Wynner’s Weekly Fantasy CJ’s and Beasts – Week Four Edition

Welcome to the Wynner’s Weekly Fantasy CJ’s and Beasts, week four edition. With weeks four in the books the offensive explosion is the talk of the league. I am pretty sure this is what the NFL wants, unreal offense, no lead is safe – already we have seen 18, 20, 21 and 24 point leads lost and defenses that cannot get a stop when they need, well unless the opposing offense is being quarterbacked by Donovan McNabb.

The offensive fireworks are courtesy of the passing game and at the expense of the running games, long gone are the days of establishing the run. I have a couple of theories on why the passing game is dominating play this season – 1.Atrocious tackling in the secondary. In general, the defensive backs are the worst tacklers on the defense, therefore, when giving more chances they are more likely to miss more often; and 2. With onset of mass running back by committees, teams are signing more versatile running backs. Those running backs are better suited to the passing game and teams are taking advantage.

How crazy have the passing numbers been? Well, when looking at the NFL season record for the following categories – Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Rushing Yards, Rushing TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs, Scoring, Total TDs, and Total yards from scrimmage, eight are on pace to fall this season. The most ridiculous numbers are being put up in the passing yards category, where the record is 5,084, set in 1984 and held by the original hollow stat sheet stuffer, Dan Marino. Twenty-seven years later there are six, yes six, quarterbacks who are on pace to break that record – Brady (pace for 6212, on pace to break the record in the 1st quarter of game 14!), Brees (5640), Newton (5544), Rodgers (5300), Rivers(5144) and Romo (5092). In addition, nine more quarterbacks are on pace to throw for more than 4000 yards.

I never been a big fan of the “pace” stats, but it’s hard to overlook that there are 15 quarterbacks on pace to throw for 4000 plus yards, which would be the most in NFL history by 50% – 2009, 10 QB’s surpassed 4000 yards.

Other records poised to fall if “pace” continues:

Passing TD (50, Tom Brady, 2007) – Tom Brady, 52

Receptions (143, Marvin Harrison, 2002) – Wes Welker, 160

Receiving Yards (1848, Jerry Rice, 1995) – Wes Welker, 2464; Steve Smith, 2120

Receiving TDs (23, Randy Moss, 2007) – Calvin Johnson, 32

Yards From Scrimmage (2509, CJ199, 2009) – Wes Welker, 2540; Matt Forte, 2536

Total TD’s/Scoring(31/186, Ladanian Tomlinson, 2003) – Calvin Johnson, 32/192

 

CJ199 Update

I guess Chris Johnson had what his fantasy owners might term a “no effing way” game, finishing with 107 total yards. That was good enough for 11th place among running backs this week, but not good enough to get the column renamed to the Moreno’s.

The good news is that as of this week CJ199 should now be in regular season shape, after missing all of training camp this would represent CJ199’s pre-seaon. On the other hand, the bad news is his value has dropped so much that he isn’t worth much more Denario Alexander or at least that’s the way one owner sees it when he made an offer of Cam Newton and Denario for CJ199 and Larry Fitzgerald. There are some extenuating circumstances, like Newton is a 17th round keeper, the team with CJ199 is shaky at quarterback and the overall points scored match-up. But, yeah, I would advise against that deal, it’s better to ride out CJ199 and his 50 yards per game.

I inadvertently CJ’d all of you by not sharing the scoring system which I based these lists on. Pretty standard individual scoring – all touchdowns 6 points; .04 point per yard passing; .1 ppy rushing/receiving, points per receptions – .25 RB/.50 WR/1.00 all others; -1 per int; -3 for int return for TDs.

Defenses – 3 points for turnovers; 2 for sacks; .02 points per punt return yards; .04 points per KO yards; 3 points for blocked kicks; -.5 point for points allowed; scaled points for yards allowed from 10 for less than 50 yards allowed to -5 for more than 500 yards allowed.

Whew! Ok, here are the 10 fantasy CJ’s for week four, players who delivered a bag of diarrhea marked “Lunch” to their fantasy owner:

  1. Peyton Hillis, RB CLE

8.15 Fantasy Points

Position Place: 33rd

Start Pct: 85.84%

Hillis was on my bust list to start the season, so this isn’t all that surprising. Word on the street suggests that they are easing Hillis back into the mix after he missed as week – from strep throat! Just so we are on the same page, that’s strep throat that has caused Hillis to miss one game and be ineffective in another. Man, strep in a highly under-rated fantasy saboteur. I sure hope Hillis doesn’t come down with a running nose next week that keeps him out for another couple weeks.

Going forward – Once you’re on my bust list, you’re a bust!

