NFL 2011 – Week 12 Picks

Ugh! An “0-fer” Thanksgiving has my back against wall in the Wynner Contest, now 11 games behind Megan, who thankfully isn’t paying enough attention to give me any grief.

Note: I use the Las Vegas Hilton Lines from vegasinsider.com. The Super Contest lines are not live, but instead are set and held the entire week.

“Super Wynner Contest” Picks

Contestant

Colin

Juana

Megan

G-Dub

Last Week

10-3-1

7-6-1

6-7-1

5-8-1

Season

70-85-5

75-80-4

79-76-5

90-65-5

Green Bay(-6) @ Detroit

Detroit

Green Bay

Detroit

Detroit

Miami @ Dallas(-7)

Dallas

Dallas

Miami

Dallas

San Francisco @ Baltimore(-3.5)

San Francisco

San Francisco

Baltimore

San Francisco

Buffalo @ NY Jets(-9.5)

NY Jets

Buffalo

Buffalo

NY Jets

Arizona @ St. Louis(-2.5)

Arizona

Arizona

Arizona

Arizona

Minnesota @ Atlanta(-9)

Atlanta

Atlanta

Minnesota

Atlanta

Tampa Bay @ Tennessee(-3.5)

Tennessee

Tennessee

Tennessee

Tampa Bay

Carolina(-3.5) @ Indianapolis

Carolina

Carolina

Indianapolis

Indianapolis

Cleveland @ Cincinnati(-7.5)

Cleveland

Cleveland

Cincinnati

Cleveland

Houston(-6.5) @ Jacksonville

Houston

Houston

Jacksonville

Houston

New England(-3.5) @ Philadelphia

Philadelphia

New England

Philadelphia

New England

Chicago @ Oakland(-4)

Chicago

Oakland

Chicago

Oakland

Washington @ Seattle(-3.5)

Washington

Washington

Seattle

Seattle

Denver @ San Diego(-6)

San Diego

Denver

San Diego

Denver

Pittsburgh(-10.5) @ Kansas City

Kansas City

Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh

Kansas City

NY Giants @ New Orleans(-7)

NY Giants

NY Giants

NY Giants

NY Giants

  • I love the Giants this week as my top play – Eli at home versus Eli on the road is like Windows 3.1 versus Windows 7. There are still a ton of bugs, but Windows 7 is light years ahead of the old 3.1.
  • Why are the Rams favored over anyone?
  • I am also in on the under-valued teams this week – two because they lost their quarterbacks, Houston and Chicago, two because of their poor performance lately, NY Jets and Kansas City and two because of the over-valuing their opponent, San Diego and Cleveland.
  • If San Diego was another other team with a competent head coach, I would term this game the “retirement” score. Look this Tebow thing is out of control and it is just a matter of time before the Broncos are on the opposite end of a 41-7 game. It might just happen this week.
  • The ugliest game of the week is the Bucs and Titans. I have no idea what side to take in this game, given the fact that both teams are wildly inconsistent and I cannot seem to pick the Titans correctly this season.

LVHSC: 3-2, 24-29-2 (Tied for 387th)

Week 11 Recap: Another winning week moves me inside the top 400 for the first time since week four.

Buffalo -2, lost at Miami – Quite possibly the worst pick of the season, narrowly edging out the Chiefs from the week nine.

Jacksonville PK, lost at Cleveland – Another bad beat as the Jaguars had a first and goal at the Cleveland 1 at the end of the game. For those scoring at home that is 9.5 points lost on what I would term “bad beats”. For the record, I have had 1.5 points worth of “bad beats” fall on my side (Week #2, Buffalo and Week #4 Detroit) and 11 points against me. One would think that in general “bad beats” would even out over the course of a season, but in this, the year from hell it doesn’t appear to be the case.

San Francisco -9.5, covered against Arizona – Not even the “bad beat” gods could overcome the Cardinals suckage! Two missed field goals, numerous red zone failures and the Cardinals had ball with a chance to cover late, had me feeling like I was about to face another “bad beat”.

Chicago -3.5, covered against San Diego – Another game where I felt there like a “bad beat” was ordered up, after the Bears receiver falls down and Cutler throws a pick. Thankfully Cutler hustled back to make the tackle and the Chargers, well, did what the 2011 Chargers have done best, find a way to turn a positive into a negative.

Philadelphia +6.5, covered against NY Giants – My favorite pick of the year – simply because as the week wore on there was enough negative information on the Eagles to make a skittish bettor jump to the Giants, but I felt confident that this was “one of those games” where the Eagles would find a way to at worst keep it close.

Week 12 Picks (0-1):

Dallas (LOSS) – The “bet against the Dolphins every week” system isn’t working too well lately.

The rest:

Chicago +5.0, Carolina -3.0, Pittsburgh -10.5, NY Giants +7.0

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s