Geico Caveman. Is there a more uncomfortable actor than Orakpo? Like what is Geico thinking, “Hey, can we get Tom Brady? Oh, that’s too much money, what do you have for about 10% of that? Who, Orangutan? Uh, ok.”

 

Picks: Cincinnati +3.0

 

The “Free Money” pick:

 

San Francisco (-6.5) @ Minnesota – You want to know what my feelings on this game? Of course you do, you hang on my every word. Here is the deal, how in the hell are the Vikings going to cover this spread if the 49ers go up 14. The only way is if the 49ers come out flat. Given that they have played two nationally televised high profile games back-to-back and have the Jets on tap, this appears to have that potential especially considering those crafty odds-makers are making the 49ers ever so enticing.

 

Picks: Minnesota +6.5

 

The “Even Horrible Teams Cover Spreads” picks:

 

Detroit (-3.5) @ Tennessee – I guess we can safely say that Chris Johnson is a fantasy football bust and I cannot see it getting any better this week after he threw his O-Line under the bus. What a gutless move. The Titans O-Line should agree to block their asses off for Jamie Harper and pull a Longest Yard move when CJDBAGK runs the ball. That aside, this Lions team is very mediocre.

 

Picks: Tennessee +3.5

 

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis (-3.0) – This game looks way too easy, like the Jaguars are garbage and the Colts are on the move, easy winner, right? Well, this feels like a “big brother v. little brother” game to me, with the Jags playing the part of the big brother. And no matter what the situation or how good little brother is, big brother simply will not let little brother beat him.

 

Picks: Jacksonville +3.0

 

 

The “Toss Up” picks:

 

New England @ Baltimore (-3.0) – The case for the Patriots – a. In the Belichick era, the Pats 11-2 after a loss as an underdog; and b. Their goal last week was to only pull out what they needed, sure it burned them, but they accomplished that goal by showing very little to the Ravens.

 

The case for the Ravens – a. They seem to have the Pats number; b. They’re home; and c. This game means more to them than the Pats.

 

Picks: Baltimore -3.0

 

Colin Wynner calls the winners. Good Luck to all, but mostly to me!

 


 

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