 

  1. Atlanta Falcons DT

-5.66 Fantasy Points

Position Place: 24th

Start Pct: 75.65%

The Falcons played the Seahawks in week four, creating a free agent frenzy to get a piece of a defense that was playing against a team that opposing defenses had averaged 22 points a game. Yeah, how did that work out for you?

Going forward – This was the game for the Falcons, the easiest game on their schedule. I think we now know they have one of the five worst fantasy defenses in the NFL.

 

  1. Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB BUF

8.46 Fantasy Points

Position Place: 27th

Start Pct: 65.14%

You know what rhymes with “Fitzpatrick”? “ShitsHisPantsTrick” – did you see him do that this weekend?

Going forward – A fluke, Fitz will put up numbers because (a) he has the weapons; (b) the defense is not good, meaning shootouts; (c) the Bengals have a very good, under-rated defense and (d) he want to Harvard. Yeah, that last thing means nothing, but did you know Fitz actually went to Harvard.

 

  1. Ben Roethlisberger, QB PIT

8.34 Fantasy Points

Position Place: 28th

Start Pct: 64.00%

I think I prefer the sex-crazed, female groping, “Do you know who I am?” Big Ben, as opposed to the docile, married, humble Benjamin. At least Big Ben put up huge fantasy numbers.

Going forward – His o-line sucks, meaning he most likely will be hurt very soon. Therefore, you should look for a trade, but not a Newton/Alexander for Fitzgerald/Chris Johnson type of a deal

 

  1. Philadelphia, DT

-1.32 Fantasy Points

Position Place: 16th

Start Pct: 90.62%

90.62 pecent of owners salivated at the Eagles home match-up with Alex Smith and the 49ers. 9.38 percent of owners got the last laugh. The Eagles are a surprise entry into the “Column Name” contest, should CJ199 ever break the top three running backs for the week. What a major disappointment!

Going forward – They aren’t that good to begin with and now they lost, arguably, their best pass rusher in Trent Cole. No sack = no sacks!

 

  1. David Nelson, WR BUF

2.8 Fantasy Points

Position Place: 85th

Start Pct: 62.35%

Nelson was the hot free agent pick-up in week three. As you can tell by the 62.35% of the owners who started Nelson they thought they were getting 2009 Brandon Lloyd, instead they got David Nelson.

Going forward – If you like playing reverse Russian Roulette then continue to roll the dice or pull the trigger with Nelson. One of these weeks you will get the empty chamber!

 

  1. Torrey Smith, WR BAL

0.6 Fantasy Points

Position Place: 108th

Start Pct: 40.48%

Smith was the hot free agent this past week, after he went nuts against the Rams. I mentioned last week that owners should “calm down, it was the Rams” and labeled him as a Pretender. I guess the 0.6 this week makes me a winner!

Going forward – Rags to Riches to Rags, in two weeks.

 

  1. Ladanian Tomlinson, RB NYJ

0.35 Fantasy Points

Position Place: 90th

Start Pct: 33.29%

Anytime there is a “0.” in front of a players fantasy score, it’s not good! Kudos to the 66.71% who benched him, those owners are smart!

Going forward – The Jets offense is a mess. They have no identity, the line is atrocious and Tomlinson isn’t getting a ton of touches, so I would bail on him or wait for a cherry match-up where the Jets can pile up big numbers, if one exists.

  1. Tim Hightower, RB WAS

3.05 Fantasy Points

Position Place: 56th

Start Pct: 81.47%

It’s tough to get on Hightower for the lack of production when we all know who is to blame. I am talking to you, Mike Shanahan. Shanahan hates fantasy football despite the fact that fantasy football pays his salary. Don’t believe me – outlaw fantasy football for a season. Watch the ratings drop faster and further than Obama’s approval rate. That’s right the only reason the NFL is as popular as it is because of fantasy football. The NFL should fine this donkey for misleading the fantasy public.

Going forward – Well, unless Goodell starts punishing the real criminals in the NFL, Shanahan will be free to play mind games with fantasy owners. Hightower is solid but beware.

 

  1. Rob Gronkowski, TE NEP

2.5 Fantasy Points

Position Place: 39th

Start Pct: 98.96%

Ouch, Gronk that hurt. With a name like Gronkowski, don’t you think that this guy was one of those guys that it hurt to run into. And not run into in a physical sport, like football, I mean just bump into in the hallway. You know the kind of guy whose elbows just hurt!

Going forward – He will be fine, unless the reason for this bust was that Belichick sold high on him.

