NFL 2011 – Week Nine Picks

“Not dead yet” – Colin Wynner to NFL.

I realize 7-6, is not going to win me a “Super” contest, or for that matter the “Wynner” family contest and it’s akin to a “par” in golf, but it’s still a winning week, therefore, if that is as bad as it gets the for the remainder of the year, I will take that. I know I have a few weeks of 10-12 wins. If I throw in the fact that the Texans were graded as a push by my boys at Covers, I go 7-5-1 which is a nice, profitable 58%. Either way, it’s safe to assume that Colin’s is seen the bottom and is climbing his was out of the Abyss!

Note: I use the Las Vegas Hilton Lines from vegasinsider.com. The Super Contest lines are not live, but instead are set and held the entire week.

“Super Wynner Contest” Picks

Contestant

Colin

Juana

Megan

G-Dub

Last Week

7-6

6-7

9-4

11-2

Season Total

47-65-4

52-60-4

55-57-4

70-42-4

NY Jets @ Buffalo (-1.5)

Buffalo

NY Jets

Buffalo

NY Jets

Seattle @ Dallas(-11.5)

Dallas

Seattle

Seattle

Seattle

Atlanta(-7) @ Indianapolis

Indianapolis

Indianapolis

Indianapolis

Atlanta

Miami @ Kansas City(-4)

Miami

Kansas City

Miami

Kansas City

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans(-8)

New Orleans

New Orleans

New Orleans

Tampa Bay

San Francisco (-3.5) @ Washington

San Francisco

San Francisco

San Francisco

Washington

Cleveland @ Houston(-11)

Cleveland

Cleveland

Houston

Cleveland

Cincinnati @ Tennessee(-3)

Cincinnati

Tannessee

Tennessee

Cincinnati

Denver @ Oakland(-8)

Denver

Denver

Denver

Oakland

NY Giants @ New England(-8.5)

NY Giants

New England

New England

New England

St. Louis @ Arizona(-3.5)

Arizona

Arizona

Arizona

St. Louis

Green Bay(-5.5) @ San Diego

San Diego

Green Bay

San Diego

San Diego

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh(-3)

Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh

Baltimore

Chicago @ Philadelphia(-8)

Chicago

Chicago

Chicago

Philadelphia

  • I love two games this week where I feel like I have the better team but the spread is not reflective of that “fact”.
    • Buffalo is not only a better team than the Jets, but this will be like their Super Bowl, except they get to play it in front of their fans, yet I only have to lay 1.5 points, essentially a pick ’em! Oh, and the Jets play the Pats next week.
    • The Bengals/Titans line is the most perplexing line of the week! The Bengals are clearly better than the Titans, right? The Titans cannot run the ball, despite an investment of 53.5 million dollars. Further, they don’t possess a true number #1 receiver, which makes it tough on the passing game in a game with a defense that resembles an NFL defense. Yeah that is a shot at the Colts and a complement to the Bengals.
  • I plucked out the four games that I call the “over-reaction” lines and played the “value” side – Denver, NY Giants, San Diego and Chicago.
    • Oakland laying 8 is just too many points, and yeah I realize that Tim Tebow is playing quarterback for the Broncos and he is about as accurate blind man throwing darts, but Carson Palmer is playing quarterback for the Raiders, not exactly a guy inspires one to dump the monthly mortgage payment on his team. Plus, McFadden, who was the difference in the previous meeting, is out for the Raiders. That will make a difference in this game.
    • The Patriots, under Belichick, never lose two games in a row, in fact after a loss the Patriots are an amazing 27-13 ATS. So why I am playing the Giants? Because this information came to light earlier in the year when the Pats played the Raiders after losing to the Bills. Guess what? Now it’s such common knowledge that it is built into the line. Plus, the Giants have the weapons to follow the Steelers blueprint, spread out the Pats and throw all day long.
    • The books are getting tired of taking in the shorts at the hands of the Packers, so they push the line to the point the Chargers offer a nice value as a significant home team underdog. And, I don’t want to ruin the surprise but the Chargers are going to win this one.
    • Did you know that the “Dream Team” is back? Well, the public took note of the Eagles thrashing of the Cowboys on Sunday night and that means the books have to account for the massive number of bettors that will hammer the Eagles. Getting over a touchdown with a team known for taking the ball away playing a team prone to careless ball security is, well, easy money.
  • Finally, I am playing two “revenge” games – Pittsburgh and New Orleans.
    • I am happy to play the Steelers without having to lay anything more than a field goal. I simply don’t think the Ravens are that good, and they won their Super Bowl for 2011, week one against the Steelers. Don’t think the Steelers have forgotten the way the Ravens celebrated that victory.
    • The Saints aren’t losing this game to the Bucs after losing in Tampa earlier, so I got that going for me, but I think this game will be closer to meeting between these two teams last season – games where the Saints thoroughly dominated the Bucs. Sure, I am worried about the “karma” effect that the Saints have brought upon themselves for the total d-bag move of blitzing late in the game against the Colts, but last week may have been their payback against the Rams.

LVHSC: 2-3, 15-23-2 (Tied for 480th)

Week Eight Picks: Jacksonville (LOSS), Baltimore (LOSS), Buffalo (WIN), Pittsburgh (WIN) and Seattle (LOSS).


 

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