CFB Week 03 “Seven Out”

Oh ouch, Colin’s first foray into the college football ended the same way roughly 50% of incoming college freshmen – academic probation. But Colin has never claimed to call totals, just sides, so if you throw out totals Colin was a very respectable 2-1-1.

Plus, I am no longer a rook; the game is slowing down for me. Let’s get it on!

For a reminder on what “Seven Out” means, read this.

Wake Forest @ Florida State (-27.5, O/U 54) – Uh, well, I feel like FSU is always over-rated simply because the vast majority of America wants the Seminoles to be relevant. What that really means is sports investors can take advantage of the value on the opponents of Florida State.

And that juicy 27.5 spread is tantalizing to those public bettors who are proficient with their fours, as in “4*7 = 28 > 27.5.”

Play: Wake Forest +27.5

Houston @ UCLA (+17, O/U76)    – Flashback to last Saturday night, UCLA players were high fiving fans in the Rose Bowl like they just won the BCS championship. Certainly it was a big win for the Bruins, but let’s be realistic beating Nebraska these days isn’t as special as it once was, and that really emphasizes the point that the Bruins will suffer from a hangover this weekend. And rumor has it on Monday coach Mora ordered rings to celebrate the Bruins “September Champs” title. Look, the Bruins might beat the Cougars senseless but I will take the value on the Cougs as the line should be closer to -13.

Play: Houston +17

Colin’s 2012 CFB Record
Last Week: 2-4-1 (-2.4 units)
Season to date: 2-4-1 (-2.4 units)

Arkansas State @ Nebraska (-23.0, O/U 66.5) – I admit I am a sucker for a lousy defense and just about any total under 100. Given that, this game is a “GOTY” play as the Husker defense is despicable.

But word from Lincoln is the Huskers are going to start playing some of their super, ultra talented freshman. Hmm, yeah that should make the difference plugging in players with zero experience, who have had even less time to figure out Bo Pelini’s over-complicated defensive scheme. But I will play along, let’s assume that the new players are significantly better than what we have seen season to date from the Blackshirts (how tough it that? Eleven cardboard cutouts might be better), all that means is the Huskers roll up a big lead on an equally porous Red Wolves defense, which will lead to the Huskers resting pulling the starters. Which means those original, cardboard cutout-esque players will be on the field at the end of the game which will allow Arkansas State to march up and down the field late in the game. The reality is that I will give ASU at least 24 points, meaning the Huskers only need to score 43 for this game to go over. Consider it done! And yes, I venture back into the abyss of totals!

Play: Over 66.5

Utah State @ Wisconsin (-14.0, O/U 51.0) – Early in any football season a savvy investor can capitalize on what I call an “over-reaction” line. An over-reaction is based on the public over valuing a week result rather looking at a team’s body of work, as well their expectations. If one looks at the odds-makers, their numbers stay fairly consistent until a team has proved that the season expectations either not being met or being surpassed. In this one of the games, given Utah State’s nationally televised victory over Utah last week and Wisconsin’s relatively anonymous loss at Oregon State. This is really the perfect storm of opportunity – Wisky should be favored by over 20 points. We get 6 points of value, as we watched the Badgers roll to four touchdown win..

Play: Wisconsin -14.0

BYU (-3.5, O/U 46) @ Utah – Is this another over-reaction game? You bet it is! Utah looked like crap last week against Utah State and now they face a very formidable BYU team. If by formidable we mean over-rated, ridiculously independent and very beatable.

Play: Utah +3.5

Florida @ Tennessee (-3.0, O/U 48) – I am not exactly sure why Tennessee is favored in this game. I have this as a pick’em at best for Tennessee. Since this a high profile game that will likely be one of the heavier bet games of the day, I am going to trust the odds-makers number here. Even thought the Vols are at home, I feel they are an inferior team, therefore cannot play them especially having to lay points. Not. Going. To. Do. It. But the total looks very tasty at 48. Barring overtime, points should be at a premium in this game.

Play: Under 48.0

Rice @ Louisiana Tech (-21.0, O/U 66.5) –I don’t know much but I know when a border rival is catching three touchdowns you have to play them especially considering a seven-man sled has a better front seven than Louisiana Tech.

And does anyone else think Bulldogs is a strange nickname for a team from Louisiana? It seems like Bullfrogs is more appropriate.

Play: Rice +21.0

3 thoughts on “CFB Week 03 “Seven Out”

  1. the vols will end a 7 game losing streak today tyler bray ia a top qb and will probably be a high pick in nfl. justin hunter is the top wr in college. it will come down to def and any kind of running game.

    • I am hoping that I will end a seven game losing streak after this week is over. Not sure anyone could be worse at picking college games than I have been. #0-7 #NotGood #ReverseIt

  2. My, oh my, I might crack a bottle of champagne if I go 2-5. I seriously think 0-7 is in play.

    Until further notice — simply fade me!

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