 

Enough of focusing on the fantasy losers, let’s talk fantasy beasts for week four! Here are the top 10 fantasy beasts for last week, with a new categories this week – Bust, one week wonder; Boom, look for this player to continue dropping bombs like a Labrador after they snuck into the family pantry:

 

  1. Cam Newton, QB CAR

32.46 Fantasy Points

Position Place: 3rd

Start Pct: 50.35%

Cam is getting to the point where you can’t (a) have him on your bench and (b) bet against him. Boom

 

  1. Julio Jones, WR ATL

18.2 Fantasy Points

Position Place: 11th

Start Pct: 58.59%

Julio needs to find the end-zone, but this guy is killing it with receptions and targets. So much so that I wonder if Roddy White is still on board with the Falcons moving up to get Julio. This summer, Roddy called the Falcons the second coming of “the greatest show on turf” this summer. Sure, I guess so, Roddy, if the original greatest show didn’t have Marshall Faulk, Isaac Bruce or Az Hakim. Then that would make Julio, Torry Holt, which makes Roddy, Tony Horne. Boom.

 

 

  1. Frank Gore, RB SF

20.4 Fantasy Points

Position Place: 5th

Start Pct: 2.00%

You see what happens when you get threatened with being the “Name” behind the weekly fantasy Beaut’s? Gore didn’t want any part of that and showed up with a season best. But less than 2% of fantasy owners had him in his lineup thanks to Shanahan-lite, Jim Harbaugh. Look Jim just because you spent most of your fantasy life on waivers, doesn’t mean you have to blatantly lie to us. Still, Gore is destined to be a Bust, whether it’s because of an injury or poor performance. Remember there are not many defenses like the Eagles in the NFL this season.

 

  1. Matt Forte, RB Chi

29.8 Fantasy Points

Position Place: 2nd

Start Pct: 97.79%

Forte is one of those guys that goes largely un-noticed on draft day, but after a couple of weeks it’s like “DOH”. He had one bust season, his second in the NFL, but other than that the guy has been a player. Boom!

    

  1. Pierre Garcon, WR IND

27.6 Fantasy Points

Position Place: 1st

Start Pct: 19.56%

Whoa, did you see how fast Pierre was on Monday. He ran like he was being chased by a Nazi. I am a little concern about Curtis Painter, but if Monday is any indication, Pierre might finally live up to expectations. Boom!

  1. Tavaris Jackson, QB SEA

30.36 Fantasy Points

Position Place: 4th

Start Pct: 5.00%

I want the contact information of the 5.00% who started Tavaris this past week. Seriously, I am starting a $10,000/team fantasy league, winner take all. Bust

 

  1. Jimmy Graham, TE NOS

29.2 Fantasy Points

Position Place: 1st

Start Pct: 89.46%

It’s nice to see a New Orleans position player having some fantasy success. Honestly, is there a team in the NFL that is a bigger melting pot of fantasy mediocrity? They have had like 12 fantasy players a season for the last six years or so. Not since Marcus Colston rookie season, have they had a position player worthy of a weekly NFL start without fear of a 2 point fantasy day. Boom.

 

  1. Baltimore, DT

34.12 Fantasy Points

Position Place: 1st

Start Pct: 89.56%

The Ravens defense spent Sunday on a feeding on the Jets offense. I really felt like this defense would show its age this season, but then I glanced at their schedule, which is a complete joke – in addition to the Browns and Bengals twice, they get the NFC West, the AFC South. That’s nine more games against weak offensive teams. That is almost too good to be true! Boom.

 

  1. Chris Wells, RB ARZ

31.8 Fantasy Points

Position Place: 1st

Start Pct: 29.37%

I really happy to see Beanie playing as well as he is, but I would be remiss if I didn’t mention that this guy spent his first two seasons in Bustville – population Beanie. I am not sure what motivated this guy to start bringing this kind of effort that didn’t motivate him when he fell to #31 in the 2009 NFL Draft. To be honest, I think Beanie needed to be “the guy” in Arizona. This year, through the Hightower trade and the injury to Ryan Williams, he is the guy, the Cardinals need him and viola, top notch fantasy running back! Boom.

 

  1. Aaron Rodgers, QB GB

54.92 Fantasy Points

Position Place: 1st

Start Pct: 98.85%

I think Rodgers game against the Broncos is the definition of the “no effing way” fantasy game. Think about it, A-Rod vultures two rushing touchdowns, throws four touchdown passes, piles up 408 passing yards and added 36 yards rushing. And then adds salt into the fresh wound by giving way to Matt Flynn for the kneel downs, thus not incurring the -.2 points. Cold blooded killah! Boom.

 

When it comes to fantasy past, current and futures, Colin Wynner calls the fantasy winners!

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