NFL 2011 – Week 10 Picks – Thursday Night Edition

Oakland @ San Diego (-7.0) – Is there anything better than Thursday night NFL football? I love it, man, the next seven weeks we get the NFL on three days instead of two, how awesome is that? It’s one more day to not take out the garbage, vacuum the house or spend it snuggling with the SO while watching NBC’s Thursday night slate – the “Joe Namath with the Rams” version of The Office and its new show, Whitney.

Quick tangent on “Whitney” – I can’t quite figure this show out, it’s like the NBC execs wanted to test a theory that a girl’s sex appeal gets bumped by three points (standard 1-10 scale) if she appears to be a “girl next door” type but behind the scenes is this hot, slutty, seductive porn star wannabe. The key to pulling that off is the hotness level of the female, right? She has to be hot, but secretly hot, not drop-dead gorgeous hot. Someone like Nicole Kidman would be perfect for the role. Unfortunately, NBC blew it with the actress they got to play Whitney because she isn’t secretly hot in fact she is blatantly homely. If you haven’t seen it, catch one of the last four episodes before it goes the way of “Out-Sourced”.

Whew, I am glad that is out of the way and glad that the NFL will take “big screen” priority in Colin’s abode.

On to the game – the Chargers have lost three straight, despite having a several chances to win each of those games. Even last week against the Packers, the Chargers twice had the ball with a chance to tie the game late and simply could not get it done. Turnovers have been the Achilles’ heel for this team. In general turnovers are random, meaning that we can expect the turnover ratio to even out over a period of time. That is not true for the Chargers, however, as their turnovers are a Chargers systematic problem and not likely to regress to the mean.

Meagan’s Pick – San Diego -7.0

Juana’s Pick – Oakland +7.0

G-Dub’s Pick – San Diego -7.0

On the other hand, you have the Raiders, losers of two straight where they had no chance to win either game. But if we dig deeper into those games we see that we have logical explanations for the failures – the Chiefs game was started by the human interception machine, Kyle Boller and was, well, over before the lawyer by week, “spiked metal-head freak” Raider fan on Sunday had finished his first beer.

The loss to the Broncos was ugly but I offer three viable explanations – 1. The Broncos pulled out the gimmick collegiate “Zone Read” offense. Sure, the Raiders should have been able to stop it, but remember when the Dolphins unveiled the “Wildcat”, they drilled the Pats in Foxboro; 2. With Carson Palmer making his first start, the Raiders brain trust went with more of a passing attack to get him quickly acclimated. They’re clearly a running team and they had success running early in the game, but then went away from pounding the rock. Call this the “lose the battle to win the war” theory; and 3. This was a classic look-ahead game; the Raiders got caught lookin ahead to the Thursday night game against the Chargers.

I have made it a point to avoid laying more than a field goal with Norv Turner coached teams, in addition, I believe the Raiders are physically tougher. Their defense is the best unit on the field, good enough to win this game outright.

Pick: Oakland +7.0


 

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